2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[Hello_Kitty]

Lai! Let's start the 2022 discussion early!!!

 

[aurvandil]

Not a good start to the year for Sg stocks. STI is just below 3100. 20/50 MA death cross above. Chance for a run of the 3000 especially if Omicron comes and there is a community surge.

 

[aurvandil]

Hang Seng is near where it began in 2021. It is grinding down slowly and test of the 20k is possible. Shanghai Composite on the other hand is doing quite well. It is becoming increasingly obvious who is the favoured child and who is the orphan.

 

[aurvandil]

For US stocks, the traditional XMas rally is underway. Expectation is for the S&P to break the 5000 by the Jan earnings season. With tapering and interest rate hikes on the way, it is unlikely there will be a repeat of the 2021 gains. A reversion to norm of 10% increases seems likely which will bring the S&P to 5500 by the end of 2022.

 

[wutawa]

My sg counters are solely reits which are looking bad. I may partially cut loss in 2022 if things get worse. Us counters hold 90% of my portfolio. Etf has the biggest portion. Likely to add more into it as a safer investment.

 

[anthonygreenisreal]

Growth stocks will not be the stars due to inflation and valuation coming back sentiments. Most of them will take years to grow into their valuation or possibly never recover to their 2020s or 2021s high.

I'm still in US stocks positioning more into broad-based ETFs like VTI/VOO/SPY/QQQ and sticking to top 5 to 7 highest conviction stocks. Speculative trading investments keep to about 10% or less for margin of safety.

 

[ctan84]

Not a good start to the year for Sg stocks. STI is just below 3100. 20/50 MA death cross above. Chance for a run of the 3000 especially if Omicron comes and there is a community surge.

Isnt the death cross 200/50 and not 20/50 ?

 

[aurvandil]

Isnt the death cross 200/50 and not 20/50 ?

I don't use the 200 as it is too slow for my time frame. I am referring to the 20 / 50 daily MA. The cross occured on 10 Dec. HSI is currently trading below.

 

[ctan84]

I don't use the 200 as it is too slow for my time frame. I am referring to the 20 / 50 daily MA. The cross occured on 10 Dec. HSI is currently trading below.

That's an interesting approach. Will keep that in mind.

 

[thelittlemonkeye]

to infinity and beyond!

 

[zzTiny]

Many crystal balls here I say year 2022 will be a highly volatile period. Any news for supply chain, inflation, reopening will send it spiral either way. My view is that things is just starting. I highly doubt the inflation, supply chain will be solved in 2022 nor reopening anytime soon in 6months.

 

[thelittlemonkeye]

Here is my crystal ball SNP500:

2008: -38%. After QE: 2009: 23.45%, 2010: 12.78%. 2011: 0.00%

After every major crash, big liquidity injection, outsized returns for 2 years. In the third year, monetary policy stabilizes, and market will most likely only give +/- 5%. So what am I doing next year? I'm going to do nothing. Take a break.

For DCA, just keep it consistent. But if you want to time the market next year, good luck! At least i'm not gonna do it, not even with my fun money and itchy fingers.

 

[Kojo0403]

Inflation threat seems real.
In 2022 i will overweight into REITs, Gold and Energy/Commodities stocks. (via etfs)

 

[revhappy]

Here is my crystal ball SNP500:

2008: -38%. After QE: 2009: 23.45%, 2010: 12.78%. 2011: 0.00%

After every major crash, big liquidity injection, outsized returns for 2 years. In the third year, monetary policy stabilizes, and market will most likely only give +/- 5%. So what am I doing next year? I'm going to do nothing. Take a break.

For DCA, just keep it consistent. But if you want to time the market next year, good luck! At least i'm not gonna do it, not even with my fun money and itchy fingers.

What is your asset allocation like?

My current asset allocation is 42% into equities. My plan would be to increase my allocation slowly and get to around 50% allocation by end of 2022 and if there is a dip I will deploy more so I could get to 50% earlier. If markets rocket higher, I will just continue with my planned DCA allocation and I could get to 50% earlier too, just by way of my equity valuation going up.

The biggest challenge is to keep ourselves sane and not get carried away either side by being too bullish or bearish. I want to take the middle path and remain balanced like Buddha

 

[yumsang]

when STI was the lousiest last year, someone said 0 growth after 10 years
looks like HSI same same

 

[Kojo0403]

STI actually did ok this year, 10% return.

http://www.sgx.com/research-educati...1222-etf-trading-enhancements-commence-17-jan

 

[highsulphur]

Will continue to DCA into isac. No change in strategy

 

[thelittlemonkeye]

My current asset allocation is 42% into equities. My plan would be to increase my allocation slowly and get to around 50% allocation by end of 2022 and if there is a dip I will deploy more so I could get to 50% earlier. If markets rocket higher, I will just continue with my planned DCA allocation and I could get to 50% earlier too, just by way of my equity valuation going up

I got about 9% in bonds, 30% in what i call 'bond like' stocks, which are high dividend-low growth stocks, mostly banks. The rest in ETFs. Yea I think next year is a good year to DCA and not feel bad about yourself because it's gonna be sideways most likely, but let's see.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

My team for 2022!

 

[dappermen]

wow even got a pict!!!!!!!!!!!!