Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

[chrisloh65]

Jack Bogle makes lots of money selling index funds and index ETFs to people who buy and hold index funds and index ETFs. Jack Bogle is NOT a illuminating investor himself. It is in the interest of Jack Bogle that you all keep buying and holding index ETFs in the long-term so that he can continue to charge management fees on these index ETFs, and that is what makes him rich!

That is why you need to differentiate between a "businessman" making Billions $ selling you products like "index ETFs" (example Jack Bogle) vs "investor" who make Billions $ making correct investment (example Michael Burry).

Since when I am calling names? If I do, I am probably just reciprocating.
Anyway, I have also backup my comments and my views with reason and explanation as well as facts. My main aim is just to call out the donkeys masquerading as horses and telling them to stop bluffing, that is all. The final decision is up to you.

Lol, wanna have a healthy discussion also cannot.
You keep calling names at those who DCA into index fund. Correct me if I'm wrong, DCA-ing into index fund is following Jack Bogle right?

Your life must be really interesting to come here and call people out and calling people names everyday just because people think differently from you.

If you are just following blindly and not providing any reason/explanation of why you are "following", then I see no difference between you and those "self-trumpet".

 

[hellvolhardzelinsky]

Jack Bogle makes lots of money selling index funds and index ETFs to people who buy and hold index funds and index ETFs. Jack Bogle is NOT a illuminating investor himself. It is in the interest of Jack Bogle that you all keep buying and holding index ETFs in the long-term so that he can continue to charge management fees on these index ETFs, and that is what makes him rich!

That is why you need to differentiate between a "businessman" making Billions $ selling you products like "index ETFs" (example Jack Bogle) vs "investor" who make Billions $ making correct investment (example Michael Burry).

Since when I am calling names? If I do, I am probably just reciprocating.
Anyway, I have also backup my comments and my views with reason and explanation as well as facts. My main aim is just to call out the donkeys masquerading as horses and telling them to stop bluffing, that is all. The final decision is up to you.

Yea, understand your points. Why don't you start your own thread and share with us your philosophy? I believe everyone is free to follow whatever to find true. It's like people still buy ILP even when they are not ideal according to everyone on the internet.

Please share with us your investment philosophy.

 

[chrisloh65]

I am already sharing here. There is no need for my own thread because I don't like to write a lot, and I have no interest to sell any book and provide any consultancy service here to spend so much time in this forum.
If those people here can stop insulting me and stop making nasty comments against me, then I will be willing to share more, otherwise no point sharing with those donkeys for insulting me and yet benefiting off my knowledge.

Yea, understand your points. Why don't you start your own thread and share with us your philosophy? I believe everyone is free to follow whatever to find true. It's like people still buy ILP even when they are not ideal according to everyone on the internet.

Please share with us your investment philosophy.

 

[hellvolhardzelinsky]

I am already sharing here. There is no need for my own thread because I don't like to write a lot, and I have no interest to sell any book and provide any consultancy service here to spend so much time in this forum.
If those people here can stop insulting me and making nasty comments against me, then I will be willing to share more, otherwise no point sharing with those donkeys for insulting me and yet benefiting off my knowledge.

Please link your post that you shared.
Funny thing you said you don't wanna spend so much time consulting people here. But you actually already spent a lot of time here countering index funds. Contradicting no?

Maybe if you spend the time in your own thread and explain about that, there will be less "donkeys" here.

 

[chrisloh65]

I will pop in as and when I like it to any of the threads in HWZ. It should be easy for you to search my posts. I don't like any obligation here since Sometimes I will disappear for a few weeks!

Please link your post that you shared.
Funny thing you said you don't wanna spend so much time consulting people here. But you actually already spent a lot of time here countering index funds. Contradicting no?

Maybe if you spend the time in your own thread and explain about that, there will be less "donkeys" here.

 

[hellvolhardzelinsky]

I am already sharing here. There is no need for my own thread because I don't like to write a lot, and I have no interest to sell any book and provide any consultancy service here to spend so much time in this forum.
If those people here can stop insulting me and stop making nasty comments against me, then I will be willing to share more, otherwise no point sharing with those donkeys for insulting me and yet benefiting off my knowledge.

https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/warren-buffett-recommends-index-funds-for-most-investors

Hey Chris loh, I think you're right, I shouldn't listen to the people here who recommended dca into index fund. They have no knowledge and are nobody compared to Michael Burry.

I found this article about the reputable Warren buffet.
He recommended index fund, should I trust him since he's also reputable?

 

[chrisloh65]

You should read and understand the full details!

Indeed, as I have mentioned before, Warren Buffett recommends index funds for most "investors" who have no time to watch the market and those who are "financial idiots", and he recommended this to his wife who is a "financial idiot", but he himself won't put all his money into index funds, for reasons some of us have already explained. So are you going to trust Warren Buffett too (in addition to Michael Burry)? Are you a "financial idiot"?

https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/warren-buffett-recommends-index-funds-for-most-investors

Hey Chris loh, I think you're right, I shouldn't listen to the people here who recommended dca into index fund. They have no knowledge and are nobody compared to Michael Burry.

I found this article about the reputable Warren buffet.
He recommended index fund, should I trust him since he's also reputable?

 

[hellvolhardzelinsky]

You should read and understand the full details!

Indeed, as I have mentioned before, Warren Buffett recommends index funds for most "investors" who have no time to watch the market and those who are "financial idiots", and he recommended this to his wife who is a "financial idiot", but he himself won't put all his money into index funds, for reasons some of us have already explained. So are you going to trust Warren Buffett too (in addition to Michael Burry)? Are you a "financial idiot"?

Yes, I'm a financial idiot. If I'm so financial smart like you, I won't be wasting my time here replying you already. I will be using my time to beat every one here who only follow blindly in the index fund.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Saw one AIA advisor sharing on his Instagram that Michael Burry talking about the index bubble.

I didn't see any vaccine for HIV, SARS or MERS after years and years. I don't see how now they will produce a viable vaccine in 6-12 months.

We'll see, but the so-called Oxford vaccine is going into Phase 3 clinical trials now. If that vaccine is at least reasonably useful then North America and Europe are in line to get it as soon as this year (2020). That'd be astonishing, but it's possible.

I don't think the stock markets are weighing that possibility too heavily, though. And you mentioned HIV, SARS, and MERS...and I'll toss in the influenza pandemics of 1918, 1957, and 1968. Did any of these epidemics and pandemics have any material impacts on long-term investors? (Big human impacts, sure.)

I am not a pessimist but I don't see all these gold and flowers they all see in the near future

There are never "perfect" conditions. There are always headwinds affecting global business valuations. Stock markets only reflect the instant consensus estimates of the net present values of the real businesses traded on the exchanges relative to other available assets. I would point out that with lower interest rates across most of the world the discount rate is lower, and so net present value estimates tend to give some more weight to the future relative to past valuations. U.S. stock markets are willing to overlook a big spike in unemployment to some extent particularly if the government has stepped in to bolster consumer demand and household balance sheets (yes, pretty well, for now) and if the effects on consumer demand fade reasonably quickly.

Keep in mind that U.S. markets are still off their highs. They don't think COVID-19 is nothing. (Far from it.) But they also don't think it's the end of the world, and that's a reasonable conclusion.

unemployment graphs are harder to interpret. 6 mths later all these figures will vanish as unemployed ppl will not b counted anymore .

They're initial filings for unemployment benefits, as the states report their applications (which are backlogged). The good news is that lots of U.S. workers actually get/got more income from unemployment benefits than they got working. They had to wait too long for those benefits in millions of cases, but we're in the middle of a big cash injection into millions of American households with high propensities to spend it. The boosted unemployment benefits run out in about 5 weeks unless extended, and then some of those boosted benefits are paid out in arrears. If they aren't extended then around mid August the pain will be felt. Just in time for the U.S. election.

Also, states, counties, and municipalities are fiscally crashing right now. Their spending is up, their tax revenues are down, and almost without exception they cannot go into debt. That's a big fiscal headwind, and it's starting now. Also just in time for the U.S. election.

More people turning to ETFs will affect the profits of insurance agents and active fund managers so of course they are not fans of ETFs. There are already proper and well thought out arguments against Micheal Burry's theory, I suggest that you look at them.

Those are very good videos. You're quite correct that an insurance agent has a vested interest in criticizing all available alternatives.

There are some "edge concerns," I would call them. I'm also concerned about synthetic stock funds, for example. I suggest you stay away from them.

 

[CWL84]

Yes, I'm a financial idiot. If I'm so financial smart like you, I won't be wasting my time here replying you already. I will be using my time to beat every one here who only follow blindly in the index fund.

Don't bother with chrisloh65, nobody takes him seriously here. Every time he posts, I just .

 

[Version001]

I was thinking of DCA-ing into WCLD alongside IWDA. I know you guys love IWDA but any opinions on WCLD?

 

[BBCWatcher]

I was thinking of DCA-ing into WCLD alongside IWDA. I know you guys love IWDA but any opinions on WCLD?

I think you should stop looking at anything that has sharply appreciated recently, that's at or near the top of the fund appreciation leaderboard. If you're going to try to pick winners and losers -- not something I'd recommend, but if -- try picking something that's likely to be a better value. Maybe even something that's declined in price lately, something that's "on sale."

For example, EXV9 is a European stock index fund focusing on travel and leisure companies. It's down over 32% year to date, and of course it is because COVID-19 has battered these stocks. (Although it's well above its 52 week low.) If you want to speculate on something appreciating in value, how about that?

 

[celtosaxon]

You should read and understand the full details!

Indeed, as I have mentioned before, Warren Buffett recommends index funds for most "investors" who have no time to watch the market and those who are "financial idiots", and he recommended this to his wife who is a "financial idiot", but he himself won't put all his money into index funds, for reasons some of us have already explained. So are you going to trust Warren Buffett too (in addition to Michael Burry)? Are you a "financial idiot"?

If you think you are one of the exceptions and can beat the market like those few famous ones, by all means go for it... I wish you luck. Just be sure to measure your performance against the index (no cheating), because achieving alpha consistently over time is a rare feat!

For the rest of us, we are happy to do better than 89% of professional fund managers by investing in a simple, low cost index fund.

 

[hellvolhardzelinsky]

Don't bother with chrisloh65, nobody takes him seriously here. Every time he posts, I just .

yea I know it, just playing along with him
If he wins then good for him, but he keep wasting time here. His life really very sad.

 

[celtosaxon]

I think you should stop looking at anything that has sharply appreciated recently, that's at or near the top of the fund appreciation leaderboard. If you're going to try to pick winners and losers -- not something I'd recommend, but if -- try picking something that's likely to be a better value. Maybe even something that's declined in price lately, something that's "on sale."

For example, EXV9 is a European stock index fund focusing on travel and leisure companies. It's down over 32% year to date, and of course it is because COVID-19 has battered these stocks. (Although it's well above its 52 week low.) If you want to speculate on something appreciating in value, how about that?

I would be cautious about this strategy. Things that are beaten down are often down for a reason. I remember investing in AIG for cents on the dollar during the 2008 crisis... picked it up at the very bottom. Years went by and the market bounced back much faster than AIG. And it makes sense looking back, because that company was harder hit and took longer to recover.

 

[chrisloh65]

Don't bother with chrisloh65, nobody takes him seriously here. Every time he posts, I just .

Strange that you didn't when Shiny Things is making false and baseless claims in his post like below but are doing so for claims back up with concrete facts from me?

I can safely confirmed that Shiny Things is making false and baseless claims (as quoted below) since he has been unable to backup his claims with facts until now:

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/127874672-post36.html

Shiny Things,
Why don't you do yourself a favor and backup your below claims here?

Firstly, are you sure you want to do this? When you buy a China ETF instead of a global ETF, you're betting that the Chinese stock market will outperform the MSCI World. For that to happen, one of three things has to happen:

* Chinese banks manage to work themselves out from under their GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans; or,
* Chinese tech companies go from "trading at a titanically expensive multiple of earnings" to "trading at a truly monstrously expensive multiple of earnings"; or,
* Chinese property companies manage to keep the Ponzi going. I have a few acquaintances who look at this stuff and none of them can figure out how the Chinese property sector hasn't imploded yet.

................
"China is going to emerge!" has been trapping people in an underperforming market for decades.

Could you please provide facts to back up your claims that:

(1) You claimed that Chinese banks have GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans!
Where is the evidence? Please point to the Chinese bank financial statements, etc. ICBC, and show us where is the GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans?

(2) You claimed that Chinese tech companies are "trading at a titanically expensive multiple of earnings" that should be avoided!
But yet why you didn't warn all of us here that many of the USA tech companies are now "trading at a monstrously expensive multiple of earnings" (worst than those titanically expensive Chinese tech stocks) when you advocated others here to continue to buy IWDA, consisting of >65% US stocks (including those "mostrously expensive" US tech stocks)?

(3) You claimed that Chinese property companies are having Ponzi scheme!
What ponzi scheme and where are the facts and evidence?

(4) You claimed that "China is going to emerge!" has been trapping people in an underperforming market for decades!
Please back up your claim.

From what I can see, comparing VWRD etf (that you recommended) and 2822.HK China etf since 2012 (near their inception), 2822.HK has beaten VWRD handily since 2012! Wow! so much for underperforming market but beating VWRD (that you recommended) handily hands down!

And strangely, why you don't want to tell us that USD and US T-bills is the biggest ponzi scheme of all time in history?!
US Gov clearly has no ability to pay off all the T-bills without printing more USD like toilet papers!

And another ponzi scheme is to "DCA blindly into index ETFs regardless of market conditions" so that the earlier adopters will retire early very rich by persuading the latter comers to keep pushing up the price, very much like those MLM scheme!

Now, if you can't provide facts to backup your above claims, that brings into question whether you Shiny Things are purposely spreading lies here or you are really so ignorant and making those false claims in your post?

Well, I was told that you have been complaining about me so many times for exposing your false claims that I was inevitable to get infracture at one point or another due to my casual writings and rebutting you. But that doesn't matter as long as I can expose the truth for the goodshake of all people here!

 

[CWL84]

Strange that you didn't when Shiny Things is making false and baseless claims in his post like below but are doing so for claims back up with concrete facts from me?

I can safely confirmed that Shiny Things is making false and baseless claims (as quoted below) since he has been unable to backup his claims with facts until now:

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/127874672-post36.html

Why would I have anything against Shiny Things? He is not the problem, even if you have disagreements with him. You are the main problem here on this subforum. Your lack of self awareness, arrogance, condescension towards others and inability to add any substantive posts to help drive discussion forward are obviously not welcome.

 

[ezzo89]

Hi I've noticed a preference for SCB over Saxo in this forum.. however I just noticed that Saxo has no custodian fees for SGX listed stocks. If I were to use Saxo just for A35 and ES3, and IB for VWRA, that would make sense right?

 

[chrisloh65]

Strange that my posts exposing lies and false claims etc., you regard them as "inability to add any substantive posts to help drive discussion forward"? And this is given the fact that exposing the lies and false claims themselves will be able to generate lots of discussions as to what are wrong with these lies and false claims that people can discuss about and make themselves a more knowledgeable and better investor and don't be fooled by these lies and false claims!

And yet posts that contain lies and false claims etc are perfectly fine to you and has "ability to add substantive posts to help drive discussion forward"? And it seems from your statement that you need to have anything against such person who is telling lies and false claims before you are willing to expose their lies and false claims?
Just by such statement from you already clearly shows where you stand. People who are supportive of posts containing lies and false claims (if they have nothing against the person saying them) basically already exposed their state of moral values, don't need me to say more.

That is why all the more I believe that we need people who are willing to stand out to expose people who are posting lies and false claims (regardless who these people are) in this forum! I am not one to be a coward and hide under the couch just because the person telling the lies and false claims has many supporters here, since every righteous person here will be able to tell right from wrong and make the judgement for themselves (even if they don't voice out).

If exposing people who are posting lies and false claims (just because you are supportive of them) means "lack of self awareness, arrogance, condescension towards others", then so be it!

Why would I have anything against Shiny Things? He is not the problem, even if you have disagreements with him. You are the main problem here on this subforum. Your lack of self awareness, arrogance, condescension towards others and inability to add any substantive posts to help drive discussion forward are obviously not welcome.

 

[chrisloh65]

In case you don't know, I am FIREd already and enjoying my retirement life, so nothing sad about it as I have lots of time on hand to do whatever I like.
"SAD" life is only when you are stuck in a day-job and don't have enough money to retire early to enjoy carefree life, need to report to work and see the colors of your bosses' faces, cannot jet-go anywhere at last minute decision without applying for leave and or can't even go for more than 12-weeks overseas holidays in any single year, stuck to living in 99-years leasehold property that keeps depreciating in value (to $0 at end of 99-years lease) and can't leave a "legacy" to your children, and have to take public transport and expose yourself to higher chance of getting CoVid-19 in Singapore, etc! There are more benefits of FIRE, probably others here who have FIREDd can fill in as well.

yea I know it, just playing along with him
If he wins then good for him, but he keep wasting time here. His life really very sad.