2024 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[sohguanh]

You can always draw strong boundaries and ask your mother go fly kite leh...

I see she only left few years give her face lor but those despicable ppl I will forever remember them until I die and burn in Mandai Crematorium. Who knows in the other world I see them I go confront them.

 

[sohguanh]

Order you do what? Marry your bui bui cousin?

Lend also as good as give monies to those got legs got hands but lazy to earn monies ppl. They can borrow from bank etc but if borrow from own ppl can skip pay interest mah. So best to live alone no ties no one to take advantage (borrow monies etc) of you.

 

[stanlawj]

Guys, pls do your best to inverse Goldman Sachs. This how things will turn out: from the start of the year 2024, GS appears to be right... then suddenly everything reverse before the start of Q2 2024.

Because GS is here to make money from you! Otherwise, how to pay their executive bonuses? In their eyes, you are the sheep to be sheared for wool, not them.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/w...history-sp-5100-gdp-double-consensus-jobs-and

Why Goldman Expects The Most Flawless Fed Landing Ever: S&P 5,100 With GDP Double Consensus, Jobs, & Wage Growth ... Yet 5 Rate Cuts As Inflation Tumbles​

You can cross-check with Chicken Genius from crypto land. He also expects alt-coin season from Jan to Feb 2024. After that,... it's the bagholders season!

 

[aurvandil]

Recently there have been a large number of Youtube videos on China which make it look like China is about to collapse. The following is a travel vlog to give some persepctive.



A realistic assessment of China is that it is not going to collapse. The rapid growth period is clearly over and China is in the process of transitioning to a relatively long period of Japan style stagnation. If you visited Japan during their long stagnation, you probably found things were not so bad and life in cities like Tokyo and Osaka went on pretty much as normal.

Given the size of the economic problems, a minimum 10 to 20 year time frame would be a realistic time frame for them to sort things out. If you invest now, you are therefore likely to be 10 to 20 years too early. It is completely unrealistic to expect for things to be resolved in 1 to 2 years and for China to make a V shape recovery to the high growth era.

India, Vietnam and Thailand are going to be the largest beneficiaries of this stagnation. People and capital are fleeing China for better prospects outside of China. This happened during the Japanese stagnation too and was a key contributing factor to the stagnation.

 

[stanlawj]

Recently there have been a large number of Youtube videos on China which make it look like China is about to collapse. The following is a travel vlog to give some persepctive.



A realistic assessment of China is that it is not going to collapse. The rapid growth period is clearly over and China is in the process of transitioning to a relatively long period of Japan style stagnation. If you visited Japan during their long stagnation, you probably found things were not so bad and life in cities like Tokyo and Osaka went on pretty much as normal.

Given the size of the economic problems, a minimum 10 to 20 year time frame would be a realistic time frame for them to sort things out. If you invest now, you are therefore likely to be 10 to 20 years too early. It is completely unrealistic to expect for things to be resolved in 1 to 2 years and for China to make a V shape recovery to the high growth era.

India, Vietnam and Thailand are going to be the largest beneficiaries of this stagnation. People and capital are fleeing China for better prospects outside of China. This happened during the Japanese stagnation too and was a key contributing factor to the stagnation.

China is not Japan.
It will take just a few years, maybe at most 3 more years?
Not 10 to 20 years.
Financial markets also tend to move ahead in anticipation of the actual physical economy turning point.

My reasoning is simple. Look at who's winning all the Science and Math Olympiads. Furthermore, Russia is partnering China.

 

[limster]

My reasoning is simple. Look at who's winning all the Science and Math Olympiads. Furthermore, Russia is partnering China.

According to the internet, US is winning Science and Math Olympiads too! (fact check - the photos may be mislabelled - eg, some sources say the photo is the Chemistry Olympiad team, not the Maths Olympiad team, so pls treat this as entertainment only).

 

[aurvandil]

My reasoning is simple. Look at who's winning all the Science and Math Olympiads. Furthermore, Russia is partnering China.

According to the internet, US is winning Science and Math Olympiads too! (fact check - the photos may be mislabelled - eg, some sources say the photo is the Chemistry Olympiad team, not the Maths Olympiad team, so pls treat this as entertainment only).

China is in the process of a severe demographic bust thanks to their 1 child policy. While this has been discontinued, young people in China today are like their counterparts in affluent countries and do not want to have children. To make matters worse, the best and brightest are looking to leave China with US being the preferred country to emigrate to.

 

[stanlawj]

China is in the process of a severe demographic bust thanks to their 1 child policy. While this has been discontinued, young people in China today are like their counterparts in affluent countries and do not want to have children. To make matters worse, the best and brightest are looking to leave China with US being the preferred country to emigrate to.

Have you done your homework?
That "best and brightest" was in the past. But it has changed because US has turned against all Chinese-origin people.

Let me correct this for you: It is now the corrupted rich and criminals are seeking to leave China to run away from XJP's justice.

The corrupted rich got rich through facilitating the property bubble under the JZM, HJT factions. Not going to escape unscathed from XJP faction.

The criminals include the above, scammers and sexual criminals who got caught, and many are at the border of US-Mexico now or in SEA. Includes our infamous Su Baolin.

 

[stanlawj]

According to the internet, US is winning Science and Math Olympiads too! (fact check - the photos may be mislabelled - eg, some sources say the photo is the Chemistry Olympiad team, not the Maths Olympiad team, so pls treat this as entertainment only).

You cannot use 1 or 2 year result (sample size = 2) to make a trend.
Look for CHN here:
Math: https://www.imo-official.org/results.aspx

 

[stanlawj]

China is in the process of a severe demographic bust thanks to their 1 child policy. While this has been discontinued, young people in China today are like their counterparts in affluent countries and do not want to have children. To make matters worse, the best and brightest are looking to leave China with US being the preferred country to emigrate to.

A bear case on China and is a valid point.

How problems arising from this will be solved is not yet known, or whether demographic bust can be solved at all.

For example, Singapore solved its demographic bust by importing lots of FTs over many years and making them citizens to beef up the 20 - 40 yrs age band where the deficit currently is due to low birth rate in the past.

 

[polyglob]

India, Vietnam and Thailand are going to be the largest beneficiaries of this stagnation. People and capital are fleeing China for better prospects outside of China. This happened during the Japanese stagnation too and was a key contributing factor to the stagnation.

China is not going to collapse. However, the actions of Chinese regulators - Ant IPO (objective: kill the loan shark), edutech crack down (objective: level the playing field on affordability of after-school tuition/enrichment classes), gaming crack down (objective: restrict addictive gacha game mechanics) - show that keeping rich (foreign) investors of Chinese listed companies happy isn't high on their list of concerns. One should not expect the Chinese stock market to operate like the US stock market, where the rich are always bailed out.

Countries like Vietnam and Thailand are too small to take over Chinese manufacturing totally.

India is big enough but India has its own set of problems. For investors, one such problem is Indian government's penchant to loot foreign companies that set up shop in India on trumped up charges.

 

[aurvandil]

That "best and brightest" was in the past. But it has changed because US has turned against all Chinese-origin people.

Let me correct this for you: It is now the corrupted rich and criminals are seeking to leave China to run away from XJP's justice.

The corrupted rich got rich through facilitating the property bubble under the JZM, HJT factions. Not going to escape unscathed from XJP faction.

The criminals include the above, scammers and sexual criminals who got caught, and many are at the border of US-Mexico now or in SEA. Includes our infamous Su Baolin.

The following is a link to an article which first appeared in Bloomberg. The majority of those seeking to migrate to the US do not appear to be criminals. According to the article many appear to be middle class. As US has tightened legal immigration routes, many are showing up at the border as illegal immigrants.

https://biz.crast.net/a-new-wave-of-chinese-middle-class-immigrants-is-coming-to-america/

The migrants are part of a growing Chinese middle class fleeing the economic downturn. They include entrepreneurs who watched their businesses fade away during the recession, middle-aged fathers laid off from China's collapsing real-estate sector and young software engineers eager to make it in Silicon Valley.

 

[d5dude]

A bear case on China and is a valid point.

How problems arising from this will be solved is not yet known, or whether demographic bust can be solved at all.

For example, Singapore solved its demographic bust by importing lots of FTs over many years and making them citizens to beef up the 20 - 40 yrs age band where the deficit currently is due to low birth rate in the past.

Singapore's population is a mere 5+m compared to China's 1.4b, where are all the immigrants going to come from? This isnt even remotely comparable.

Besides China has always had net emigration since 1950 (when they began keeping statistics on this), people with skills and money were already leaving the country before covid, XJP merely accelerated this process. I doubt a 70 yr trend is going to change overnight.

China is going to have a huge problem on their hands 10-15 years from now, a shrinking workforce coupled with an ageing population is a toxic combination, I think both the local and central gov will have to take on a lot more debt like Japan in order to support the old.

 

[d5dude]

The following is a link to an article which first appeared in Bloomberg. The majority of those seeking to migrate to the US do not appear to be criminals. According to the article many appear to be middle class. As US has tightened legal immigration routes, many are showing up at the border as illegal immigrants.

https://biz.crast.net/a-new-wave-of-chinese-middle-class-immigrants-is-coming-to-america/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183457/united-states-resident-population/

https://www.statista.com/chart/8083/immigrants-foreign-born-united-states/

Up and to the right.

 

[DevilPlate]

Right now best bet still SPY and QQQ for next few years

 

[d5dude]

CPI should rollover hard next year due to the way rents are computed alone (private measures lead the CPI rent component by 1 yr), the fed can cut rates based on this, it doesnt have to be some sort of a crisis that forces their hand. I think both stocks and bonds will do very well next year even if we get a mild recession.

The rip higher in both stocks and bonds have been furious since early Nov, has everyone already figured this out?

 

[revhappy]

China is not going to collapse. However, the actions of Chinese regulators - Ant IPO (objective: kill the loan shark), edutech crack down (objective: level the playing field on affordability of after-school tuition/enrichment classes), gaming crack down (objective: restrict addictive gacha game mechanics) - show that keeping rich (foreign) investors of Chinese listed companies happy isn't high on their list of concerns. One should not expect the Chinese stock market to operate like the US stock market, where the rich are always bailed out.

Countries like Vietnam and Thailand are too small to take over Chinese manufacturing totally.

India is big enough but India has its own set of problems. For investors, one such problem is Indian government's penchant to loot foreign companies that set up shop in India on trumped up charges.

India has domestic capital, domestic talent, domestic consumption. India is the only country like US, in terms of capitalism and being consumption focussed. All your East Asian so called Tiger economies, including China and Japan all of them couldnt match up the structural long term growth like Indian markets have delivered.

India imports a lot from China, so all India has to do is force domestic manufacturing and replace the imports, which is already happening in case of iphones and other smart phones.

 

[stanlawj]

India has domestic capital, domestic talent, domestic consumption. India is the only country like US, in terms of capitalism and being consumption focussed. All your East Asian so called Tiger economies, including China and Japan all of them couldnt match up the structural long term growth like Indian markets have delivered.

I sort of agree that the next few years is India's positive turn. Just hope that it won't end up promoting more Hindu extremism. More money tends to magnify the bad things as well.

 

[yslvlys]

India has domestic capital, domestic talent, domestic consumption. India is the only country like US, in terms of capitalism and being consumption focussed. All your East Asian so called Tiger economies, including China and Japan all of them couldnt match up the structural long term growth like Indian markets have delivered.

India imports a lot from China, so all India has to do is force domestic manufacturing and replace the imports, which is already happening in case of iphones and other smart phones.

Do you mean China has no domestic capital/talent/consumption?

 

[polyglob]

India has domestic capital, domestic talent, domestic consumption. India is the only country like US, in terms of capitalism and being consumption focussed. All your East Asian so called Tiger economies, including China and Japan all of them couldnt match up the structural long term growth like Indian markets have delivered.

India imports a lot from China, so all India has to do is force domestic manufacturing and replace the imports, which is already happening in case of iphones and other smart phones.

By sheer size India will surely become the 3rd largest economy in the world sometime in the future.

As an NRI, I suppose you have better lobangs to invest in India than foreigners like us Sinkies?