Our GDP growth is slowing down, and the SGD is too strong.
There is a good chance that MAS will weaken the SGD soon to help with the export.
Higher chance of monetary policy loosening
Alongside the dimmer growth outlook, 57.9 per cent of respondents expect monetary policy to be loosened in July’s upcoming policy meeting.
Most of them expect this to happen via a flattening of the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate policy band, while two expect the slope to be reduced but not flattened.
This is in contrast to the March survey, where most expected it to be unchanged. In its last quarterly meeting in April, MAS eased monetary policy for the second straight time by reducing the slope of the band.
One respondent expects the policy band to be re-centred lower in July – indicating a fundamental change in the path of growth and inflation – while two expect this to happen in October.
Similar to the last survey, only one respondent expects the band to be widened in July – a move taken when uncertainty is expected to persist.
In line with Maybank’s upbeat view, Dr Chua expects MAS to stand pat at both its July and October meetings.
“The economy is slowing down to near potential growth, not collapsing,” he explained. “MAS will likely shift to a neutral bias only if the economy grinds to a halt or slips into a recession.”
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/si...cast-1-7-manufacturing-expected-shrink-survey
Re-exports are basically making use of Singapore's Free Trade Agreements signed with various nations so the exporters can avoid or lower the tax rates compared to shipping directly to the destinations.
Oil exports or should I say most exports between countries are typically paid in USD rather than the local currency.
A strong SGD benefits Singaporeans more by lowering inflation. But not particularly helpful with exports because we are not a manufacturing nation in the first place. It doesn't make us less competitive.
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Merchandise (Goods) Exports – 2023
According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and SingStat figures:
Re‑exports (goods imported and then exported): ~ 55.3% of total merchandise exports
Oil domestic exports: ~ 17.5%
Non‑oil domestic exports: ~ 27.1%
Top Non‑Oil Domestic Exports (2024 SingStat):
Machinery & Transport Equipment: S$70.4 b — ~ 40.5% of non‑oil domestic exports (~ 11% of merchandise exports)
Chemicals & Chemical Products: S$44.4 b — ~ 25.6% (~ 7%)
Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles: S$28.6 b — ~ 16.5% (~ 4%)
Other smaller categories (e.g., food, crude materials) contribute the remaining ~17%.
OEC data (2023) shows top individual products:
Integrated circuits: US$64 b
Refined petroleum: US$56 b
Other machinery: US$18 b
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Services Exports – 2024
Total services exports: S$528.6 b
Breakdown by category:
Transport services: S$173 b — ~ 32.7%
Financial services: S$71.6 b — ~ 13.6%
Telecom, computer & info: S$41.1 b — ~ 7.8%
Charges for use of IP: S$26.3 b — ~ 5.0%
Business management: S$45.9 b — ~ 8.7%
Travel, insurance, repair, other make up the remaining ~32%.
Focusing on sector values:
Transport: 32.1%
Other business services: 29.2%
Financial services: 13.3%
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Summary Table: Exports by Sector (~2023–2024)
CategoryValue (S$ b)% of Same Export TypeApprox % of Total Exports
Merchandise Exports (2023)~ 638 b $––
• Re-exports~ 353 b55.3%~ 32%
• Oil domestic~ 112 b17.5%~ 10%
• Non-oil domestic~ 173 b27.1%~ 15%
— Machinery & Transport Equipment70.4 b~40.5% of non-oil~ 6%
— Chemicals & Chemical Products44.4 b~25.6% of non-oil~ 4%
— Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles28.6 b~16.5% of non-oil~ 3%
Services Exports (2024)528.6 b––
• Transport173 b32.7% of services~ 16%
• Financial71.6 b13.6% of services~ 7%
• Telecom, computer & information41.1 b7.8%~ 4%
• Business management45.9 b8.7%~ 4%
• IP charges26.3 b5.0%~ 2.5%
• Other categories~170 b~32%~ 16%
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Key Takeaways
Merchandise exports are heavily skewed toward re-exports (~55%), alongside significant oil (~17%) and non-oil domestic exports (~27%).
Within non-oil goods, machinery, chemicals, and manufactured items dominate.
Services exports lean heavily on transport, business services, and financial services, which together exceed 50%.
