*Official* Shiny Things club - Part 2

[nyl3v3]

You're on the right track! And yeah, it's annoying that MBKE have discontinued the MIP; your best bet for now is POSB for ES3 and MBH (actually it'll be G3B and A35, for stocks and bonds respectively), and Stanchart for IWDA.

OH! okay! I was looking up and down for ES3 and MBH on POSB IS website. Haha! I read a few pages before, BBCWatcher advised to buy SSB instead of A35. May I know what the differences are? Any pros and cons to buying either of them? (I know u have mentioned that for bonds aspect, SSB can be bought too.)

Thanks again!

 

[assiak71]

OH! okay! I was looking up and down for ES3 and MBH on POSB IS website. Haha! I read a few pages before, BBCWatcher advised to buy SSB instead of A35. May I know what the differences are? Any pros and cons to buying either of them? (I know u have mentioned that for bonds aspect, SSB can be bought too.)

Thanks again!

Do consider VWRA in place of IWDA

 

[swan02]

If you are extremely particular about risk, then all the more your risk should be assessed on a total portfolio basis. If you are willing to put in money and time, you can even perform Monte Carlo simulations on your portfolio, no problem.

I cannot fathom why you are so fixated on a binary classification towards fixed income. As if it's either ABF, or nothing. As Shiny Things pointed out, even ABF has HDB and LTA bonds inside, though their proportions are small.

https://www.nikkoam.com.sg/files/documents/funds/fact_sheet/abf2_fs.pdf

If you are concerned about this, then you just buy and hold SSB and SGS. AAA sovereign. Low risk by your definition. You can sleep peacefully now (although if you are this worried, you probably ought to see a sleep specialist).

I'm at 20/80 AA. I do see my AA as a whole. I retired 5 years back to be accurate, with AA geared towards high equity but as I return to Singapore for good (didnt plan to initially), have experienced terrible FX sequential loss.

And that's why I follow conventional retirement strategies of low equity allocation at start of retirement and rising over time quickly and seek to eliminate completely any FX risk.

Many bloggers have performed the monte carlo simulations and I have played with it many times. The conclusion due to my low SWR which can go as low as 2.9% if needed allows me to begin at 20/80 instead of 30/70 which seem to be more advisable but could not bring myself to due to low risk appetite. Equity will increase by 5% every year till 80 or 100 percent.

Ya I'm not a perfect fan of ABF. I used to bitch about ABF due to its quasi govt features. I only wish there were a TER 0.07%, pure AAA SGD govt bond ETF with great liquidity. We need Vanguard for retail investors for a start in Singapore. We seem to be side stepped.

 

[swan02]

dear swan02,

just to let u know, i think my networth exceeded yours...
and sorry, i didn't even participate in 2008's recession.
and to add salt to the wound... I didn't even start at 2008, haha.
in short, you have been working in an extremely inefficient manner, i guess?

however, to think that just because i didn't go through that, it makes me any less experienced than you is a joke.

from what u are investing in, it's a losing instrument.

gold & fixed-income instruments (are they capital-guaranteed as well?) are losing instruments.

I haven't worked for hmm, closed to a decade too. but that's not to say it affected my income at all. work being defined as anything more than hmm, 25 hours a week.

welcome to the gig economy, where cycles are really short and you learn fast, apply and catch the next wave while you are at the first wave.

when you wrote on this thread, it's obvious that you are incapable to learn and that's the problem.

i guess you went all gov-loving and invested in whatever the sg gov took interest in? can't blame us for that, no?

any average joes who went w temasek... would die v badly, because temasek is a freaking whale.

i know some clowns and mind u, those dumbos are schooled from nus and work in the local loserish banks... they followed temasek when they invested in msia's slumland and look where are they now? crying.

now, now, if u are one of those sg gov-loving type, you only have yourself to blame.

go pick up jack bogle's tome, random walk to wall street and undo the damage you did to yourself, old man. not too late yet.

or if u have problems reading, at least, pick up shiny thing's rich by retirement.

but i think i know your kind, it's us$10 and it's too expensive for you, right?

cheaper to lose on big with your failing ways in punting at paper gold and fixed-income tickets then?

which brings me to ask u, so why are u here since u are a stick-in-the-mud?

???

oh ya, so sorry, i am against day-trading too.
but i guess some people can trendspot and most can't.
so stay out of it, if u can't.
just stick w Shiny Things... he makes it really simple for us to adopt the winning ways.

and be nice and buy a copy of his book because it's only decent that we pay him for his effort.

I can't apply Shiny's book or bogle if it does not help in a 60 year retirement or forever. It applies well in the first part of money accumulation.

I have not read Shiny's book but after reading all post since beginning, have not seen information geared towards early retirement. It is because I don't have 5 million USD that I have to seek alternatives to just bogle 30 year time frame (and I have read his book). Any bogle books for a 60 year retirement ? tell me.

Can you at least write just a hint in Shiny's book that writes about the survival of a 60 year retirement time frame of a SGD domiciled investor, and I'll consider seriously about buying. I don't want a book "rich by retirement". I want a "still rich after 60 years in retirement".

I have not come across such books and I hope he'll consider writing his next book covering this in my opinion a complex area of psychology in the context of a Singapore investor. Retirement investing is no joke. No external income causes many sleepless nights.

and Yes I'm a cheapo, that's how I can FIRE even with my meager salary. Shiny seem to disc property investments but I do hope he also realises property has helped many to make good money ---a huge advantage for low risk appetite individuals wanting to dabble into a risky asset class such as property and stocks and not having to see RED causing you psychological sleepless night.

I will still end up with high risk assets allocation after taking into account physical property as a total investment portfolio.

I can't lose big if just 10% in gold.

Look again, I understood low allocation to equity is a problem. I already mention a 80/20 or 100% equity is advisable and I'm aiming for it. I just do not want sequential risk destroying me and me having to return to a most hated job and hence start low but accelerate quickly in 10 years. Soon next year i'll be 25%. Still better than a let say 30/70 for life or 50/50.

You have been retired for close 10 years starting 2009 and 2010 and yet not participated in the GFC ?, and yet has a portfolio greater than mine. and yet not dabble in stock picking and timing ?

How the hell are you able to retire when your investment time frame prior to retirement is so short. Something does not gel well. Perhaps you could share your experiences ?

Mine is simple.

1. Save like a pauper and live like one e.g. rented room and cook.
2. work hard
3. invest 100% risky assets while holding a job. 20% in equities, 80% in physical properties.
4. Investing in risky assets becomes easy when you can sleep and that's my formula.
4. Achieve FIRE 7 years. Thank you to QE

Plan upon recession in ? 2020 or 2021 ?
5. Aiming to repeat this but to seek out a low stress low pay job upon a recession hopefully soon.
6. Simple formula, simple life and can sleep.

 

[Listopad]

I can't apply Shiny's book or bogle if it does not help in a 60 year retirement or forever. It applies well in the first part of money accumulation.

I have not read Shiny's book but after reading all post since beginning, have not seen information geared towards early retirement. It is because I don't have 5 million USD that I have to seek alternatives to just bogle 30 year time frame (and I have read his book). Any bogle books for a 60 year retirement ? tell me.

Can you at least write just a hint in Shiny's book that writes about the survival of a 60 year retirement time frame of a SGD domiciled investor, and I'll consider seriously about buying. I don't want a book "rich by retirement". I want a "still rich after 60 years in retirement".

I have not come across such books and I hope he'll consider writing his next book covering this in my opinion a complex area of psychology in the context of a Singapore investor. Retirement investing is no joke. No external income causes many sleepless nights.

and Yes I'm a cheapo, that's how I can FIRE even with my meager salary. Shiny seem to disc property investments but I do hope he also realises property has helped many to make good money ---a huge advantage for low risk appetite individuals wanting to dabble into a risky asset class such as property and stocks and not having to see RED causing you psychological sleepless night.

I will still end up with high risk assets allocation after taking into account physical property as a total investment portfolio.

I can't lose big if just 10% in gold.

Look again, I understood low allocation to equity is a problem. I already mention a 80/20 or 100% equity is advisable and I'm aiming for it. I just do not want sequential risk destroying me and me having to return to a most hated job and hence start low but accelerate quickly in 10 years. Soon next year i'll be 25%. Still better than a let say 30/70 for life or 50/50.

You have been retired for close 10 years starting 2009 and 2010 and yet not participated in the GFC ?, and yet has a portfolio greater than mine. and yet not dabble in stock picking and timing ?

How the hell are you able to retire when your investment time frame prior to retirement is so short. Something does not gel well. Perhaps you could share your experiences ?

Mine is simple.

1. Save like a pauper and live like one e.g. rented room and cook.
2. work hard
3. invest 100% risky assets while holding a job. 20% in equities, 80% in physical properties.
4. Investing in risky assets becomes easy when you can sleep and that's my formula.
4. Achieve FIRE 7 years. Thank you to QE

Plan upon recession in ? 2020 or 2021 ?
5. Aiming to repeat this but to seek out a low stress low pay job upon a recession hopefully soon.
6. Simple formula, simple life and can sleep.

how long have you been living in Singapore ?

 

[swan02]

OH! okay! I was looking up and down for ES3 and MBH on POSB IS website. Haha! I read a few pages before, BBCWatcher advised to buy SSB instead of A35. May I know what the differences are? Any pros and cons to buying either of them? (I know u have mentioned that for bonds aspect, SSB can be bought too.)

Thanks again!

In my opinion.

1. SSB an asset class by itself providing as close as possible to TIPs features i.e. allow you in a short time frame enjoy a higher interest rate when interest rate rises, and yet not being affected by falling bond values. Whereas ABF will fall when interest rates rises.

2. Bonds such as ABF have become more positively correlated to equities over the years and runs the risk of both equities and bonds falling when interest rate rises. SSB then serves its purpose of not being affected, with dual purpose to either reinvested with a higher yield or take advantage of fallen values in equity and bonds during your rebalancing of your AA.

 

[swan02]

how long have you been living in Singapore ?

Overseas most of my working life. That's the first hint that only overseas property can be afforded at a young age.

 

[Listopad]

Overseas most of my working life. That's the first hint that only overseas property can be afforded at a young age.

am thinking along the lines if you have fully considered & experienced how high of a standard of living in Singapore, as compared to say Australia. sure, we can practice frugality but when you have a family with kids...

 

[nyl3v3]

Do consider VWRA in place of IWDA

Why so? I read that it's very new though. I am just following closely to ST's book.

And can it be bought on SCB too? How about splitting the portion for IWDA (40%) to VWRA (20%) and IWDA (20%) how does that work? I am exploring options here.

 

[swan02]

am thinking along the lines if you have fully considered & experienced how high of a standard of living in Singapore, as compared to say Australia. sure, we can practice frugality but when you have a family with kids...

I have a family and two young kids and practising frugality for ages.

1. I don't follow the trend: i.e. tuition tuition and is costly
2. But already the wife is forcing cash out on silly activities such as chinese classes, sciences and many more con job activities.
3. I teach math to my son and he is a high achieving student both overseas and locally. Only issue is Chinese and will be facing lots of problems.
4. its been 11 months and I monitor our expenses regularly. I find that I'm spending **** money on medical and dental but still very cheap with the school dental system. But recently one son requires bracers costing me a grand for cosmetic purpose which is not very subsidised. And also being older age, strange things seem to disfigure my once beautiful skin and require cosmetic surgery perhaps.
5. Dislike visiting doctor simply to attain an MC for my kid. I avoid any form of medicine which GPs here seem to over prescribed for simply symptom relief. I have not bought a single any since arriving back in SG.
6. Still enjoying all the perks of a HDB dweller but keen to look to selling it up. The way the social system works seem to disadvantage private property owners.
7. Since we don't have debt. Our monthly expenses has fluctuating between 3k to 5k SGD but mainly because of reckless spending and holidays- too many for a retiree. I keep term insurances and affordable hospital and avoid critical health or personal accident or any form of investment linked products.
8. I don't see how high a standard of living in SG compared to Aus. It is just as good in AUS, especially better in the work environment than SG. I've worked in commerce in SG in my early days and it sucks. As for cost of living, AUS is cheaper definitely but only because the AUD depreciated significantly.
9. So I avoid foreign potato chips and do not drink Cappucinos as frequently as before but grew accustomed to cheap local coffee.
10. Food is cheap in SG but causing me high cholesterol.
11. If all things fail, then I'll start bin diving and getting free food or work in Macdonalds.

 

[littleredboy]

I find swan replies quite amusing. You seem to 看透了世界hahaha. Hope you educate your kids on financial planning too. Tbh, I find music classes most beneficial for kids, let them more agile-thinking.

 

[tangent314]

3. I'm an early retiree. I'm aware a high asset allocation to equities is warranted to last minimum 60 years. However, I'm of one who has been through year 2000 and 2008 crashes and have very low appetite for risk and do not subscribe to jack bogle of 110 - age or 100- age that sort

It's a bit weird to use the 2008 financial crisis as an example to avoid equities. S&P500 was ~1433 exactly 12 years ago just before the crisis, and ~2926 today. Even if you were unfortunate enough to lump sum everything in on August 2007, today you would have achieved an IRR of 6.13%.

Anyway, if you find the rule of 110 too 'aggressive' for you, typically the preferred strategy will be to simply tune it to a rule of 100 instead.

Also, SWR isn't necessarily the best strategy for Singaporeans. CPF and CPF Life allows for some more optimal strategy, even for those that intend to retire early.

 

[mrsomosaka]

Hi Shiny Things, and everyone..

I'm new to this thread and new to the investment side.

I accidentally stumbled upon this thread last month and been reading it religiously trying to understand the investment advices in this thread.

Hope anyone can advise me on my situation especially I'm totally noob with this.

Details about me:

- I'm Bruneian, live and working in Brunei at the moment. And may retire in Brunei too.
- 33 yrs old and married with no children.
- I don't have any loan but my wife's got car loan with 2 years payment to go and personal loan (for wedding):/
- Got Brunei Dollar B$40k in local bank (for emergency fund) with very low interest of less than 1.75% per annum.
- We both working and manage to save about B$3k per month to our savings account.

- We have about B$30k to invest and about B$1.5k to B$2k to invest monthly.
- we have some money automatically put in scheme something similar to Singapore's CPF and will only able to withdraw it after 55 years old.

I need advice on how should I start my investment.

1) Should I go for something similar to Singaporean's one considering that currency we have are similar to Singapore Dollar.
- Local equity ES3 40%
- International Vwrd or Iwda+Eimi 40%
- Local bond A35 20%

Or should I just go for just international bonds and stocks. Can you suggest any good ones so I can do some due diligence on them.

2) which brokerage account should i open for starting my investment? ibkr or any other suggestions?

We have local bank Baiduri that allows trading ETF but only from US, Singapore, HK and China stock exchange. However, they charge ridiculous amount per trading with minimum no. Of trading per month.

3) How about the the Non US tax. Will it apply to my country? Considering there's no income tax in Brunei. and no agreement between Brunei and US.

Sorry for the long post. Any advice will be sincerely appreciated. Especially from the wise ones in this thread.

 

[Han Shot First]

Why so? I read that it's very new though. I am just following closely to ST's book.

And can it be bought on SCB too? How about splitting the portion for IWDA (40%) to VWRA (20%) and IWDA (20%) how does that work? I am exploring options here.

VWRA is similar to VWRD except that it is accumulating ETF rather than distributing ETF. It is just a share class with a recent inception date. However, the inception date of the actual fund is the same as that for VWRD because it is the same fund.

Yes, VWRA can be bought on SCB. I checked. Surprisingly, VWRA cannot be bought on Phillip POEMS platform currently. I checked. Perhaps because of its recency.

If you split IWDA (40%) to VWRA (20%) and IWDA (20%), keep in mind that VWRA has emerging market stock constituents. So it is not exactly the same thing.

 

[Han Shot First]

It's a bit weird to use the 2008 financial crisis as an example to avoid equities. S&P500 was ~1433 exactly 12 years ago just before the crisis, and ~2926 today. Even if you were unfortunate enough to lump sum everything in on August 2007, today you would have achieved an IRR of 6.13%.

If the S&P500 index has such a good / decent performance for the last 12 years (even with the 2008 financial crisis), why is it always recommended on this thread that it is a very bad idea to accumulate S&P500 ETF but it is a very good idea to accumulate IWDA and / or VWRD?

And why are we recommended to accumulate IWDA and / or VWRD when Shiny Things himself says he is accumulating SPY for his own investment portfolio?

 

[pmstudent]

If the S&P500 index has such a good / decent performance for the last 12 years (even with the 2008 financial crisis), why is it always recommended on this thread that it is a very bad idea to accumulate S&P500 ETF but it is a very good idea to accumulate IWDA and / or VWRD?

And why are we recommended to accumulate IWDA and / or VWRD when Shiny Things himself says he is accumulating SPY for his own investment portfolio?

Did Shiny mention he is accumulating SPY instead?

 

[swan02]

It's a bit weird to use the 2008 financial crisis as an example to avoid equities. S&P500 was ~1433 exactly 12 years ago just before the crisis, and ~2926 today. Even if you were unfortunate enough to lump sum everything in on August 2007, today you would have achieved an IRR of 6.13%.

Anyway, if you find the rule of 110 too 'aggressive' for you, typically the preferred strategy will be to simply tune it to a rule of 100 instead.

Also, SWR isn't necessarily the best strategy for Singaporeans. CPF and CPF Life allows for some more optimal strategy, even for those that intend to retire early.

In retrospect, it is easy to say yeh I've gotten annualised X percentage and therefore the AA works. Try that when you see your 120k portfolio drop in half and the money is the world to you at a young age.

Now try that for someone who has never experienced a crisis to say, I'm ok with a let say 20% drop in a 50/50 portfolio and you are handling 1.5 to 2million a typical amount to retire, for a red of 400k !. I would faint, I don't see percentages, I see absolute amount like many normal layman do, and then I relate back to all the overtime I've done and blood I sweat and the horrors of perhaps having to go back to work.

Again I reiterate, the core message I'm sending is "sleep". I don't encourage to have anything less than 100% in equities or risky assets while working and young and prior to 7 years to retirement, but being retired is a whole new ball game even more so a young retiree.

I'm not exactly avoiding equities. I have had a close to 100 percent portfolio in equities up till mid 2018 prior to returning to SG.

As I have mentioned, I learn to appreciate the dangers of sequential risk due to FX as the initial aim was to remain overseas. It has caused me many nightmares as FX risk is not being rewarded.

With the new found appreciation for sequence risk (and experiencing one), I then find evidence of a lower equity allocation of between 20 to 50 or 60 percent at the outset of retirement to manage sequence risk for the first 10 years being the danger zone assuming future expected rate of returns are pretty much similar....however if we are expecting a lower rate of future returns, there are arguments to accelerate the glide path upwards from retirement even quicker. So although I'm so called a low risk taker, but eventually will end up a close to 100% equity allocation. When one has millions, even a low risk taker can be comfortable with 100% in equities and then in 10-12 years after having millions now, I shall tell everyone wah, my appetite for risk is now very high....is it really true I am ?, prolly not.

I can't understand how a 100-age would help an early retiree. So if a person retires at 30, and hence still maintains a 70% in equities and then if being unlucky faces huge losses in the first few years of retirement he is unlikely able to recover not to mention a long 60 year retirement. This 100- age or 110 to cater to longevity seem to suit very well for a typical retiree at 65 and to last 30 years of retirement only. The survival rate of a balance portfolio of 50/50 is good, not so for a 30/70. Both won't survive a 60 year retirement.

SWR I believe is the gold standard yard stick for retirement planning. I do not know of any other methods other than SWR, which is useful to discover your portfolio prospects for 60 years.
I just need somebody to do the statistical math that incorporates ES3 into the equity picture.

And I'm not a fan for ES3 but can't find anything better accept incorporating SG reits and stock picking along with some ES3, or choose to have a higher exposure to international equities as evidence from research I've read of 63 percent international to 37 percent Singapore which is close to what Vanguard appear to prescribe although with a 20 percent hedged position.

CPF life and macdonalds are my buffers. I should know whether I need it in 10 years. CPF life will improve my SWR easily.

 

[swan02]

If the S&P500 index has such a good / decent performance for the last 12 years (even with the 2008 financial crisis), why is it always recommended on this thread that it is a very bad idea to accumulate S&P500 ETF but it is a very good idea to accumulate IWDA and / or VWRD?

And why are we recommended to accumulate IWDA and / or VWRD when Shiny Things himself says he is accumulating SPY for his own investment portfolio?

Speaking for myself. Although I hold large amounts of IWDA. Being human, at the back of my head still believe in the future of VUSD and EIMI only. So the devil is telling me heck it..just VUSD and EIMI or China stocks and local pure SG reits and bonds are IGLO and ABF. What a nice combo and simplicity. And IGLO is cheap with a cap transaction cost, unlike ABF

So this percentage is growing slowly.

 

[swan02]

Hi Shiny Things, and everyone..

I'm new to this thread and new to the investment side.

I accidentally stumbled upon this thread last month and been reading it religiously trying to understand the investment advices in this thread.

Hope anyone can advise me on my situation especially I'm totally noob with this.

Details about me:

- I'm Bruneian, live and working in Brunei at the moment. And may retire in Brunei too.
- 33 yrs old and married with no children.
- I don't have any loan but my wife's got car loan with 2 years payment to go and personal loan (for wedding):/
- Got Brunei Dollar B$40k in local bank (for emergency fund) with very low interest of less than 1.75% per annum.
- We both working and manage to save about B$3k per month to our savings account.

- We have about B$30k to invest and about B$1.5k to B$2k to invest monthly.
- we have some money automatically put in scheme something similar to Singapore's CPF and will only able to withdraw it after 55 years old.

I need advice on how should I start my investment.

1) Should I go for something similar to Singaporean's one considering that currency we have are similar to Singapore Dollar.
- Local equity ES3 40%
- International Vwrd or Iwda+Eimi 40%
- Local bond A35 20%

Or should I just go for just international bonds and stocks. Can you suggest any good ones so I can do some due diligence on them.

2) which brokerage account should i open for starting my investment? ibkr or any other suggestions?

We have local bank Baiduri that allows trading ETF but only from US, Singapore, HK and China stock exchange. However, they charge ridiculous amount per trading with minimum no. Of trading per month.

3) How about the the Non US tax. Will it apply to my country? Considering there's no income tax in Brunei. and no agreement between Brunei and US.

Sorry for the long post. Any advice will be sincerely appreciated. Especially from the wise ones in this thread.

Personally if I were a Bruneirian. I will invest as a Singaporean. The main issue is really FX exposure which is SGD and hence bonds and equities at least partially should reflect SGD and thus your peg currency. FX risk is really damaging. I know it first hand.

IBKR of cause.

IWDA and many of the irish ETF are recommended in this site to circumvent an additional 15 percent dividend tax and to some, estate taxes of amount greater than 60k USD. Plus there isn't any capital gains tax, but there might be for much much large amounts ?

There isn't CGT as far as I know even with USA domiciled ETFs for non resident for tax purposes of USA. But beware of the 30% tax on dividends if no agreement.

 

[swan02]

I find swan replies quite amusing. You seem to 看透了世界hahaha. Hope you educate your kids on financial planning too. Tbh, I find music classes most beneficial for kids, let them more agile-thinking.

If Papa is able to double my money in 10 years. I will teach my kids and write a book "rich in retirement for 60 years" together with another book "CPF life is great for the poor, not so for the enlightened"

and just before I die at close to 100 or 120, will write another sequel boasting "Still very rich in retirement forever".

With all the merits of music. I find it a costly exercise and detrimental to financial planning. How many of such kids enjoy such torture ? but then again as the saying don't fight the FED.............don't fight the wife.