USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[DevilPlate]

I don't buy stagflation theory for today because the demographics is the biggest difference. During 1970s, American's largest population group called baby boomers just went into adulthood and started having children. This is the biggest consumption phase in a lifecycle of a human.
Today, the demographics is vastly different. The baby boomers are in fact, now retiring or going to die.

I also think stagflation is a rare occurence

 

[elvintay07]

Quite possible. Because a whole generation of BTFD people were roaming around in their diapers during the 2008 crisis and havent seen a real bear market.

No need to think so much. Before 2008, no one knows the magic about money printing machine. Today all central banks are ready. All is about kicking the can down the road. You think who so free to solve the problem? Frankly speaking, the problem is already deep down the shithole liao. Even today you put the wisdom of all the CEOs of magnificent 7 also cannot solve.

Matter of time when the printer presses will start.

 

[888888888888]

I don't buy stagflation theory for today because the demographics is the biggest difference. During 1970s, American's largest population group .

Politely disagree

 

[Jirachi]

 

[stanlawj]

 

[stanlawj]

Will US consumer discretionary stocks soon get destroyed?

NKE, LULU, UA, CROX,



I think the bear case for US stocks is getting stronger.

 

[Brandedclassicwear]

Will US consumer discretionary stocks soon get destroyed?

NKE, LULU, UA, CROX,



I think the bear case for US stocks is getting stronger.

It is well published in social media from live streaming by Chinese factories clearing their excess inventory that luxury brands have 1000% or 10X markup. This applies to all countries which outsource to China, not just US. Chinese consumers well aware of 平替。

what may happen is Chinese consumers may boycott US brands and watch less Hollywood movies in retaliation. Like Levis, Estee Lauder, Samsonite all will get hit, even though they may not be manufactured in the US.

 

[elvintay07]

It is well published in social media from live streaming by Chinese factories clearing their excess inventory that luxury brands have 1000% or 10X markup. This applies to all countries which outsource to China, not just US. Chinese consumers well aware of 平替。

what may happen is Chinese consumers may boycott US brands and watch less Hollywood movies in retaliation. Like Levis, Estee Lauder, Samsonite all will get hit, even though they may not be manufactured in the US.

I don’t think this will happen la. When I was in Shanghai, I was the only person wearing Li Ning, Anta, watching China movies. Many Chinese are wearing the adidas, Nike because of branding. I don’t think price will deter them from buying.

I recalled I was in a conference call in Shanghai. I remember someone asked me whether I know any chinese who went to boycott Japanese brands in 2023. I told them no la. Where got so free.

 

[d5dude]

Cham liao i have some IDTL (TLT equivalent) and thought its an hedge against stock market crash…..ended up both crash together

Any dead cat bounce, i will quickly sell all and buy my IBIT

Bitcoin is not a hedge either, its a risk asset and its actually down more than the QQQ since the peak in Feb.

There is no perfect hedge thats going to cost nothing in the long run, outside of derivatives like swaps and puts, the cheapest way to hedge is to hold more cash or IG/govt bonds with some duration. For all the panic and hysteria over UST collapse, the belly of the curve (~7yr) has actually been pretty stable over the last few years. Its the same thing for SGS or SGD denominated IG bonds.

 

[d5dude]

One of the gurus I follow (Derick Tan), forecasts a bear market starting in H2 2025.
The bear market hasn't started yet, but the last push up from now till May will draw in alot of retail investors.
Trump's Liberation Day was a preview of what is to come.
@d5dude , you agree? Previously you say I'm conspiracy theorist.

Public portfolio (ETF only): https://www.etoro.com/people/timingnyou/portfolio
(stocks): https://www.etoro.com/people/dericktandt7/portfolio

Not sure what you are getting at. Are you trying to claim that you were prescient in predicting the recent selloff?

Trumps tariffs was what caused the market to selloff, it wasnt due to some selling by democrats (they still hold massive amts of US equities!), so yea its still a silly conspiracy theory.

As for my view on US equities, lets just say that I'm not as sanguine as some are for the near term, I think it should be obvious from my posts on this thread in the last couple of months. Its tough to be bullish on equities (even outside the US) when Trump has just upended the global rules based order US established since WWII.

 

[d5dude]

I don't buy stagflation theory for today because the demographics is the biggest difference. During 1970s, American's largest population group called baby boomers just went into adulthood and started having children. This is the biggest consumption phase in a lifecycle of a human.
Today, the demographics is vastly different. The baby boomers are in fact, now retiring or going to die.

I wouldnt be so sure about that. Millennials already outnumber boomers and they are currently at their peak age for household formation, I dun think consumption patterns are going to change very much.

People keep bringing up the stagflation in the 70s without understanding what caused it. Back then it was primarily an oil supply shock that caused inflation, the US wasnt energy independent like it is right now and there werent many alternative sources of energy. I think its really tough to get that kind of inflation coupled with near zero growth again since energy prices have been pretty stable.

 

[stanlawj]

I wouldnt be so sure about that. Millennials already outnumber boomers and they are currently at their peak age for household formation, I dun think consumption patterns are going to change very much.

People keep bringing up the stagflation in the 70s without understanding what caused it. Back then it was primarily an oil supply shock that caused inflation, the US wasnt energy independent like it is right now and there werent many alternative sources of energy. I think its really tough to get that kind of inflation coupled with near zero growth again since energy prices have been pretty stable.

Make sense, but the boomers are going to die and leave their houses for their children.

 

[DevilPlate]

Bitcoin is not a hedge either, its a risk asset and its actually down more than the QQQ since the peak in Feb.

There is no perfect hedge thats going to cost nothing in the long run, outside of derivatives like swaps and puts, the cheapest way to hedge is to hold more cash or IG/govt bonds with some duration. For all the panic and hysteria over UST collapse, the belly of the curve (~7yr) has actually been pretty stable over the last few years. Its the same thing for SGS or SGD denominated IG bonds.

I never say BTC is a good hedge…..it is still a risk on asset like QQQ.

I wanted to buy more BTC anyway. So jin cui to earn puny 4% US TBonds with limited upside but unlimited downside and most importantly it has lost its safe haven status for now

risk reward looks better for BTC atm imo

 

[DevilPlate]

Make sense, but the boomers are going to die and leave their houses for their children.

That make millennials even more rich?

 

[d5dude]

Make sense, but the boomers are going to die and leave their houses for their children.

Yea but the rich heirs will just spend more on their homes and children, this is more of an inequality issue, doubt it’s going to impact consumption patterns.

 

[DevilPlate]

Yea but the rich heirs will just spend more on their homes and children, this is more of an inequality issue, doubt it’s going to impact consumption patterns.

Maybe US citizens consumption patterns gona be affected by Trump?
Bleak future….cui stock market, cui bond market, huge tariff tax…..hopeless liao so all going to save up like Chinese

 

[peachmouse]

A different view on Trump's tariffs:

 

[DevilPlate]

US 10y Tbonds 4.3%
German 10y Tbonds yield drop to 2.5%

USA machiam downgraded to Emerging Market with stock/bond/dollar crashing at the same time

 

[stanlawj]

A different view on Trump's tariffs:

I read the whole things. TLDR: investments will pause, then change places. But no info on how this affects stock prices. So, my take:

1. US big tech need to invest in US over many years. Also manufacturing in US instead of in Taiwan or China or Korea will result in higher costs, so eat into their profit margins as well.. Hence => Lower equity valuations.
2. European SWFs will SELL their US equity and UST holdings to get USD to invest in their OWN domestic industry to diversify away from US tech dependence.
3. Less trade with US => less trade surplus for non-US countries => less need to buy US investment assets => less demand for US stocks and UST.

#1 and #2 already in the process of being priced in... but #3 not yet. #2 is a long multi-year process, it doesn't happen all at once, but is the opposite of what happened between 2011 to 2020 during which foreign SWFs piled into US equities during the social media boom.

 

[sky1978]

1. US big tech need to invest in US over many years. Also manufacturing in US instead of in Taiwan or China or Korea will result in higher costs, so eat into their profit margins as well.. Hence => Lower equity valuations.

There is an article today on this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/tariffs-wont-bring-manufacturing-back-to-us-supply-chain-survey.html