2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[stanlawj]

To me, Powell can say what he wants but the problem is whether US can sustain the high interest. They are still at deficit and doing QE under table. So let’s say republicans refuse to raise debt ceiling, then how? Of course in the end they will surely raise the ceiling but what wayang do they want to do in between? Cut rates? Don’t forget your interest high means hit debt ceiling faster also. If I am not mistaken, their interest payment is pretty close to defence budget already lei.

No problem with the high interest.
Because the debt consists of > 1 year bonds. Which means, the interest will increase slowly over the years... not suddenly in just one year. I've seen the projected interest payment graphs, but the easiest way is note that the demand for 2yr, 5yr, 10-yr is quite high, enough to cause the yield curve inversions. The US govt can just issue more long-term debt at any time as long as the debt ceiling is raised. The coming debt ceiling drama is just a political ploy to get more benefits for each politician.

 

[limster]

"doomed", "crash", "lost all my money" are typical youtube clickbait titles

 

[aurvandil]

"doomed", "crash", "lost all my money" are typical youtube clickbait titles

The unique thing about this youtuber is that he is quite open that he is not very good. He went all in BABA and had to force sell to avoid margin call. His calls are that BABA will go back to $200 while TSLA will fall to $20.

 

[cosycatus]

The unique thing about this youtuber is that he is quite open that he is not very good. He went all in BABA and had to force sell to avoid margin call. His calls are that BABA will go back to $200 while TSLA will fall to $20.

This points to the stupidity of the viewer and not the video creator.

I find it v funny pple listen to investment advice from YouTubers instead of vintage advice given by real investors such as buffet or munger.

Oh..paiseh. U must have watch his video to know his calls.

 

[aurvandil]

This points to the stupidity of the viewer and not the video creator.

I find it v funny pple listen to investment advice from YouTubers instead of vintage advice given by real investors such as buffet or munger.

Oh..paiseh. U must have watch his video to know his calls.

Yupe. I am one of those stupid people who enjoy watching his videos.

 

[utraeg]

what if.. the next CPI number becomes hotter than expected.

 

[direbmem]

Yupe. I am one of those stupid people who enjoy watching his videos.

What are the insights u gained? For eg. from the above video?

 

[aurvandil]

What are the insights u gained? For eg. from the above video?

Understanding how others make bad investment decisions is always useful to see if you have the same flaws as them.

 

[boroangel]

This is a confused market that cannot make up its mind which way it wants to go

 

[boroangel]

What are the insights u gained? For eg. from the above video?

Actually I do watch some of these youtubers both locally and overseas, just to get a general idea of what their thoughts are, as additional information.

I tend to use them as reverse indicators, meaning if they are bullish I am cautious, if they are bearish, I take more risk if its line with my market analysis.

 

[direbmem]

Actually I do watch some of these youtubers both locally and overseas, just to get a general idea of what their thoughts are, as additional information.

I tend to use them as reverse indicators, meaning if they are bullish I am cautious, if they are bearish, I take more risk if its line with my market analysis.

Ya but the Master Leong video is 1hr++ lol and no time placeholder to skip to haha

 

[DevilPlate]

This points to the stupidity of the viewer and not the video creator.

I find it v funny pple listen to investment advice from YouTubers instead of vintage advice given by real investors such as buffet or munger.

Oh..paiseh. U must have watch his video to know his calls.

I also watch sometimes for entertainment purposes.

Just like what Adam Khoo has said before. Anybody's prediction is as good as yours and purely for entertainment purposes.

 

[DevilPlate]

what if.. the next CPI number becomes hotter than expected.

No need to be hotter. Slower rate of decline will cause a panic selling already.

 

[DevilPlate]

Actually I do watch some of these youtubers both locally and overseas, just to get a general idea of what their thoughts are, as additional information.

I tend to use them as reverse indicators, meaning if they are bullish I am cautious, if they are bearish, I take more risk if its line with my market analysis.

However there are always bear and bull videos at any one time depending on who u follow.

 

[d5dude]

This is a confused market that cannot make up its mind which way it wants to go

I think its clear that it has gone up (past tense) a lot, what isnt clear is where its headed in the next couple of months, but then again there has never been any certainty surrounding such a thing.

 

[cosycatus]

I also watch sometimes for entertainment purposes.

Just like what Adam Khoo has said before. Anybody's prediction is as good as yours and purely for entertainment purposes.

Adam Khoo?
U quote adam Khoo?
Okaaaay.
This bugger from selling NLP course 20 years ago to running tuition center to now teaching pple how to invest...and u quote him?
Okaaaay.

 

[DevilPlate]

Adam Khoo?
U quote adam Khoo?
Okaaaay.
This bugger from selling NLP course 20 years ago to running tuition center to now teaching pple how to invest...and u quote him?
Okaaaay.

You do not agree with the quote " Any prediction is purely for entertainment purposes only"??

I only watch some of his videos from time to time and it seems u follow him longer and deeper than most of us. I don't really care his background at all since I would never pay $$ to attend such courses. whahaha

 

[DevilPlate]

I think its clear that it has gone up (past tense) a lot, what isnt clear is where its headed in the next couple of months, but then again there has never been any certainty surrounding such a thing.

Yes, im sure many would not have expected such a fast V-shaped recovery for stock markets in 2020 as well.

 

[RedsYWNA]

Understanding how others make bad investment decisions is always useful to see if you have the same flaws as them.

I dont watch his videos but subscribes to his mailing list for free Bloomberg updates. His biggest issue is confirmation bias, followed by price anchoring.

 

[aurvandil]

I dont watch his videos but subscribes to his mailing list for free Bloomberg updates. His biggest issue is confirmation bias, followed by price anchoring.

Fully agree the part about confirmation bias. I find that his management a bad trades is his biggest weakness. Instead of cutting and looking for a place to get back in, he holds on and hopes for the best. This is what led to the forced selling of his BABA position near the low to avoid margin call.