USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[DevilPlate]

like that miss the boat already la. Master said time to enter Alibaba is months ago. Never gg to hit that low according to him, Europe I think also not hitting new low.

US maybe hitting new low. Actually 90% of the ppl say it is doom for US. My bears friends said wait for signal Tesla $30 then they enter. They said Microsoft should be $200 or worst $80 (aka dom com crash). 1m65 bring his experts group of friends and say next few years could be US lost decade. They said now it is time to avoid property and start planning for cash flow. lol!

Most of my bull friends including me still slowly enter. One of them planned a $200k DCA over 24 months. Another guy hoot $100k and kana the previous low. But our balls starts shrinking liao. Lucky a few things we did sensibly

(1) Enter property market during covid to clock some earnings
(2) While ppl is all celebrating end of covid and all rushing to go 5-6 holidays a year, we all reserving holiday bullets by taking bus/ driving to JB.
(3) Clearing debts and pumping up reserves.
(4) Some even sold their car and take MRT

When recession hits, (a) need to make sure don’t tio retrench (b) if never tio retrench then time to start buying stocks (c) can also start buying car if COE is low

Having said that, maybe ppl over worry too much and nothing happens hence saving money is like money putting into coffin and eventually no chance to deploy.

My views:
(1) Always do opposite of what most ppl will do (enter China, Europe, exit US). I prefer to enter US
(2) Many ppl clapped when China said they survived 5,000 years and US is not even there. Most has orgasm when China said they will continue for another 5,000 years. My view is that ppl see China too up. Personally I feel they wasted 5,000 years to only achieve that they achieve today. I think next 5,000 years they may achieve nothing as they will self destruct. US only becomes a national is 1776 and strangely they have achieved so much in that short time frame.
(3) Lastly, Warren Buffett say trust “America”. I doubt he will be wrong. Also I feel countries that are managed by 1 person aka “emperor liked” like China is riskier than the democratic system of US. You see those empire (Roman, Mongol, Persian) that went extinct are mostly ruled by 1 person.

Haha! Everyone all guessing but see who has the most accurate guess. Haha!

U just need to wait to inherit big big Landed can liao lah.

No need so much guess work…..can js shake leg air balls whahahaha

 

[quekkb]

What's the justification for UAE stocks in the near term?

UAE currency is peg to USD. They don't manufactured products and export to US other than dig from ground for the oil and export to US. So they should be less impact in their economy. Plus they are super rich.

 

[stanlawj]

Strongest currency this morning:
1. Malaysian Ringgit
2. Singapore Dollar
3. Chinese offshore RMB

Weakest is JPY, USD.
It's weird.

Update: USDSGD going to break below 1.30 by evening.

Update: I think figured it out. Carry trade now to Asia ex-China currencies. Short JPY to go long SGD, MYR, TWD, KRW, etc... I'm losing money on both JPY and USD... what a shocker.

 

[stanlawj]

Someone is promoting IREN as datacenter play, not just a bitcoin miner.

 

[weng0202]

like that miss the boat already la. Master said time to enter Alibaba is months ago. Never gg to hit that low according to him, Europe I think also not hitting new low.

US maybe hitting new low. Actually 90% of the ppl say it is doom for US. My bears friends said wait for signal Tesla $30 then they enter. They said Microsoft should be $200 or worst $80 (aka dom com crash). 1m65 bring his experts group of friends and say next few years could be US lost decade. They said now it is time to avoid property and start planning for cash flow. lol!

Most of my bull friends including me still slowly enter. One of them planned a $200k DCA over 24 months. Another guy hoot $100k and kana the previous low. But our balls starts shrinking liao. Lucky a few things we did sensibly

(1) Enter property market during covid to clock some earnings
(2) While ppl is all celebrating end of covid and all rushing to go 5-6 holidays a year, we all reserving holiday bullets by taking bus/ driving to JB.
(3) Clearing debts and pumping up reserves.
(4) Some even sold their car and take MRT

When recession hits, (a) need to make sure don’t tio retrench (b) if never tio retrench then time to start buying stocks (c) can also start buying car if COE is low

Having said that, maybe ppl over worry too much and nothing happens hence saving money is like money putting into coffin and eventually no chance to deploy.

My views:
(1) Always do opposite of what most ppl will do (enter China, Europe, exit US). I prefer to enter US
(2) Many ppl clapped when China said they survived 5,000 years and US is not even there. Most has orgasm when China said they will continue for another 5,000 years. My view is that ppl see China too up. Personally I feel they wasted 5,000 years to only achieve that they achieve today. I think next 5,000 years they may achieve nothing as they will self destruct. US only becomes a national is 1776 and strangely they have achieved so much in that short time frame.
(3) Lastly, Warren Buffett say trust “America”. I doubt he will be wrong. Also I feel countries that are managed by 1 person aka “emperor liked” like China is riskier than the democratic system of US. You see those empire (Roman, Mongol, Persian) that went extinct are mostly ruled by 1 person.

Haha! Everyone all guessing but see who has the most accurate guess. Haha!

I though the narrative was lost decade for China? How come now reverse become US?

 

[stanlawj]

Ima laugh at you by end of may.
Betting on alibaba.
All calls, no stock.
Feast your eyes.

Wah.. you got Grab and Baba calls... printing lots of money now.
Money went out of US stocks to Asian/EM local monopoly-like consumer stocks that don't really get affected by tariff war.

 

[d5dude]

Yes, you're absolutely correct! I have no edge, the only trading edge I have is looking at random WSB posts, tea leaves, phases of the moon, and measuring the aspects and trines of the planetary system.

However, one fateful night I saw a reddit post and the stars and planets did align and it prompted me enter a ZB short, although I know nothing absolutely about this market at all.

What does ZB stand for? Zoolala Bro or something, am I right?



I bow in fear in the light of the superior knowledge of d5dude
I beseech you to impart me your powers, O Master d5dude
For I am not worthy of your greatness and supreme intellect
Speaketh not to me O Master d5dude for I am not worthy!
Banish me from the confines and depths of your conversations
For I am but a spawn of Dunning-Kruger

I was just stating a fact (the fed is forbidden from buying US bonds in the primary market), you were totally wrong about the Fed's supposed activity in the primary market.

So you made some small money trading bond futures and you think you have an edge? Have you ever heard of this thing called luck?

 

[d5dude]

I believe it will take years and maybe even drag on after Trump’s term to settle trade war with China.

Not sure why the stock market is so optimistic for past week. Its like completely rule out Recession probability.

Its certainly not going to take years, Trump is already running out of time, I think even his base has buyer's remorse now.

https://www.firstpost.com/web-show/...ecades-poll-firstpost-america-n18g-vd1083632/

Most of the tariffs will go away eventually but the damage has been done, as many have pointed out lately, Trump has tarnished America's brand.

 

[d5dude]

CPF FRS is the simplest true measure of SGD$ inflation. What the SG Govt impose on your savings for retirement, is what they expect costs will rise. SG Govt is incentivised to keep this statistic on the upper range as it taxes the citizens.
Whereas the SG Govt is incentivised to keep CPI always on the lower range of estimation to legitimise themselves for election purposes.

And the economists and financiers who proclaim gold is not an indicator of inflation, have been paid to serve their masters: the wealthy who own and control the assets.

Let me ask you, in your first year of work, you are paid 4 gold ounces per month.
10 years later, you rise up the company ranks to become manager. How much should you be paid per month now?
A. 4 gold oz
B. <4 gold oz
C. >4 gold oz

Employer and shareholders benefits from option B (while shareholders want their company shares to be inflation hedge), so the economics theory in university all teach theory to justify option B. Hence that is why, gold price is officially NOT a good indicator of inflation.

Gold is not money, its a commodity. You might as well say that actual inflation is 20000% because bitcoin has gone up that much in the last 10 years.

 

[stanlawj]

Gold is not money, its a commodity. You might as well say that actual inflation is 20000% because bitcoin has gone up that much in the last 10 years.

Central bankers, including those outside US financial system, buy gold and use it to trade for foreign currencies. That's good enough.

 

[d5dude]

Central bankers, including those outside US financial system, buy gold and use it to trade for foreign currencies. That's good enough.

They also own and trade other assets like equities, this doesn’t mean that stocks are a good proxy for inflation. S&P is up 700% since 2010, I’m sure nobody will argue that actual inflation is 700% over this period.

 

[stanlawj]

They also own and trade other assets like equities, this doesn’t mean that stocks are a good proxy for inflation. S&P is up 700% since 2010, I’m sure nobody will argue that actual inflation is 700% over this period.

Those equities need to be first sold into the currency of the country of domicile.
US-listed equities & UST can only be redeemed for USD.
Japan-listed equities & JGBs can only be redeemed for JPY.

Gold can be sold (i.e redeemed) in ANY currency chosen by the other party.

 

[d5dude]

Those equities need to be first sold into the currency of the country of domicile.
US-listed equities & UST can only be redeemed for USD.
Japan-listed equities & JGBs can only be redeemed for JPY.

Gold can be sold (i.e redeemed) in ANY currency chosen by the other party.

Eh that doesn’t make much sense to me. Stocks are not currencies, like any other commodity they can be bought and sold in various currencies. Many foreign companies have listings on the NYSE, this doesn’t turn them into dollar denominated assets.

But yes UST bonds and JGBs is just longer term money, that I agree.

 

[d9lives]

.

Wah.. you got Grab and Baba calls... printing lots of money now.
Money went out of US stocks to Asian/EM local monopoly-like consumer stocks that don't really get affected by tariff war.

4/5 listed are already deep ITM.
Grab is improving massively

 

[stanlawj]

AAPL committed to $100B share buyback. Insane amount. Cannot short AAPL.
Better to short profit-challenged cyclical commodity companies like HL (Hecla Mining). -5% from yesterday and still running down.

 

[stanlawj]

Pros are using this rally to sell (if they didn't sell during the Liberation Day crash).

 

[DevilPlate]

Pros are using this rally to sell (if they didn't sell during the Liberation Day crash).

Wow he keep winning sia

 

[yslvlys]

Pros are using this rally to sell (if they didn't sell during the Liberation Day crash).

He said he's selling his cost/initial capital only, meaning only 1/6 of holdings. He still expects the rest to moon.

 

[d5dude]

White House skinny budget is out, Trump is proposing a massive 163b cut in non defense spending (e.g education) and a 113b increase in defense spending.

Looks like global rearming is accelerating, European defense stocks continue to rocket higher.

 

[elvintay07]

Palantir has recovered to previous high. Seems like those doomsayer has missed the boat. lol!