USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[sky1978]

So he might actually be the smartest. Consumption collapse may be lagging for 1-2 years before actually happening. After 1-2 years, if he stops the tariff, fiscal deficit may already really be eliminated. And once he stops the tariff, stocks may soar. Fed may cut rates so economy may still grow or at least not go into recession.

Some consumptions might collapse very quickly because they will shift offshore. US people made more than 100 million overseas trips every year, small and high value products like mobile phones, laptop etc... will be much cheaper to get outside the US.

 

[limster]

Most of Lulu's products are also made in SE Asia.

i bought more NKE tonight and initiated a position in LULU!

 

[TerryPower]

US dollar falling hard as predicted but I just don't understand how the silver market makers are able to control the price all the way down. That's why I'm out. Gold-to-silver ratio now 96 and still going higher. BTC is more transparent.

US is the new China

Trump is the new Xi

 

[kickass22]

US dollar falling hard as predicted but I just don't understand how the silver market makers are able to control the price all the way down. That's why I'm out. Gold-to-silver ratio now 96 and still going higher. BTC is more transparent.

hmmm.....It is still at 1.33 - 1.35 for the past couple of weeks....don't see it falling "Hard"

 

[quekkb]

Since Tariff plan announce, busy with buying from the following markets:

Australia Market
Singapore Market
Hong Kong Market
France Market
US Market
Canada Market

If the market today continue to drop, will continue to buy including additional markets:

Malaysia Market
UAE Market
UK Market

 

[yslvlys]

Got some RCL..

 

[yslvlys]

US is the new China

Trump is the new Xi

Indeed.

 

[econ food]

Riiiiight.... I guess you will agree with Trump even if he says the sun rises from the west.

In venus , Sun rise from west.

 

[econ food]

Trump tariffs:

Cambodia: 49%!!!!
Vietnam: 46%!!!!!
Thailand: 36%
China: 34%
Indonesia: 32%
Switzerland: 31%
India: 26%
South Korea: 25%
Japan: 24%
Malaysia: 24%
EU: 20%



Minimum is 10% for most countries including Singapore.

Corporations can avoid these tariffs by building their factories in USA.

South-east Asia is gone case. Looks like Singapore is winner again in SEA, thanks to PAP!!! Factories will come flooding back to Singapore!!

Chu think if factories go sg.. taffi still 10..?

 

[cosycatus]

i bought more NKE tonight and initiated a position in LULU!

Niiike no debt quite safe.
Given the fall of everything I'll go broad etf.
Stock picking when general market is humming.

 

[revhappy]

 

[elvintay07]

This market is really difficult for traders. Win rate drop drastically. Haha!

 

[aurvandil]

That is Biden's domain. Trump doesnt give 2 hoots about that. All he has talked about is the trade deficit.

For me, the official position that all of this is just to generate trade surplus doesn't make much sense. My hypothesis is that what we are seeing is a continuation of Trump 1.0 with lessons learned. The key policy objectives are

1) Detente with Russia
2) Open European markets to US goods and services
3) Contain China

The current tariffs are to achieve 2) and 3).

1) and 2) are related. If the US is in a posture of confrontation with Russia, then the US needs European allies. If however the US has friendly relations with Russia, it opens the door for US to take a more hardline approach with Europe with regard to economic policy. Bonus is that with Russia's blessings, the US can take action in Iran to address what they see as the biggest threat to the US in the Middle East.

On China, the Chinese have been preparing for Trade War 2.0 for years. The main tool is geo-laundering and trans shipment. As long as these back doors are not addressed, any attempt to contain China with tariffs will fail. I am not familiar with the rest of the world so I shall limit to just SE Asia, If you look at the countries in SE Asia with the larger tariffs, many are well known to be countries Chinese companies have set up shop in anticipation of US tariffs. Even SG was not spared the 10% even though we have a FTA with the US. Our home team were surprised by the move as on top of the FTA, they had carefully engineered a trade deficit with the US through lumpy government item purchases like the F-35s. Whoever is running policy on this in US obviously studied us carefully and understood what we were doing.

In managing Trump 2.0, there are two approaches we can take. We can assume that it is a clown show or we can take the approach that there is a deeper geopolitical strategy at work. I am positioning on the assumption that it is the latter that will shape the world for decades to come. If it is the former, then nothing of consequence will emerge and we will be back to business as usual after 4 years.

 

[revhappy]

For me, the official position that all of this is just to generate trade surplus doesn't make much sense. My hypothesis is that what we are seeing is a continuation of Trump 1.0 with lessons learned. The key policy objectives are

1) Detente with Russia
2) Open European markets to US goods and services
3) Contain China

The current tariffs are to achieve 2) and 3).

1) and 2) are related. If the US is in a posture of confrontation with Russia, then the US needs Europe as is. If however the US has friendly relations with Russia, it opens the door for US to take a more hardline approach with Europe with regard to economic policy. Bonus is that with Russia's blessings, the US can take action in Iran to address what they see as the biggest threat to the US in the Middle East.

On China, the Chinese have been preparing for Trade War 2.0 for years. The main tool is geo-laundering and trans shipment. As long as these back doors are not addressed, any attempt to contain China with tariffs will fail. I am not familiar with the rest of the world, but if you look at SE Asia, many of the countries with the larger tariffs are those which Chinese companies have fled to in anticipation of US tariffs. Even SG was not spared the 10% even though we have a FTA with the US. Our home team were surprised by the move as they had carefully engineered a trade deficit with the US through lumpy government item purchases like the F-35s. Whoever is running policy on this in US obviously studied us carefully and understood what we were doing.

In managing Trump 2.0, there are two approaches we can take. We can assume that it is a clown show or we can take the approach that there is a deeper geopolitical strategy at work. I am positioning of on the assumption that it is the latter that will shape the world for decades to come. If it is the former, then nothing of consequence will emerge and we will be back to business as usual after 4 years.

There is some logic to this, because Biden continued Trump 1.0 tariffs on China. So whatever Trump does there is good chance it is politically appealing and will be continued in the future as well.

 

[limster]

Niiike no debt quite safe.
Given the fall of everything I'll go broad etf.
Stock picking when general market is humming.

definitely must include ETF in our purchases. My plan is 50/50, 50% ETF, 50% stock pick. I managed to pick up some NVO.

NVO will be a winner. If US don't buy, there are other countries with waiting lists to buy more.

Furthermore, if Europe slap tariffs on LLY, basically its just a reallocation. Euro consumers will switch from LLY drugs to NVO, and vice versa for Euro consumers.

 

[stanlawj]

I'm not thinking so complicated. To me, the market is currently being pushed by market makers to reap profits against existing positions. Just reverse mostly everything in the past 1 year. These market makers are on the hook for most of the options sold to the market. They need to get out of these options profitably.

BTC is more transparent, and you can see it can't be manipulated using borrowed shares/fake shares/fake BTC. Trump tariffs is just the psychological push needed to get retail and slow money to sell shares.

For me, it looks like best to stay out of the market until the mass positioning is rebalanced.
I was lucky that my silver miner didn't crash outright but rebounded strongly to enable me to recoup my profits. Royalty and gold miners, like WPM is making new ATH, NST in Australia making new yearly highs too. This is the kind of price action that I am expecting for gold and silver mining sector.
BRK.B is also close to ATH.
Basically rotation has intensified yesterday. It'll just be a matter of time when these also run out of buying support to go up.

Update: CME just raised margins for gold and silver contracts (2nd time in two weeks). This is the definitive sell-signal by big boys for gold and silver sector.

For me, the official position that all of this is just to generate trade surplus doesn't make much sense. My hypothesis is that what we are seeing is a continuation of Trump 1.0 with lessons learned. The key policy objectives are

1) Detente with Russia
2) Open European markets to US goods and services
3) Contain China

The current tariffs are to achieve 2) and 3).

1) and 2) are related. If the US is in a posture of confrontation with Russia, then the US needs European allies. If however the US has friendly relations with Russia, it opens the door for US to take a more hardline approach with Europe with regard to economic policy. Bonus is that with Russia's blessings, the US can take action in Iran to address what they see as the biggest threat to the US in the Middle East.

On China, the Chinese have been preparing for Trade War 2.0 for years. The main tool is geo-laundering and trans shipment. As long as these back doors are not addressed, any attempt to contain China with tariffs will fail. I am not familiar with the rest of the world so I shall limit to just SE Asia, If you look at the countries in SE Asia with the larger tariffs, many are well known to be countries Chinese companies have set up shop in anticipation of US tariffs. Even SG was not spared the 10% even though we have a FTA with the US. Our home team were surprised by the move as on top of the FTA, they had carefully engineered a trade deficit with the US through lumpy government item purchases like the F-35s. Whoever is running policy on this in US obviously studied us carefully and understood what we were doing.

In managing Trump 2.0, there are two approaches we can take. We can assume that it is a clown show or we can take the approach that there is a deeper geopolitical strategy at work. I am positioning on the assumption that it is the latter that will shape the world for decades to come. If it is the former, then nothing of consequence will emerge and we will be back to business as usual after 4 years.

 

[elvintay07]

Quite strange this one.

 

[DevilPlate]

Quite strange this one.

Maybe means no V shape recovery yet.

 

[DevilPlate]

I'm not thinking so complicated. To me, the market is currently being pushed by market makers to reap profits against existing positions. Just reverse mostly everything in the past 1 year. These market makers are on the hook for most of the options sold to the market. They need to get out of these options profitably.

BTC is more transparent, and you can see it can't be manipulated using borrowed shares/fake shares/fake BTC. Trump tariffs is just the psychological push needed to get retail and slow money to sell shares.

For me, it looks like best to stay out of the market until the mass positioning is rebalanced.
I was lucky that my silver miner didn't crash outright but rebounded strongly to enable me to recoup my profits. Royalty and gold miners, like WPM is making new ATH, NST in Australia making new yearly highs too. This is the kind of price action that I am expecting for gold and silver mining sector.
BRK.B is also close to ATH.
Basically rotation has intensified yesterday. It'll just be a matter of time when these also run out of buying support to go up.

I tot got BTC futures liao?
im also surprised BTC haven’t drop below 80k

 

[stanlawj]

I tot got BTC futures liao?
im also surprised BTC haven’t drop below 80k

Eventually will be manipulated if people shift most of their BTC to the exchanges for convenience in trading instead of keeping it in cold wallet.