[GE2025] Extensive changes to electoral boundaries due to population shifts; only 5 GRCs, 4 SMCs left intact

[Carnage]

Treasures at Tampines Condo. It is the largest condo in Singapore by number of units. It added a lot of voters into the area.

I thought mostly foreigners?

 

[boredom2012]

 

[sales69]

This Tampines West estate last time strong support for WP one is it? Why they carve out

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/10-key-takeaways-from-ge2025-boundaries-report

8. Tampines GRC takes in Tampines West estates from Aljunied GRC​

Polling districts in Tampines West, which are currently under Aljunied GRC, will be moved to Tampines GRC. These are the new estates near to Tampines West MRT and to the East of Bedok Reservoir.

The change comes as the committee recommended that electoral boundaries be regularised along key geographical features

They take over 2 old condos. Then Temasek Poly side new BTOs.

Throw in Tampines North BTOs.

If cannot get 60%, can go bang wall.

 

[iam7377]

Why is the Tampines Changat so special?

Coz near to Aljunied GRC...

 

[Ethan_]

Impossible.

Never say never, with incumbent.

 

[UptheToon]

With such Picasso drawing skills, aljunied will fall. Confirm got calculate this one.

 

[iam7377]

Let me guess the anchors:

1. Sembawang GRC - Ong YK
2. Choa Chu Kang GRC - Gan KY
3. West Coast/ Jurong West GRC - Des L
4. Jurong East/ Bukit Batok GRC - Grace F
5. Holland/ Bukit Timah GRC - Vivi
6. Tanjong Pagar GRC - Chan CS
7. Bishan/ Toa Payoh GRC - Chee HT
8. Jalan Besar GRC - Jo T
9. Ang Mo Kio GRC - Lee HL
10. Nee Soon GRC - Sham
11. East Coast GRC - Heng SK
12. Pasir Ris/ Changi GRC - Teo CH
13. Punggol GRC - Tan SL
14. Tampines GRC - Koh PK
15. Marsiling/Yew Tee GRC - Law W
16. Marine Parade/ Braddell Heights GRC - Edwin T

Seems like all the GRCs have strong anchors.
(Note: this is just my little guess, dun take it seriously or officially.)

Tampines should be Masagos...

 

[Carnage]

Doesn't look good.

 

[Medicated Oil]

Tampines should be Masagos...

Not sure he will be retiring after this term.
That is why I put KPK.
Once again, it is just a guess.

Punggol is tricky.
Can be some one else.

 

[boredom2012]

Projected Overall Vote Share for GE2025

To estimate the overall vote share, I'll consider:

1. GE2020 baseline:

PAP: 61.24%

Opposition (WP, PSP, etc.): 38.76%



2. Monte Carlo simulations on battleground seats (West Coast, Sengkang, Queenstown, etc.).


3. Historical vote swing trends: PAP vote share has varied between 60-70% over past elections.


4. Impact of new electoral boundaries (potential dilution of WP strongholds).



Monte Carlo Simulation Results:

Using vote swings between -5% to +5%, the projected vote share is:


---

Key Takeaways:

PAP likely to gain 1-3% more votes overall due to opposition fragmentation and new boundaries.

WP’s vote share may decline slightly if Sengkang becomes more competitive.

PSP could maintain or slightly improve vote share (~10-12%), but seat wins remain limited.

Overall opposition vote share remains strong (~35-38%), but it may not translate into many seat gains.


Would you like a more detailed breakdown by party or region?

 

[RAKSL38]

As expected, those narrow PAP wins in WC, EC GRC, BB SMC have significant changes.

Don't understand why got SMCs surrounded by GRCs.

 

[charleslee1989]

West coast Jurong super mega grc. Lol

The entire part of Jurong West is massive sia + Taman Jurong Somemore.....

 

[Sango123]

My guess is more in the WP category and definitely 0 in the last one lol

 

[Medicated Oil]

As expected, those narrow PAP wins in WC, EC GRC, BB SMC have significant changes.

Don't understand why got SMCs surrounded by GRCs.

Except for Hougang, should be some hard core bao jiak area.

 

[treeskull]

As expected, those narrow PAP wins in WC, EC GRC, BB SMC have significant changes.

Don't understand why got SMCs surrounded by GRCs.

Those SMCs v high election % siding with papa

 

[Carnage]

My guess is more in the WP category and definitely 0 in the last one lol

You guessing or hoping?

 

[Sango123]

You guessing or hoping?

Hmm, more of a guess i guess.

I hope WP comes to Jalan Besar, that is my hope

 

[8zaoyu]

might as well dun have election draw till like that almost 60 all GRC then free loaders just ride on.
If political party eh gan come all 1:1 or multi corner fight no need what GRC bo grc

Since we know the result, might as well drag till Nov, can?

 

[Ethan_]

Looks like LWZ might be right, and PAP might want to conserve ET and send him to East Coast.

And this will free up a slot and possibly make TPL a satki 4-term backbencher wor.

The new GRC appetite like quite big. If not wrong, Machperson population have grown alot alot. Cause constantly got new housing estate came up, perhaps adding thousands each time to the area.

There is one on the former ITE site. Then new one just right opposite above the MRT station haven't completed. Right behind that is the fairly new housing estate think just abit older then the ITE one only.

And think there is one or two more housing estates coming up on the other side which is mattar road there. Got saw some building mess going only. Not yet anything came up.

Hard to imagine so small piece of land they squeeze in so many new housing estates. And don't forget, in the middle the old 10 storey housing estate anytime can be due for redevelopment also.

Also there is the long forgotten housing estate on the Geylang East side, which have not seen any redevelopment for decades. So, more old housing to redevelop. Basically the whole Macpherson can be redeveloped to squeeze in alot alot of people. Very potential.

 

[yves]

why still keep the small pockets of SMC....knn bo liao.