USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[DevilPlate]

So far, everything that is coming out looks very market friendly.
I won't be surprised if we end the Trump term with the S&P knocking on 10k.

Already got one guy predicting that in CNBC.
compound 10% yearly quite easy to hit 10k

 

[DevilPlate]

We are guided by the fact that the stock market is his KPI. Unlike Biden, he will not do anything which causes a prolonged stock market down move. If the market moves negatively in response to anything his administration rolls out, he will jump on whoever did it and get them to reverse direction. This includes Powell and the FED.

This more than anything is why I am so bullish on where market is headed.

But i suspect he have to kio sai (recession) from Biden admin next year after he took over

 

[DevilPlate]

I am not sure they will go through with Europe tariffs. Top priority appears to be China. I think they want to address the various loopholes China is using to evade the tariffs.

All his talks about tariffs tok big to threaten nia…..i predict will be kinda targeted tariff that will not cause higher inflation….

Those greeny policies with unrealistic timeline are partly to be blamed for high inflation

 

[aurvandil]

But i suspect he have to kio sai (recession) from Biden admin next year after he took over

Based on the numbers I am tracking, no sign of it happening. US economy is remarkably strong, mainly due to the re-industrialisation. If implemented correctly without an inflation surge, the tariffs will hasten the process. On the flip side, China which is the main target is going to sink into a even deeper hole.

 

[Tiny Shrimp]

Based on the numbers I am tracking, no sign of it happening. US economy is remarkably strong, mainly due to the re-industrialisation. If implemented correctly without an inflation surge, the tariffs will hasten the process. On the flip side, China which is the main target is going to sink into a even deeper hole.

what are the main drivers of china's down?

 

[aurvandil]

what are the main drivers of china's down?

Nothing is clear yet. My speculation is that they are going to impose the large tariffs on the strategic industries China is trying to dominate. The tariffs will be targeted so as not to cause an inflation surge. They will also close many of the loopholes China is using to evade the current tariffs.

 

[Tiny Shrimp]

Nothing is clear yet. My speculation is that they are going to impose the large tariffs on the strategic industries China is trying to dominate. The tariffs will be targeted so as not to cause an inflation surge. They will also close many of the loopholes China is using to evade the current tariffs.

i think china is not idle either

 

[Euqorab]

What are your takes on SMCI? Able to bounce back?

 

[stanlawj]

BofA's survey of Fund Managers' positioning:

 

[Mephist0pheLes]

BofA's survey of Fund Managers' positioning:

This is their positioning in Jan 23, the bottom 3 all did extremely well over the next 2 years.

 

[d9_lives]

What are your takes on SMCI? Able to bounce back?

Short put.
Been collecting a few k per week from smci.

 

[d5dude]

BofA's survey of Fund Managers' positioning:

EM 2nd highest overweight going into Nov, no wonder EM has been obliterated in the last couple of weeks.

 

[Euqorab]

Short put.
Been collecting a few k per week from smci.

What is short put and how to do?

 

[elvintay07]

Relax la. Trump is a businessman. I don’t think he will want recession and interest to be high. Likely interest drop and huat big big

 

[wutawa]

I am expecting int to drop 0.25 in dec

 

[d9_lives]

What is short put and how to do?

No idea. I threw words around to sound smart.

 

[mooseolly]

Powell speaking later, now is quite dull maybe will see a move later.

 

[Jirachi]

that day was drunk then sold all my ETF's and yolo all my cash into the stock...

You lucky you haven’t got wrecked. I would say you can switch some of the positions into underlying stocks and close off the options.

 

[Jirachi]

Dollar went from 52wk low to 52wk high in just a few weeks, this is some crazy ****.

Yeah. Insane. I was watching the DXY go rallying after Trump re-election.

 

[Jirachi]

Nobody knows whats going to happen and this is why its worrying. The only certainty we have now are tax cuts so thats a positive for corporate profits, but that will definitely weigh on the deficit and interest rates are likely to be higher (negative for many sectors like housing).

Although Trump can be quite uncertain, but I doubt he will go ahead with the insane tariffs. His administration might pull him back. But I can be wrong on this.