2020 market expectations and positioning - Part 2

revhappy

revhappy

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Guys, we visited IMM outlet mall today, it is like more than back to normal. Most of the sports shops like Nike, Adidas etc had 11.11 sale and the queue especially for the Nike sale was crazy. We waited in the queue for 1hr just to get into the shop. It was like storewide 40% discount if you buy 4 items. Was really worth it.

I think STI will cross 3k faster than we think.
 
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MangoTuna65

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revhappy said:
Guys, we visited IMM outlet mall today, it is like more than back to normal. Most of the sports shops like Nike, Adidas etc had 11.11 sale and the queue especially for the Nike sale was crazy. We waited in the queue for 1hr just to get into the shop. It was like storewide 40% discount if you buy 4 items. Was really worth it.

I think STI will cross 3k faster than we think.
Click to expand...

How would this situation lead to a significant rise in STI? Rise in bank stocks? REIT stocks?
 
revhappy

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MangoTuna65 said:
How would this situation lead to a significant rise in STI? Rise in bank stocks? REIT stocks?
Click to expand...

People are confident and going to malls and shopping and spending. Very few countries have reached this level of normalization. So SG consumer oriented companies should do well.
 
OnePunchMan

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revhappy said:
People are confident and going to malls and shopping and spending. Very few countries have reached this level of normalization. So SG consumer oriented companies should do well.
Click to expand...

you can already see a lot of store getting hit already. I would say most f&b survive.
 
YouHeypiCanLiao

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Q at sports shop got correlation with STI ah?

revhappy said:
Guys, we visited IMM outlet mall today, it is like more than back to normal. Most of the sports shops like Nike, Adidas etc had 11.11 sale and the queue especially for the Nike sale was crazy. We waited in the queue for 1hr just to get into the shop. It was like storewide 40% discount if you buy 4 items. Was really worth it.

I think STI will cross 3k faster than we think.
Click to expand...
Posted with Nokia 8310 HardwareZone Forums app
 
revhappy

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YouHeypiCanLiao said:
Q at sports shop got correlation with STI ah?


Posted with Nokia 8310 HardwareZone Forums app
Click to expand...

We have the domestic consumption picking up as well as vaccine on the horizon. STI is one of the few indices that is still trading cheap, this is why I estimate, it wont take long for STI to cross 3000 again. Earlier we were estimating it could take like 2 years for STI to cross 3000 again, but now I think it will cross within 1 year.

This is not to say, go into STI right away. But if you are holding STI, then dont give up, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
 
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RedsYWNA

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revhappy said:
Guys, we visited IMM outlet mall today, it is like more than back to normal. Most of the sports shops like Nike, Adidas etc had 11.11 sale and the queue especially for the Nike sale was crazy. We waited in the queue for 1hr just to get into the shop. It was like storewide 40% discount if you buy 4 items. Was really worth it.

I think STI will cross 3k faster than we think.
Click to expand...

SG is becoming like MY, a weekend mall place. The acid test is not how crowded the mall is on weekends, but how crowded it is on say, 3 pm Tues.

Take a walk around Orchard Road at 3 pm Tues. Its a far cry from the old days. That said, heartland malls remain strong, though footfall is still down 10-15% from pre-covid days.

The retail queue is not because its damn crowded, but bcos of social distancing guidelines. I was at Malaysia Chiak on a Sat, 1 chap took up an entire table meant for 4, due to social distancing guidelines.

I advise to stay clear of F&B stocks and atas reits for now. All are having operational losses/massive profit plunge, artificially subsidised by the Govt for now.

They will no doubt recover, but in the meanwhile, other stock prices would have long ran up.
 
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OnePunchMan said:
yea sti impact is hard to estimate. mall reit is sure impacted but they got beaten down quite a bit already
Click to expand...

Just to avoid any misunderstandings, I am not trying to bash/condemn the STI. I have poured some money into ES3, and will be more than happy if it rises through the roof.

I am just trying to be more surgical when it comes to our own economy and index, after all, this is our home base. From what I can gather so far, I think our economy is improving, there was a piece of news about an uptick in manufacturing a few weeks back, and I think we are hearing less about large scale retrenchments. JSS is still ongoing until Mar 2021, so it's hard to decouple its effects vs other economic factors on jobs.

At the ground level, it also seems that the Covid situation is well under control. Community transmissions are as low as can be, although the government still seems to be rather jittery about returning to normalcy (though I don't know how much normalcy the taiwanese are enjoying, given that they are almost 7 months w/o a confirmed domestic transmission case). However, crowds =/= business =/= profits, especially if the crowds are only there to check out deep discounts that stores might be offering. There is a general sentiment of 'being in a recession' still, and people might be more careful about releasing money from their wallets. That's being said, people might be spending more online, which we won't be able to see from observing mall traffic.

So, how will all these affect the STI? Will the 3 big banks lead the rise in STI? Or perhaps, SG's recovery will be 1st seen in the rise in small companies, and then the constituents of STI, which might we might have to wait a while before the STI fully recovers?
 
OnePunchMan

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MangoTuna65 said:
Just to avoid any misunderstandings, I am not trying to bash/condemn the STI. I have poured some money into ES3, and will be more than happy if it rises through the roof.

I am just trying to be more surgical when it comes to our own economy and index, after all, this is our home base. From what I can gather so far, I think our economy is improving, there was a piece of news about an uptick in manufacturing a few weeks back, and I think we are hearing less about large scale retrenchments. JSS is still ongoing until Mar 2021, so it's hard to decouple its effects vs other economic factors on jobs.

At the ground level, it also seems that the Covid situation is well under control. Community transmissions are as low as can be, although the government still seems to be rather jittery about returning to normalcy (though I don't know how much normalcy the taiwanese are enjoying, given that they are almost 7 months w/o a confirmed domestic transmission case). However, crowds =/= business =/= profits, especially if the crowds are only there to check out deep discounts that stores might be offering. There is a general sentiment of 'being in a recession' still, and people might be more careful about releasing money from their wallets. That's being said, people might be spending more online, which we won't be able to see from observing mall traffic.

So, how will all these affect the STI? Will the 3 big banks lead the rise in STI? Or perhaps, SG's recovery will be 1st seen in the rise in small companies, and then the constituents of STI, which might we might have to wait a while before the STI fully recovers?
Click to expand...

imho, banks have already rise. they may rise again after interest rate recover but there aint much more room. SingTel and sats got bash real hard + some of the reits for offices. all of them are due to recover in 12-24mths. The exhibition/conference related hotels and stock is having a hard time, and is solely dependent on how lax the phase 3 rule can be. they may take upto 36 mth to fully recover. FYI, hotel is still holding a lot of booking and just shifting them a few months down at a time hoping to restart once allowed
 
moolala

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ain't banks risky?

they are loaning so much money at low interest, won't these loans turn bad, esp with interest hike?
 
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