USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[aurvandil]

Its not the spread thats concerning, its the speed at which the long end is getting sold thats concerning. Somebody is liquidating US long bonds, could be basis trade imploding, foreigners dumping or both. Also look at USD/CHF, its down 8% in a straight line since liberation day, major forex pairs dun move 8% in a week unless something big (bad) is going on.

Beyond the US, there are no reliable numbers to track what is going on. Within the US, the usual metrics like repos, reverse repos etc are all behaving normally and showing no stress in the system. Even the sell off has been remarkably orderly. With all the twists and turns, you would have thought we would have limit down several times over. Yet we have so far yet to record a single limit down and halt to trading for the S&P.

In any case, things can change at a drop of a hat. In Trump 1.0, he called Kim Rocket Man and was threatening nuclear war. Next thing you know they are in SG and having a bromance. Won't be surprised if this ends in the same way. And we get to pay to host their summit in SG

 

[stanlawj]

INTC is dead.
Their chips are made in America: going to be either banned or tariffed by China.
Their datacentre CPUs replaced by NVDA AI factory.
Client computing CPUs replaced by ARM made by TSMC.
Walking dead corpse. Looks like foundry will have to be split from the company.

China Semiconductor Industry Association: For IC imports, declare origin based on "Wafer Fabrication Factory" location regardless of packaging status.

News Interpretation:
China’s new chip import rule isn’t “closing doors”—it’s a strategic move.
Here’s why it matters, and why it doesn’t mean China is helpless without US chips:

1. China is the world’s largest chip market.
It imports over $300B in semiconductors annually—around 1/3 of global demand. US tech giants like NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Broadcom rely on China for 30–50% of their revenue.

2. This new rule is about control, not blockade.
China is requiring IC importers to declare the origin based on where the wafer is fabricated, not where it’s packaged.
This prevents American firms from “whitewashing” chips through third countries to dodge export controls.

3. Yes, China still needs high-end chips.
But need doesn’t mean no leverage. The US needs access to China’s market more than China needs a few black-box GPUs.

4. This is a rules-based counterattack.
The US played hardball with sanctions. China’s reply is to tighten the legal definition of origin. This gives Beijing power to precisely target or exclude suppliers as needed—without a full ban.

 

[jasonsouza77]

markets shld close green today

 

[stanlawj]

markets shld close green today

I have an answer for you:

How realized volatility of the past week, past month will remain as a dark rain cloud over this market
Leverage will not be able to reach the levels that were necessary to generate the ATH levels in equities earlier this year for quite some time

Market is currently news-driven. All needed for it to be green, is for Trump to drop tariffs on China and kiss-up to Xi. Of course, that's not going to happen.

 

[peachmouse]

you might be interested in this video haha


I like he said Trump is consistently inconsistent.

Have watched the 1M65 video earlier. But it did not give me the aha. Interestingly, Mr Loo has fired a bullet yesterday (or on Wed US trading time), after US rally

 

[DevilPlate]

I have an answer for you:

How realized volatility of the past week, past month will remain as a dark rain cloud over this market
Leverage will not be able to reach the levels that were necessary to generate the ATH levels in equities earlier this year for quite some time

Market is currently news-driven. All needed for it to be green, is for Trump to drop tariffs on China and kiss-up to Xi. Of course, that's not going to happen.

Never say never.
China playing 4D chess while warlord is playing bluff and desperately waiting for the call that will never happen.

 

[revhappy]

 

[aurvandil]

Never say never.
China playing 4D chess while warlord is playing bluff and desperately waiting for the call that will never happen.

Very high chance Chinese stocks will be delisted US exchanges next.
This should have minimal impact on the S&P as the there is no equivalent retaliatory Chinese move.
The impact on the Chinese stocks will be severe as many funds cannot and do not wish to own stocks in a Chinese jurisdiction.

 

[lasnoblur]

Very high chance Chinese stocks will be delisted US exchanges next.
This should have minimal impact on the S&P as the there is no equivalent retaliatory Chinese move.
The impact on the Chinese stocks will be severe as many funds cannot and do not wish to own stocks in a Chinese jurisdiction.

idea of delisting of chinese stocks on USD exchange is not something new.

Chinese can choose to offload their US bonds or do some other actions.

US ADRs if they are delisted can likely be converted and trade on other exchange, if they are dual listed.
This is also less revenue for US exchange but more revenue for other foreign exchanges (HK will be potential) with increased liquidity,

delisting can hurt both China and US.

 

[Jirachi]

Very high chance Chinese stocks will be delisted US exchanges next.
This should have minimal impact on the S&P as the there is no equivalent retaliatory Chinese move.
The impact on the Chinese stocks will be severe as many funds cannot and do not wish to own stocks in a Chinese jurisdiction.

I am foreseeing people bringing up the topic of China dumping US bonds.

Well, we will see if China can take a massive Yuan appreciation...

 

[Jirachi]

delisting can hurt both China and US.

Agree.

For any Chinese companies that was previously listed as ADRs on US exchanges, they will lose out to a lot of the equity. As you can see, despite the ongoing poor relations, there are some Chinese companies that still prefers to IPO on US exchanges rather than on HKEX or mainland exchanges.

As for US, they will get a short-term reputation hit of not being "open".

 

[DevilPlate]

Very high chance Chinese stocks will be delisted US exchanges next.
This should have minimal impact on the S&P as the there is no equivalent retaliatory Chinese move.
The impact on the Chinese stocks will be severe as many funds cannot and do not wish to own stocks in a Chinese jurisdiction.

U only think about stock market which XJP care meh?
He can prick their own property bubble and remember they can tong so long during covid lockdown.

Americans can tong how long? Already got protest last wk

*High chance may impose cap gain tax on foreigners. Shift to LSE better.

 

[Jirachi]

U only think about stock market which XJP care meh?
He can prick their own property bubble and remember they can tong so long during covid lockdown.

Yup. China rather take the pain than to give in. Which is why I think Trump has to approach first and he was also the one who started this first.

I guess China would rather take the pain from their 400B exports and dump it elsewhere than to "lose face"

 

[DevilPlate]

Yup. China rather take the pain than to give in. Which is why I think Trump has to approach first and he was also the one who started this first.

I guess China would rather take the pain from their 400B exports and dump it elsewhere than to "lose face"

I believe China been preparing for such opportunity to strike and settle all the old debts with US.

 

[apple459721]

 

[DevilPlate]

Cham liao i have some IDTL (TLT equivalent) and thought its an hedge against stock market crash…..ended up both crash together

Any dead cat bounce, i will quickly sell all and buy my IBIT

 

[aurvandil]

U only think about stock market which XJP care meh?
He can prick their own property bubble and remember they can tong so long during covid lockdown.

Americans can tong how long? Already got protest last wk

*High chance may impose cap gain tax on foreigners. Shift to LSE better.

As i wrote before, it is really bad to get emotional in this type of market.
I am assessing news flow based on impact to my portfolio.
The tariffs on both sides have already reached ridiculous levels.
It makes very little sense to continue increasing.

Denying China access to US capital markets would be the next obvious step US would play.

For China, the obvious policy option is a Treasury dump. The FED is well prepared for the dump. They have to tools to monitor the start of such a move and can unleash QE unlimited to take all the debt onto the balance sheet.

 

[DevilPlate]

As i wrote before, it is really bad to get emotional in this type of market.
I am assessing news flow based on impact to my portfolio.
The tariffs on both sides have already reached ridiculous levels.
It makes very little sense to continue increasing.

Denying China access to US capital markets would be the next obvious step US would play.

For China, the obvious policy option is of course a Treasury dump. The FED is well prepared for the dump. They have to tools to monitor the start of such a move and can unleash QE unlimited to take all the debt onto the balance sheet.

why suddenly talk about simi emotions….u think im simi suay Leong isit
Im talking about US and China battle and who will blink first. Got nothing to do with investment.

TBH, im worried whether SG will be affected adversely anot in the long run since i m receiving rental.

 

[peachmouse]

Jim Bianco thinks that the yield of long-term US Govt Bonds are going higher due to higher inflation expectations. If Fed cut rates now, it will make the yields of long-term bonds go even higher

 

[DevilPlate]

Jim Bianco thinks that the yield of long-term US Govt Bonds are going higher due to higher inflation expectations. If Fed cut rates now, it will make the yields of long-term bonds go even higher

So still got hope if thats the case……since sooner or later silly Warlord will blink
Powell will not blink until smthing crack in his lagging data

I only scared the real reason is lost of confidence and perm capital flight