USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[elvintay07]

As usual, most clowns miss the boat. Haha! Huat ah! Thanks to hard balls Adam Khoo, Tom Lee. Total respect

 

[elvintay07]

My sifu leong

Alibaba 1 mth performance down 9%
Microsoft up 9%

China got 5,000 years history, lol! All the duakang China supporter ownself celebrate ownself

 

[d9lives]

My sifu leong

Alibaba 1 mth performance down 9%
Microsoft up 9%

China got 5,000 years history, lol! All the duakang China supporter ownself celebrate ownself

Ima laugh at you by end of may.
Betting on alibaba.
All calls, no stock.
Feast your eyes.

 

[highsulphur]

Why is US market up today when they just announced q1 had a contraction?

 

[davonir]

As expected, the bear rally due to low liquidity and slope of hope news happened.

According to my trading thesis (err, my non existent "tea leaves" thesis), NDX could be heading down here to 16,xxx or even 15,xxx level. SPX back to 4,8xx and below. Things might bounce up and down along the way down to give hope to bulls, as expected in a bear market.

US stocks are not in a good place. Better opportunities exist elsewhere (in EU, China)

Good luck to those who longed here in the US equity and bond markets. Hope you are watching carefully.

 

[stanlawj]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/bus...courts-contempt-order-epic-games-case-5102956

What's next for Apple after US court's contempt order in Epic Games case?​

Epic sued in 2020 to loosen Apple's control over transactions in applications that use its iOS operating system and how apps are distributed to consumers. The judge’s prior order required Apple to give developers more power to steer app users to non-Apple payment options that avoid Apple's 30 per cent commission.

Apple failed to convince the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the injunction, and it went into effect in early 2024. The new ruling concerned whether Apple had complied with terms of the injunction.

The judge accused Apple of “insubordination” and said it had tried to cover up its decision-making process from the court.

WHAT MUST APPLE DO NOW?

Gonzalez Rogers said Apple must end several practices that she said were designed to circumvent her injunction, including a new 27 per cent fee it imposed on app developers when Apple customers complete an app purchase outside the App Store.

She also barred the company from using “scare screens” to deter consumers from using third-party payment options. Apple had denied violating terms of the court’s order.

CAN APPLE APPEAL?

Yes. Apple said it disagreed with the court’s ruling and will ask the San Francisco-based 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to review the order.

Apple could ask the court to immediately pause Gonzalez Rogers’ order while it pursues its challenge. The appeal could move relatively quickly, since most of the complex antitrust issues in the case have already been resolved.

Apple might face a high bar in its appeal, given the extensive factual record developed by Epic at the lower court. Appeals courts can be deferential to trial judges under those circumstances.

After the 9th Circuit rules, either side can ask the U.S. Supreme Court to review the decision.

--------------
IMO, Apple will likely lose its monopoly on app store payment. It is unlikely the Court of Appeals will side with Apple. It's even damn obvious to me that Apple is trying to circumvent the initial ruling.
No proper Apple Intelligence, no B2B cloud AI biz, losing China market share, must spend a lot of money to invest in US manufacturing, and now losing app store monopoly for good... I don't understand why AAPL is a good buy based on current PEs at price >200.

Another commentary on AAPL post-earnings here:

 

[elvintay07]

As expected, the bear rally due to low liquidity and slope of hope news happened.

According to my trading thesis (err, my non existent "tea leaves" thesis), NDX could be heading down here to 16,xxx or even 15,xxx level. SPX back to 4,8xx and below. Things might bounce up and down along the way down to give hope to bulls, as expected in a bear market.

US stocks are not in a good place. Better opportunities exist elsewhere (in EU, China)

Good luck to those who longed here in the US equity and bond markets. Hope you are watching carefully.

Interesting. Are you Master Leong? If China no up then chop bird bird ah

 

[davonir]

Interesting. Are you Master Leong? If China no up then chop bird bird ah

I'm not any Master. As mentioned earlier, I don't have any trading edge, only good at reading tea leaves and WSB posts as my sources of truth.

For China, I'm actually bullish on certain stocks like BABA, and some EU stocks, I am waiting for a chance to enter at my buy level. But bearish on US stocks.

 

[DevilPlate]

Why is US market up today when they just announced q1 had a contraction?

Because good msft earnings

GDP down largely due to surge in IMPORT
Next qtr GDP is unknown

 

[stanlawj]

AI stock picker wins: Since Apr 24, SPY +1.2% but

MSFT: +10.7%
META: +7.8%
AAPL: +2%
AMZN: +1.6%
GOOGL: 1.2%

PLTR: +9.9%
DUOL: +7%
DDOG: +6%
PATH: +5.5%
SNOW: +5%
ADBE: 4.8%
NOW: +3.33%
CRM: +2.7%

The article from Citrini Research, titled "Thematic Primer: Artificial Intelligence, Phase 2," discusses the evolving landscape of artificial intelligence (AI) investments, particularly the shift from infrastructure-focused investments to application-centric opportunities.


Phase 1: Infrastructure Build-Up
Initially, the AI boom, especially after the release of ChatGPT, led to significant investments in the infrastructure necessary to support large language models (LLMs). Companies like Nvidia, SuperMicro, and Dell benefited as they provided the hardware required for AI computations. This phase was characterized by a race to acquire GPUs and build data centers, leading to substantial capital expenditures.


Transition to Phase 2: Application and Implementation
Citrini Research posits that the AI industry is now entering Phase 2, where the focus shifts from merely building infrastructure to effectively utilizing it. This phase emphasizes the importance of companies that can implement AI solutions to derive tangible benefits, rather than those solely providing the underlying hardware. The success in this phase depends on the ability to integrate AI into products and services that directly impact end-users.


Market Adjustments and Strategic Shifts
Recognizing the saturation in infrastructure investments, Citrini Research adjusted its investment strategy. They exited positions in companies like Nvidia and took short positions on semiconductor ETFs, anticipating a market correction due to overvaluation in the hardware sector. This move proved prudent as it helped avoid significant drawdowns.


Implications for Investors
The key takeaway is that future investment opportunities in AI will likely stem from companies that can effectively apply AI technologies to create user-centric solutions. As AI becomes more accessible and cost-effective, the competitive advantage will shift to those who can leverage AI to enhance products and services, rather than those who supply the computational tools.


Conclusion
In summary, the AI investment landscape is transitioning from a focus on building capabilities to applying them. Investors should consider focusing on companies that demonstrate the ability to integrate AI into their offerings in meaningful ways, as these are poised to be the primary beneficiaries in this next phase of AI development.

As we move into “Phase 2” of AI (where the focus is on applying AI rather than building the infrastructure), the companies most likely to benefit over the next 5–10 years are those that:

1. Already have massive user bases or distribution channels, and
2. Can implement AI in ways that improve productivity, personalization, efficiency, or customer experience.

Potential Long-Term Winners (Application Layer — Phase 2)​

Tech Giants with Strong Platforms​

These companies already have the infrastructure and are now layering AI into their core products:

• Microsoft (MSFT) – Huge investment in OpenAI, integrating GPT into Office (Copilot), Azure, Teams, and GitHub.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) – DeepAI + Search + YouTube personalization + Google Workspace. Their Gemini model will be applied across services.
• Meta (META) – Strong moves in AI-driven recommendation systems (Instagram, Facebook), AI ads, and Llama models.
• Amazon (AMZN) – Applying AI to AWS, Alexa, logistics, and advertising. Their Bedrock service powers custom AI for enterprise clients.
• Apple (AAPL) – Quiet but strong: expect them to apply AI in iOS, Siri, Apple Health, and Vision Pro. They focus on UX, which will be critical in Phase 2.

Enterprise SaaS Players (AI-Powered Workflow Tools)​

These are platforms businesses use every day — and AI upgrades can meaningfully drive retention and upsell:

• Salesforce (CRM) – Rolling out Einstein GPT into its CRM platform.
• ServiceNow (NOW) – Automating enterprise workflows with AI, strong moat in large corporates.
• Adobe (ADBE) – Firefly and AI integrations in Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud.

Emerging AI-First Application Companies​

These are still earlier-stage or mid-cap companies that natively build around AI:

• UiPath (PATH) – AI + RPA (Robotic Process Automation). Making enterprises more efficient by automating repetitive tasks.
• Duolingo (DUOL) – Integrating AI tutors into language learning. Great engagement and network effects.
• Palantir (PLTR) – Their AI-powered decision platforms are gaining traction in government and private sectors.
• DataDog (DDOG) / Snowflake (SNOW) – Infrastructure monitoring and data warehousing companies turning increasingly AI-native.

---

How to Think About It​

• Phase 1 = picks and shovels (Nvidia, SMCI, Broadcom).
• Phase 2 = apps and utility layer (who can use the picks and shovels the best?).

 

[yslvlys]

Added EVVTY

 

[stanlawj]

Big jump in volume for 3X leveraged inverse ETF BERZ.
This may be short-term bearish signal. Not surprising after market was green for so many days in a row.

Top 10 Holdings (69.23% of Total Assets)​

SymbolCompany% Assets
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.7.35%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation7.20%
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.7.06%
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.6.95%
NFLX
Netflix, Inc.6.93%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.6.88%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation6.83%
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.6.83%
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.6.61%
ADBE
Adobe Inc.6.60%

 

[davonir]

Entered more shorts earlier today in ZB (bond), NQ futures earlier.

Expecting the bigger move down in both markets if my trading tea-sis is correct.

 

[mooseolly]

Interesting. Are you Master Leong? If China no up then chop bird bird ah

Very interesting, we got people looking at stars and leaves (same pattern) giving FUD.

 

[elvintay07]

I'm not any Master. As mentioned earlier, I don't have any trading edge, only good at reading tea leaves and WSB posts as my sources of truth.

For China, I'm actually bullish on certain stocks like BABA, and some EU stocks, I am waiting for a chance to enter at my buy level. But bearish on US stocks.

like that miss the boat already la. Master said time to enter Alibaba is months ago. Never gg to hit that low according to him, Europe I think also not hitting new low.

US maybe hitting new low. Actually 90% of the ppl say it is doom for US. My bears friends said wait for signal Tesla $30 then they enter. They said Microsoft should be $200 or worst $80 (aka dom com crash). 1m65 bring his experts group of friends and say next few years could be US lost decade. They said now it is time to avoid property and start planning for cash flow. lol!

Most of my bull friends including me still slowly enter. One of them planned a $200k DCA over 24 months. Another guy hoot $100k and kana the previous low. But our balls starts shrinking liao. Lucky a few things we did sensibly

(1) Enter property market during covid to clock some earnings
(2) While ppl is all celebrating end of covid and all rushing to go 5-6 holidays a year, we all reserving holiday bullets by taking bus/ driving to JB.
(3) Clearing debts and pumping up reserves.
(4) Some even sold their car and take MRT

When recession hits, (a) need to make sure don’t tio retrench (b) if never tio retrench then time to start buying stocks (c) can also start buying car if COE is low

Having said that, maybe ppl over worry too much and nothing happens hence saving money is like money putting into coffin and eventually no chance to deploy.

My views:
(1) Always do opposite of what most ppl will do (enter China, Europe, exit US). I prefer to enter US
(2) Many ppl clapped when China said they survived 5,000 years and US is not even there. Most has orgasm when China said they will continue for another 5,000 years. My view is that ppl see China too up. Personally I feel they wasted 5,000 years to only achieve that they achieve today. I think next 5,000 years they may achieve nothing as they will self destruct. US only becomes a national is 1776 and strangely they have achieved so much in that short time frame.
(3) Lastly, Warren Buffett say trust “America”. I doubt he will be wrong. Also I feel countries that are managed by 1 person aka “emperor liked” like China is riskier than the democratic system of US. You see those empire (Roman, Mongol, Persian) that went extinct are mostly ruled by 1 person.

Haha! Everyone all guessing but see who has the most accurate guess. Haha!

 

[elvintay07]

Very interesting, we got people looking at stars and leaves (same pattern) giving FUD.

lol! Got who looks at girls?

 

[elvintay07]

My sifu taught me. Just whack the market with the most capital. Today the best of the best companies wants to raise funds, where they go? We just follow the money.

The rest don’t need to think so hard. Last week my bear friends tell me “Singapore market” could be the market to watch.

I replied him to say that our opposition got elites like “Dr Gigene Wong”, I think this market is over. lol! Everyone keep complaining about PAP lousy, then Gigene Wong better? Can represent Singapore and give us stronger ties with India, China and US? If she talk like that to Trump, I scare next moment they hoot nuclear to Singapore. lol! But she is example of China trained expats. Heard she very high level and came back from China.

 

[stanlawj]

Entered more shorts earlier today in ZB (bond), NQ futures earlier.

Expecting the bigger move down in both markets if my trading tea-sis is correct.

I shorted AAPL, but no guts to hold more than 1 day. Just pocket US$1k and run.

 

[d9lives]

I shorted AAPL, but no guts to hold more than 1 day. Just pocket US$1k and run.

Me too. Balls are shrinking.
I closed all my calls on amd, nvidia, amazon and sofi last night and pocketed 10k.
On hit & run mode now.

No more hodl and leaps. Just weeklies.
Trump can post a meme and market will react to it.
Gonna close abnb put tonight.

 

[elvintay07]

Me too. Balls are shrinking.
I closed all my calls on amd, nvidia, amazon and sofi last night and pocketed 10k.
On hit & run mode now.

No more hodl and leaps. Just weeklies.
Trump can post a meme and market will react to it.
Gonna close abnb put tonight.

Yeah. I took profit also on Nvidia etc. actually now if short term can get gains like 10-15%, just take it. Since some experts here say may hit new low. This kind of see saw quite nice to make money,