JPY has stopped rising. 10yr bond yield spread of UST over JGB has stopped shrinking while JGB yields also plunged. I noticed this by end of today. Hence, the JPY carry trade unwinding is done for now. Last night during NY session, USD became strongest currency indicating risk-off. I shifted all my cash holdings from JPY to USD to lock in the FX gains. I will shift back to JPY when the 10yr bond yield spread of UST over JGB start narrowing again (JGB yield start rising again).
Labor market needs to deteriorate, then Fed pivots. Until then, no bottom!
[Public service announcement] How to get wiped out over the next few weeks?
A) continue with large margin accounts outstanding prior to the market cycle bottoming
B) have no dry powder
C) high use of credit card leverage
while trying to time the bottom. Married man especially should not risk getting divorced due to the margin call.