2020 market expectations and positioning - Part 2

[MrHighlander]

Time to buy a bit more then

Prior to this vaccine announcement it was still very uncertain whether a vaccine could be even weakly effective in preventing COVID-19 infection and associated morbidities and mortality. However, the “greater than 90% effective” part of the announcement is genuinely fantastic news. So is the safety profile, which appears to be excellent.

What we don’t know yet is how long this vaccine and others like it will confer immunological benefits, and we also don’t know whether this virus will figure out (too quickly) how to evolve to evade this vaccine’s human immune response. This particular vaccine is also tough to distribute since it requires ultra cold storage, but other vaccines based on the same principles are in the pipeline and don’t require special handling. All that said, it’s good news so far.

 

[RedsYWNA]

Here’s my guess:

1. While markets mostly already priced in a Biden win, they had a little more to price in after the election outcome crystallized over the weekend. President Biden’s administration is likely to pursue somewhat more vigorous antitrust enforcement (already started against Alphabet/Google), and Facebook is probably the most vulnerable.

2. Relatedly, Biden is perceived to be about equally hostile to Chinese infrastructure companies such as Huawei but less agitated about consumer-oriented companies such as TikTok. TikTok is a growing competitive threat to Facebook.

3. Donald Trump’s loss means he’s likely to push even more of his hardcore supporters to alternative platforms such as OAN (for those who think Fox News doesn’t provide enough propaganda) and Parler (for those who want a Twitter with even more white supremacy, antisemitism, and misogyny), to promote his brand and build his media empire. Facebook has managed to piss off practically everyone, basically.

4. With the vaccine news (which may or may not pan out, but it’s obviously good provisional news), people just might use Facebook a lot less next year as the physical world reasserts itself. Zoom was also down for similar reasons.

FB is 1 US tech stock that looks really interesting to me. Strong moat, and loads of monetization opportunities for Facebook/Instagram Shop and Whatsapp Business/Payments.

Certainly a gd buy below USD 250. I regret never getting it in April/May period, but its definitely 1 to monitor closely.

 

[revhappy]

Time to buy a bit more then

My plan is to not do anything for a few months and see how the situation evolves. I think markets have already priced in a lot. But if there are dips of 5% or more I will slowly increase my allocation. Current allocation 42%, which is high from my own historical standards.

What is your allocation percentage?

 

[revhappy]

FB is 1 US tech stock that looks really interesting to me. Strong moat, and loads of monetization opportunities for Facebook/Instagram Shop and Whatsapp Business/Payments.

Certainly a gd buy below USD 250. I regret never getting it in April/May period, but its definitely 1 to monitor closely.

How are your options doing? I got out of the SPY short put, before election and instead bought the underlying SPY.

 

[focus1974]

There is no inflation now, but it will come. When there growth in money supply without corresponding productivity growth, that devalues money. The impact wont be apparent immediately. But the money printed and given cannot be taken back. When the economy opens there will be surge in consumption and we will have inflation higher.

If that's the case, then buying property (even better with leverage) is the right thing to do.

 

[NewInvestor]

FB is 1 US tech stock that looks really interesting to me. Strong moat, and loads of monetization opportunities for Facebook/Instagram Shop and Whatsapp Business/Payments.

Certainly a gd buy below USD 250. I regret never getting it in April/May period, but its definitely 1 to monitor closely.

I agree with you. Lots of FB untapped potential. The only question is will FB dip below $250?

 

[YouHeypiCanLiao]

I agree with you. Lots of FB untapped potential. The only question is will FB dip below $250?

what about MSFT??

 

[candy crush]

I hope today can all green

 

[NewInvestor]

what about MSFT??

Also another great company to hold long term. And does not have anti trust pressure for the time being.

 

[RedsYWNA]

How are your options doing? I got out of the SPY short put, before election and instead bought the underlying SPY.

Oh, waiting for them to expire, which they are > 95% likely to do so, bcos its really deep OTM. I think buying the underlying SPY is a gd trade too for long term. Congrats.

Usually i do it both ways. On one hand, i sell deep OTM puts hoping to kio durians, on the other hand, i have my mthly DCA into selected ETF/stocks just in case the durians dont drop.

Now, the market is turning out as I expect, with value stocks rising temporarily due to vaccine news, while Tech takes a hit. But if we project into the months and years ahead, Tech will easily outpace value. As an investor, we dont even need to get the right Tech, just get QQQ, VGT will do. Let the market do the work.

 

[MrHighlander]

Allocation is 12.5% ..so am a buyer..

My plan is to not do anything for a few months and see how the situation evolves. I think markets have already priced in a lot. But if there are dips of 5% or more I will slowly increase my allocation. Current allocation 42%, which is high from my own historical standards.

What is your allocation percentage?

 

[revhappy]

Oh, waiting for them to expire, which they are > 95% likely to do so, bcos its really deep OTM. I think buying the underlying SPY is a gd trade too for long term. Congrats.

Usually i do it both ways. On one hand, i sell deep OTM puts hoping to kio durians, on the other hand, i have my mthly DCA into selected ETF/stocks just in case the durians dont drop.

Now, the market is turning out as I expect, with value stocks rising temporarily due to vaccine news, while Tech takes a hit. But if we project into the months and years ahead, Tech will easily outpace value. As an investor, we dont even need to get the right Tech, just get QQQ, VGT will do. Let the market do the work.

I guess if Nasdaq goes below 11k, it will be good time to add some QQQ.

 

[netzach]

Haven’t yet leh bro lol.
Must wait for the dust to settle lol.
Siong

any good buys?

禪 HardwareZone Forums app

 

[RedsYWNA]

I guess if Nasdaq goes below 11k, it will be good time to add some QQQ.

Yes, QQQ is gd. Basically buying a cross section of America's 100 most innovative companies. I expect some short-term weaknesses as hedge funds rotate to cyclicals and weak hands take profit.

But long term, QQQ has shown it is incredibly resilient. My main complaint on QQQ is that it does not really have much exposure to China, other than PDD and JD. So I do supplement QQQ with some Chinese exposure, as I expect the yuan to strengthen against the dollar in the next 5-10 years.......

 

[YouHeypiCanLiao]

Yes, QQQ is gd. Basically buying a cross section of America's 100 most innovative companies. I expect some short-term weaknesses as hedge funds rotate to cyclicals and weak hands take profit.

But long term, QQQ has shown it is incredibly resilient. My main complaint on QQQ is that it does not really have much exposure to China, other than PDD and JD. So I do supplement QQQ with some Chinese exposure, as I expect the yuan to strengthen against the dollar in the next 5-10 years.......

can sic what is your counterbalance for ASIA/CN ETFs?
I'm also looking at doing QQQ(moving in soon) + ARKK(bot) too

 

[MangoTuna65]

Yes, QQQ is gd. Basically buying a cross section of America's 100 most innovative companies. I expect some short-term weaknesses as hedge funds rotate to cyclicals and weak hands take profit.

But long term, QQQ has shown it is incredibly resilient. My main complaint on QQQ is that it does not really have much exposure to China, other than PDD and JD. So I do supplement QQQ with some Chinese exposure, as I expect the yuan to strengthen against the dollar in the next 5-10 years.......

Whats your opinion on HKEX: 3067?

 

[Jinjia Stupid Idiot]

Listen to Mike shushu faster all in now huat tgt wor I all in long ago huat already don't believe those doomers wor there's only one way up faster sell all pawn all and enter now~

Sent from Sent From Smarter Than You using GAGT

 

[MrHighlander]

Seems like market coming down a bit

Typically overreaction to news like this no?

 

[yumsang]

futures may turn green

 

[Surrealz]

Super-over-reaction. Medical stocks like those glove counters are down so much. People forgetting the simple fact that hospital staff need gloves to administer vaccines?

And SIA up 13% after their abysmal earnings? It's a joke really.

This vaccine news . is . not . a . silver . bullet.