USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[d9lives]

Alright people, place your bets.
Who will initiate the talk first?
I bet it'll be Trump l, and it'll be within 2 weeks.

Unlike other nations, China won't just line up to kiss Trump's ass.
China has more cards, is more ruthless, more united, and the century of humiliation is still fresh in their minds.

Oh crap...I look like the wumao now.

Prolly earlier than 2w.
Trump blinked again. Exemption on smartphones, laptops, chips etc.
Big green dildo on monday!

 

[stanlawj]

Prolly earlier than 2w.
Trump blinked again. Exemption on smartphones, laptops, chips etc.
Big green dildo on monday!

US just lost the tariff war vs China.
Also China played it smart... Li Qiang talked to the US CEOs, not Trump. Then the US CEOs pressured Trump.

Gold and silver should be down on Monday.
On Friday, AAPL was strongly up, hinting this news. Monday will be gap up and go to $208

 

[d9lives]

US just lost the tariff war vs China.
Also China played it smart... Li Qiang talked to the US CEOs, not Trump. Then the US CEOs pressured Trump.

Trump and Vance have to kiss those Chinese peasants' asses, or NO phones and laptop for the US.

Trump is going to blink again in 2 weeks.
The Art of Deal baby! LOL.

 

[DevilPlate]

For those who understand chinese.

The 1st guy talk until US 6T+ refinancing in June a big time bomb.

 

[apple459721]

 

[twosix]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ta...ns-apple-nvidia-dell-smartphones-pcs-b2e069ff

Apple, Nvidia, Dell, and Others Get a Tariffs Exemption Under New Rules

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency announced good news for Apple, Dell, and others late Friday night. A new list of goods to be exempted from the latest round of tariffs on U.S. importers was released, and it includes smartphones, PCs, servers, and other technology goods, many of which are assembled in China.

 

[stanlawj]

I know some people are going to say the bull market is back.

But make no mistake, Trump is a tough cookie. The tariffs will be rolled back, but they are not permanently rolled back.

On Monday, Trump will talk about the exemptions (in addition to praising himself about being a good listener), and I predict he will set a timeline for the tariffs to be ramped back up. This will be a warning shot to the US CEOs to speed-up reshoring their manufacturing.

 

[weng0202]

I know some people are going to say the bull market is back.

But make no mistake, Trump is a tough cookie. The tariffs will be rolled back, but they are not permanently rolled back.

On Monday, Trump will talk about the exemptions (in addition to praising himself about being a good listener), and I predict he will set a timeline for the tariffs to be ramped back up. This will be a warning shot to the US CEOs to speed-up reshoring their manufacturing.

I just fear the damage has been done. US is no longer a reliable place to invest with it's constant backtracking records. With bond yields rising and dollar dropping, what would be the long term impact?

 

[DevilPlate]

I know some people are going to say the bull market is back.

But make no mistake, Trump is a tough cookie. The tariffs will be rolled back, but they are not permanently rolled back.

On Monday, Trump will talk about the exemptions (in addition to praising himself about being a good listener), and I predict he will set a timeline for the tariffs to be ramped back up. This will be a warning shot to the US CEOs to speed-up reshoring their manufacturing.

But what u think about their 6.5T debts maturing in June?

Maybe US old money also dumping/shorting US treasuries

 

[sky1978]

But what u think about their 6.5T debts maturing in June?

Maybe US old money also dumping/shorting US treasuries

Based on the below article, the 6.5T is the amount maturing for 1H2025, it is not a standalone Jun month figure.
https://finbold.com/9-trillion-of-us-debt-will-mature-in-2025-should-investors-be-worried/

The entire refinancing amount for 2025 will be 9.2T, plus new issuance, maybe another 2T more. Last year's refinancing figure was also around the 9T range.

US treasuries are held by a lot of people, a sell-down does not mean sovereign investors are the only ones selling. Looking at the major foreign holder listing published by the Treasury, that table is likely to be referring to holders by country of origin rather than central banks. If we look at the UK figure of 740b vs the published official reserves of 100b++, it will not tally. The same goes for the Cayman Islands holding 400b worth of treasuries. Both the UK and Cayman are popular jurisdictions for fund management.

https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html

 

[DevilPlate]

Based on the below article, the 6.5T is the amount maturing for 1H2025, it is not a standalone Jun month figure.
https://finbold.com/9-trillion-of-us-debt-will-mature-in-2025-should-investors-be-worried/

The entire refinancing amount for 2025 will be 9.2T, plus new issuance, maybe another 2T more. Last year's refinancing figure was also around the 9T range.

US treasuries are held by a lot of people, a sell-down does not mean sovereign investors are the only ones selling. Looking at the major foreign holder listing published by the Treasury, that table is likely to be referring to holders by country of origin rather than central banks. If we look at the UK figure of 740b vs the published official reserves of 100b++, it will not tally. The same goes for the Cayman Islands holding 400b worth of treasuries. Both the UK and Cayman are popular jurisdictions for fund management.

https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html

Yes basically western media talking nonsense about China govt dumping.

Maybe US old money/institutions triggered the selldown and blame it on Japan, China etc whahahaha

Trump backfired……he thought by engineering a mini stock market crash will force Powell to cut rates.
If he has not done any of these tariff shyt, Powell should proceed to cut rates pretty soon given the latest CPI data.

 

[Brandedclassicwear]

idea of delisting of chinese stocks on USD exchange is not something new.

Chinese can choose to offload their US bonds or do some other actions.

US ADRs if they are delisted can likely be converted and trade on other exchange, if they are dual listed.
This is also less revenue for US exchange but more revenue for other foreign exchanges (HK will be potential) with increased liquidity,

delisting can hurt both China and US.

If don't delist, BlackRock and other US funds can own shares of companies in the 2nd largest economy, otherwise their growth will not benefit any US funds.

If delist, international investors, including US funds, will sell USD and buy HKD to buy ADR shares in HK market, thus creating downward pressure on USD

If delist, it's a forced sale, so US investors will be forced to pay tax from the sale of their shares in ADRs. That may be what the US government want, to delink US investors from Chinese ADRs

 

[stanlawj]

One of the gurus I follow (Derick Tan), forecasts a bear market starting in H2 2025.
The bear market hasn't started yet, but the last push up from now till May will draw in alot of retail investors.
Trump's Liberation Day was a preview of what is to come.
@d5dude , you agree? Previously you say I'm conspiracy theorist.

Public portfolio (ETF only): https://www.etoro.com/people/timingnyou/portfolio
(stocks): https://www.etoro.com/people/dericktandt7/portfolio

 

[apple459721]

 

[DevilPlate]

One of the gurus I follow (Derick Tan), forecasts a bear market starting in H2 2025.
The bear market hasn't started yet, but the last push up from now till May will draw in alot of retail investors.
Trump's Liberation Day was a preview of what is to come.
@d5dude , you agree? Previously you say I'm conspiracy theorist.

Public portfolio (ETF only): https://www.etoro.com/people/timingnyou/portfolio
(stocks): https://www.etoro.com/people/dericktandt7/portfolio

Post GFC……hard to see >40% crash liao.
Got Trump Put…..if fails got Fed Put…..yes ponzi scheme whatever lol
2022 supposedly got chance hit >50% crash but then Fed rescue the market again.

The only scenario is severe Stagflation similar to 70s period whereby Fed cannot print money due to double digit inflation. Doomers like David Hunter forecasting that will happen.
That scenario GOLD will outperform all asset class again.

 

[peachmouse]

New "Republican tax plan includes approximately $1.5 trillion in new tax cuts beyond the $3.8 trillion extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts."

 

[DevilPlate]

New "Republican tax plan includes approximately $1.5 trillion in new tax cuts beyond the $3.8 trillion extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts."

How they gona fill the void?

Doge latest savings figure drop to 150B liao
https://doge.gov/savings

 

[revhappy]

One of the gurus I follow (Derick Tan), forecasts a bear market starting in H2 2025.
The bear market hasn't started yet, but the last push up from now till May will draw in alot of retail investors.
Trump's Liberation Day was a preview of what is to come.
@d5dude , you agree? Previously you say I'm conspiracy theorist.

Public portfolio (ETF only): https://www.etoro.com/people/timingnyou/portfolio
(stocks): https://www.etoro.com/people/dericktandt7/portfolio

Quite possible. Because a whole generation of BTFD people were roaming around in their diapers during the 2008 crisis and havent seen a real bear market.

 

[DevilPlate]

https://johnrothe.com/looking-back-at-the-1970s-which-areas-of-the-stock-market-did-well-under-stagflation/#:~:text=Gold was the single best,as investors sought inflation hedges.&text=Gold mining stocks posted huge returns during this time.

Good recap on 70s stagflation

 

[stanlawj]

https://johnrothe.com/looking-back-at-the-1970s-which-areas-of-the-stock-market-did-well-under-stagflation/#:~:text=Gold was the single best,as investors sought inflation hedges.&text=Gold mining stocks posted huge returns during this time.

Good recap on 70s stagflation

I don't buy stagflation theory for today because the demographics is the biggest difference. During 1970s, American's largest population group called baby boomers just went into adulthood and started having children. This is the biggest consumption phase in a lifecycle of a human.
Today, the demographics is vastly different. The baby boomers are in fact, now retiring or going to die.