USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[stanlawj]

OMG. rate limits for Claude Opus 4.5 were hit.

Morgan Stanley (likely private client research note, not public) says Anthropic’s ClaudeCode + Cowork is dominating investor chatter and adding pressure on software. They flag OpenRouter token growth “going vertical,” plus anecdotes that the Cowork launch pushed usage hard enough to crash Opus 4.5 and hit rate limits, framing it as another “GPT moment” and a net positive for AI capex.

 

[Krabs.]

if starlink can get a trillion market cap ... this competitor is also worth something

currently 200 sats compared to starlink's over 9000
minimum viable intermittent service is estimated around 600 to 900 sats

https://spacenews.com/arianespace-to-begin-amazon-leo-launches-in-february/
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47811.1700

 

[stanlawj]

Cut loss on MRVL. All technical indicators have turned negative in spite of the AI good news of more capex spending by TSMC.
Took profit on IREN, in view of the approaching Jan FOMC meeting likely to create some reverse reaction.

 

[stanlawj]

Google and META's turn to get bombed.
Let the ad wars begin.

 

[mooseolly]

More earnings are coming. Investors have to be very clear what strategies to adopt as it is going to be wild. IMO, SP500 is just recently hit ATH and this is the mid term I think there will be alot of opportunities ahead.

Strategy	Risk	Reward	Best For...
Conserve Cash	Missing a massive rally; inflation erosion.	Protection against a post-earnings "crash."	Conservative investors or those with high current exposure.
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)	Buying into a decline.	Smoothes out entry price; avoids timing errors.	Long-term investors who want to stay disciplined.
Lump Sum Pre-Earnings	High "binary" risk (all or nothing).	Capturing the full "gap up" if earnings beat.	Aggressive traders with high conviction in the data.

​

 

[stanlawj]

More earnings are coming. Investors have to be very clear what strategies to adopt as it is going to be wild. IMO, SP500 is just recently hit ATH and this is the mid term I think there will be alot of opportunities ahead.

Strategy	Risk	Reward	Best For...
Conserve Cash	Missing a massive rally; inflation erosion.	Protection against a post-earnings "crash."	Conservative investors or those with high current exposure.
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)	Buying into a decline.	Smoothes out entry price; avoids timing errors.	Long-term investors who want to stay disciplined.
Lump Sum Pre-Earnings	High "binary" risk (all or nothing).	Capturing the full "gap up" if earnings beat.	Aggressive traders with high conviction in the data.

​

Corporate earnings for SaaS should go down over time. The bottom is not in so soon.

Adam Khoo just published a bull case for SaaS. The problem is the adjustment is multi-year, and during that time, PE multiples will go down as SaaS needs to re-invest cashflow to retool for AI agents instead of human customers, especially for B2B.

Adam Khoo always tends to be too early by 1 to 2 years. AK followers need to beware that being too early = wrong.

 

[mooseolly]

Corporate earnings for SaaS should go down over time. The bottom is not in so soon.

Adam Khoo just published a bull case for SaaS. The problem is the adjustment is multi-year, and during that time, PE multiples will go down as SaaS needs to re-invest cashflow to retool for AI agents instead of human customers, especially for B2B.

Adam Khoo always tends to be too early by 1 to 2 years. AK followers need to beware that being too early = wrong.

If the company is making more revenue, increasing free cashflow and maintaining or increasing profit margins but the stock went the opposite direction, it is the perfect opportunity to add. Not add in one shot but in tranches. When the sentiments switch it will always go back to the fair value.

 

[stanlawj]

If the company is making more revenue, increasing free cashflow and maintaining or increasing profit margins but the stock went the opposite direction, it is the perfect opportunity to add. Not add in one shot but in tranches. When the sentiments switch it will always go back to the fair value.

Market moves ahead of earnings inflection / reversal points. Company revenue is increasing while price goes down means all the future good news already priced in, and bad news is coming soon.

 

[mooseolly]

Market moves ahead of earnings inflection / reversal points. Company revenue is increasing while price goes down means all the future good news already priced in, and bad news is coming soon.

Part of AK’s ideology is to ignore the news. News is designed to screw investors. Can read but only for entertainment purposes.



The market can be very irrational. In the short term the market is a voting machine but in the long term it is a weighing machine.

 

[d5dude]

Part of AK’s ideology is to ignore the news. News is designed to screw investors. Can read but only for entertainment purposes.



The market can be very irrational. In the short term the market is a voting machine but in the long term it is a weighing machine.

That is true but S&P is a broad market index. Saas is only a small segment of the stock market.

My view is that we will see wide dispersion in saas, it will be much bigger than other sectors, its too risky to pick stocks in this sector when AI adoption is still in its infancy.

 

[mooseolly]

That is true but S&P is a broad market index. Saas is only a small segment of the stock market.

My view is that we will see wide dispersion in saas, it will be much bigger than other sectors, its too risky to pick stocks in this sector when AI adoption is still in its infancy.

One very important thing about investing is never put all your money in one sector. Even if the sector don’t work out well in the short term, it will not damage your portfolio.

Only when there is a structural change in the company moat then we avoid it. Otherwise the moat is what will protect it from competition and disruption.

How to see is we can track if the company is undergoing two consecutive years of declining revenue and declining profit margins, then we know it is subjected to intense competition or consumer habits change. Not all saas can be bought. Only the best ones should be considered.

 

[d5dude]

How to see is we can track if the company is undergoing two consecutive years of declining revenue and declining profit margins, then we know it is subjected to intense competition or consumer habits change.

Yes but by then the stock would already be in an 80% drawdown and in terminal decline.

My strategy for picking single stocks is to always choose the ones in strong sectors that are performing, but of course this is not long term investing, I dun hold single stocks for more than a couple of months.

 

[mooseolly]

Yes but by then the stock would already be in an 80% drawdown and in terminal decline.

My strategy for picking single stocks is to always choose the ones in strong sectors that are performing, but of course this is not long term investing, I dun hold single stocks for more than a couple of months.

I am mostly a long. 90% of my portfolio is long term hold. 10% for itchy hand trading (which I often regret )

To me a company that is performing well but stock price down is kio durian. If it already went down alot , the downside risk is limited with huge potential upside. This asymmetric risk to reward ratio I like.

For traders, how well the company performs is of no consequence as mostly is based on technical analysis with protection in place.

Investing is like finding a wife (actually multiple wives ) , her character must be good but trading is is like a one night stand her character doesn’t matter but need to wear protection in case of stds.

 

[TerryPower]

Investing is like finding a wife (actually multiple wives ) , her character must be good but trading is is like a one night stand her character doesn’t matter but need to wear protection in case of stds.

me only Singaporean wives but ONS with tiong, brazilian and ang mo but i don't use protection (stop loss)

 

[stanlawj]

Shay Baloor says wait for the dust to settle, let the winners prove themselves in SaaS in this new era of Agentic AI replacing human customers.
This is also my view.

Just like NVO went into a long downtrend more than 1 year during the GLP wars because NVO stood to lose out on diabetic drug biz.
NVO was not an immediate buy just because it went down. The big catalyst only came by the end of 2025 when NVO got approved for oral Wegovy ahead of Eli Lilly.
If you bought NVO too early, then 1 year of capital wasted being locked up in a downtrending stock, while other sectors like neoclouds and space stocks are rocketing up.

You can choose to listen to Adam Khoo (less than 10% YTD) or listen to Shay Baloor (up +23% YTD).

 

[yslvlys]

Shay Baloor says wait for the dust to settle, let the winners prove themselves in SaaS in this new era of Agentic AI replacing human customers.
This is also my view.

Just like NVO went into a long downtrend more than 1 year during the GLP wars because NVO stood to lose out on diabetic drug biz.
NVO was not an immediate buy just because it went down. The big catalyst only came by the end of 2025 when NVO got approved for oral Wegovy ahead of Eli Lilly.
If you bought NVO too early, then 1 year of capital wasted being locked up in a downtrending stock, while other sectors like neoclouds and space stocks are rocketing up.

You can choose to listen to Adam Khoo (less than 10% YTD) or listen to Shay Baloor (up +23% YTD).

It could be too late to buy when the winners have proven themselves.

 

[sumako]

always buy stock on the right side of the V

 

[stanlawj]

always buy stock on the right side of the V

And cut loss if the stock reverses and breaks previous low.

 

[stanlawj]

It could be too late to buy when the winners have proven themselves.

The capabilities of AI keeps increasing as Nvidia upgrades its AI GPU platform each year to reduce cost$ per token exponentially.
This will be a big dark cloud hanging over SaaS for a long time. Uncertainty about upper limit of AI potential will create a discount.

 

[sumako]

And cut loss if the stock reverses and breaks previous low.

i use LOD.