USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[d5dude]

Am I the only one seeing this or did I get it wrong?

I see the global ETF's not dropping much but some of the U.S stocks are dropping like flies whereas others are dropping big time.

However, if you broaden the timeline, not just from the "Liberation day" , the drop has been slow and steady from the all the time high.

Its mostly US equities thats been sold off and it makes perfect sense.

 

[stanlawj]

Strongest currency now is
1. CHF
2. JPY (updated 7pm)
3. USD
Aussie dollar getting slaughtered... on the way to become Aussie Peso.
WTI crude oil finally crashing below support $65. UST10yr and 2yr yield crashing below 4%.
All signs that market players trying to price in incoming "recession" (it's not here yet, but soon).

A good video on US economy moving forward. The video is done on 1 Apr, before US announced tariffs on 2 Apr.

Very good summary of the effects of tariffs, starting from businesses front-running it till the final part where pre-tariff inventories run out.

 

[aurvandil]

You overestimate Trump, there is nothing strategic about this,

This could be true too and I am open to the hypothesis that he got Chatgpt to draw up his tariffs chart.

 

[d5dude]

This could be true too and I am open to the hypothesis that he got Chatgpt to draw up his tariffs chart.

Chatgpt is good, I have been playing with their latest image generator. I think graphics artists and many jobs in the creative industry are going to disappear forever very soon.

 

[limster]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_local_elections

List of local elections. The positions might be unimportant but if there is a vote swing away from Republicans (even if they win), I'm sure the Republican party is paying attention.

In Nov 2025 the State Legislatures are up for election and that is pretty major (many Supreme Court cases come from laws passed by State Legislatures), so trump doesn't have much time with the tariffs, he has to use them to negotiate a good deal with multiple countries and then claim victory.

 

[DevilPlate]

Chatgpt is good, I have been playing with their latest image generator. I think graphics artists and many jobs in the creative industry are going to disappear forever very soon.

Hearsay many Art directors kena retrench since last yr and doing Grab…..very pitiful
Nowadays Art director goto multitask and handle project accounts also

 

[revhappy]

Stick to your planned allocation, thats what I'm doing. My allocation already factored in scenarios like 50% drawdown in stocks so I'm not losing any sleep over this market volatility.

Thanks. Yes there are 2 parts to it.
1) Have an allocation such that you don't lose sleep.
2) After you you do 1) , don't succumb to the itch to BTFD.

It is often a cycle. Reach 1) then givein to the itch and buy too early, then lose sleep, then sell at a loss. Then again reach 1)

 

[kickass22]

Thanks. Yes there are 2 parts to it.
1) Have an allocation such that you don't lose sleep.
2) After you you do 1) , don't succumb to the itch to BTFD.

It is often a cycle. Reach 1) then givein to the itch and buy too early, then lose sleep, then sell at a loss. Then again reach 1)

If you are already in retirement, there is no need to accumulate if your portfolio allocation has been reached. Also follow your retirement strategy that you have adopted.

 

[apple459721]

pre market crashing again

 

[d9lives]

pre market crashing again

With this, I say bye bye to all my YTD gain.

 

[apple459721]

i think will retest 5 aug 2024 low.

but need relief rally first

No need to relief..

Next wave of bullish market start already

maybe really wanna retest 5 aug 2024 low.

sooner than expected

 

[bo_tak_chek_bbfa]

Dam ... did not expect iwda to go below 100 that quickly ... gonna prepare ammo again.

 

[DevilPlate]

maybe really wanna retest 5 aug 2024 low.

sooner than expected

Someone say very orderly …..no panic/capitulation yet which means more pain ahead?

 

[aurvandil]

Someone say very orderly …..no panic/capitulation yet which means more pain ahead?

Of course. We are nowhere near a bottom. We just blew past the 5300 on China retaliation like it wasn't there.

 

[bo_tak_chek_bbfa]

added more iwda @ 98.92

 

[sumako]

monitor switch to portrait mode, should be very deep. complete chaos and this is just the beginning. look at boc yesterday and premarket.

 

[stanlawj]

Hooray, 6month and 3month UST yield just started crashing just now! These yields are important because the FOMC rate setting follows these yields.

 

[d5dude]

Europe down 5%, China/FXI down 6% on China retaliation. Second/third order effects incoming...

 

[d5dude]

Tiktok deadline is this weekend, Trump is still dreaming of using that to blackmail China.

 

[apple459721]

Someone say very orderly …..no panic/capitulation yet which means more pain ahead?

Idk market look fked drop too fast

Let’s see if powell can save the market tonight

nasdaq bear market liao