CHINA Stock Market Analysis

[ValueInvestor]

yes, including their extended family...

it's a nightmare.

some low-brow F&B supervisor marries a work permit china girl from his F&B outlet... and the whole family is imported here.

the hdb flat has 6-8 people living in it, it's quite crazy.

not an isolated case.

GG he tio trap liao

 

[ValueInvestor]

why don't the chinese gov let their market reflect the actual ground situation?

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/27/chinas-national-team-stock-market-ownership.html

anyone?

ironmac / shiny things / perisher?

because a weak market is not good for the china economy

if market weak, cannot attract investment and expansion...
cannot IPO get investors to pump $$$
cannot meet their 6.5% growth target

instead a weak market may cause $$$ to flow out of china
we have seen rich china people investing in US/europe/aussie real estate for example....as they worry of a property crash in china

 

[Mr.Canberra]

instead a weak market may cause $$$ to flow out of china
we have seen rich china people investing in US/europe/aussie real estate for example....as they worry of a property crash in china

Finally a China investment thread.
You'll see me here often as I'm vested in CNY cash holdings.

I beg to differ.

Rich China man is not worried about property crash in China.
Even if the market value drops more than 50% the property still belongs to you as long as you hold on.
It is an unmovable asset and as long as you have the property title deed (red booklet) no one can take it away from you except the government but very unlikely.

What worries the rich China man is asset seizures from the authoritarian communist government.
The final say lies with the government.

Just look at how the China goverment suka suka flip the laws and regulations of the stock market when it crashed and you will understand what I mean.

The rich China man is smart by moving their assets offshore away from the tentacles of the government.

I also encourage fellow Singaporeans to park some assets offshore in case during SG100 Singapore's economy and political situation goes down the drain!

The most dangerous place is sometimes the safest place.
Answer: China.

Hahaha.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Awaiting the big news from IMF's decision to include CNY into the SDR or not on 30th Nov!

My net worth is on the line!

 

[ValueInvestor]

Finally a China investment thread.
You'll see me here often as I'm vested in CNY cash holdings.

I beg to differ.

Rich China man is not worried about property crash in China.
Even if the market value drops more than 50% the property still belongs to you as long as you hold on.
It is an unmovable asset and as long as you have the property title deed (red booklet) no one can take it away from you except the government but very unlikely.

What worries the rich China man is asset seizures from the authoritarian communist government.
The final say lies with the government.

Just look at how the China goverment suka suka flip the laws and regulations of the stock market when it crashed and you will understand what I mean.

The rich China man is smart by moving their assets offshore away from the tentacles of the government.

I also encourage fellow Singaporeans to park some assets offshore in case during SG100 Singapore's economy and political situation goes down the drain!

The most dangerous place is sometimes the safest place.
Answer: China.

Hahaha.

"The most dangerous place is sometimes the safest place."

very high level sia

 

[Shiny Things]

may I ask u... are we able to buy into china's shares, through any non-local brokers?

I understand that TD ameritrade is limited to US market.

So there are a couple of ways to do this. There are a few US- and HK-listed ETFs that own Chinese stocks. Generally they own the H-shares (the HK-listed versions), not the A-shares (the onshore versions), but that's what you want: H-shares are trading at a huge discount to A-shares in most cases, so buying the H-shares gets you the same thing for less money.

There are also ETFs that own Chinese A-shares, but (for the reasons listed above) you probably don't want to own those.

The usual pick for an H-share ETF is probably FXI; for A-shares it's ASHR. (And be aware that the expense ratios on these are really high - like 0.7-0.8%.)

If you want to, you can trade A-shares directly (on Interactive Brokers) through the Shanghai/HK Connect; here's the list of shares you can trade. I mean, again, I don't think this is a good idea - it's a hell of a lot easier and better value to just buy an H-share ETF if you want Chinese index exposure - but it's there if you want a more direct way to set your money on fire.

Is interactive brokers the one that I should look into?

Yep.

 

[newjersey]

because a weak market is not good for the china economy

if market weak, cannot attract investment and expansion...
cannot IPO get investors to pump $$$
cannot meet their 6.5% growth target

instead a weak market may cause $$$ to flow out of china
we have seen rich china people investing in US/europe/aussie real estate for example....as they worry of a property crash in china

very true.

I heard the oz pty markets have gone up by quite a fair bit, from prc chinese money.

the thing gangsta about them is that, the prc chinese ( the rich one, that is ) pay in full, like the indonesian chinese that we are more used to.

 

[Perisher]

why don't the chinese gov let their market reflect the actual ground situation?

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/27/chinas-national-team-stock-market-ownership.html

anyone?

ironmac / shiny things / perisher?

They all have commented so I will just say this, there can be many reasons behind why they manipulate it to this point. Their market are afterall affecting not only their own people but also the world.

Made no mistake though, all governments manipulate their markets to a certain extent, China just being more so.
Reflecting the sentiment on the ground whereby retailers hold most of the market will result in extreme swing in market that will eventually make people lose confidence.

Finally a China investment thread.
You'll see me here often as I'm vested in CNY cash holdings.

Haha, nobody is stopping you from having one here as long as it's stock market. The traffic here will depend on how popular the market is.
See you around then.

 

[newjersey]

ok, peeps,

let this be the appropriate thread to discuss on the performance of BAT.

B : Baidu, China's Google equivalent
A : Alibaba, China's Amazon / Ebay equivalent
T : Tencent, China's Facebook equivalent

This should be the appropriate thread to discuss about their stock valuation, performance outlook, etc, since this is fundamentally a China-focused stock grouping.

For the uninitiated general readers, Baidu & Alibaba are listed on US stock exchange, while Tencent is listed on the HK stock exchange.

Tencent operates 2 social media apps, QQ & WeChat.

If I did not understand this wrongly, WeChat is designed to takeover QQ? Nevertheless, most PRC folks I know are on WeChat.

There's also a stronger ecosystem on WeChat, compared to QQ.

Let's discuss...

 

[newjersey]

is it smart to buy tencent through ADR in US stock market?

or

should I go through the elbow grease to get my IB account up and running, so that I can trade in tencent stocks directly in the HKSE?

 

[Mr.Canberra]

is it smart to buy tencent through ADR in US stock market?

or

should I go through the elbow grease to get my IB account up and running, so that I can trade in tencent stocks directly in the HKSE?

Not vested in Tencent but long term wise big potential.
Reason is very simple.

Everyone in China is using WeChat.
Not only as a chat App but as a digital currency payment and investment products platform as well.
Best part is no service fee unlike stupid PayPal.

Unfortunately you can only link a bank account opened in China to your WeChat account.

WeChat is the China's version of Facebook, WhatsApp, Skype and PayPal combined into one.

Also many stores and supermarkets in China accept digital currency payment by Alipay and WeChat.
Singapore may be no. 1 in many things but when it comes to internet banking and digital currency payment China is moving very fast!

 

[newjersey]

can safely leave sg out of our discussion here.

I am not impressed by sg, compared to the speed of development in cn.

only our gov is impressed with sg... since we pay more for the services than the most powerful position in the world, i.e. the president of USA.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

can safely leave sg out of our discussion here.

I am not impressed by sg, compared to the speed of development in cn.

only our gov is impressed with sg... since we pay more for the services than the most powerful position in the world, i.e. the president of USA.

For those who are staying in China will know long term wise there is big potential for domestic consumption growth in China.

Can you imagine even 3rd Tier cities in China are already adopting digital currency payments via mobile Apps.

The ironic and impressive part about China is most foreigners still think China is behind the curve in many things.
The real fact is China is now leading in many areas.

Tell me which country in this world that has high speed train network (first world transportation) in rural towns of 3rd Tier cities in such a short period of time?

Only in China. Hahahaha.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

IMF approves China's yuan as elite reserve currency

This just in!
The news I've been waiting for!

PBOC must be popping champagne now!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-approves-chinas-yuan-elite-172619635.html

The International Monetary Fund welcomed China's yuan into its elite reserve currency basket on Monday, recognizing the ascendance of the Asian power in the global economy.

The yuan, also known as the renminbi, will join the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen and British pound next year in the basket of currencies the IMF uses as an international reserve asset.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde called the decision "an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy into the global financial system."

"It is also a recognition of the progress that the Chinese authorities have made in the past years in reforming China's monetary and financial systems."

The move by the IMF executive board, representing the institution's 188 member nations, solidifies China's ambition to see the yuan achieve global status as one of the world's top currencies.

China, the world's second-largest economy, asked last year for the yuan to be added to the Special Drawing Rights basket, but until recently it was considered too tightly controlled to qualify. The yuan already had met the IMF's criteria for being widely used.

The board approval had been widely expected after IMF staff experts earlier in November said that Chinese authorities had taken the steps necessary for the yuan to be called "freely usable", and Lagarde endorsed their recommendation.

Lagarde said the yuan's inclusion in the basket was expected to help China open up further to the world economy.

"The continuation and deepening of these efforts will bring about a more robust international monetary and financial system, which in turn will support the growth and stability of China and the global economy," she said.

IMF members can use the Special Drawing Rights basket to obtain currencies to meet balance-of-payments needs. The Fund also issues its crisis loans -- crucial to struggling economies like Greece -- valued in SDRs.

The yuan's entry into the basket takes effect on October 1, 2016.

 

[newjersey]

the Yuan becoming a reserve currency is pretty inevitable.

but... may I ask, what are it's implications, as relevant to the stock markets?

does this mean that chinese stocks would be more bullish, from it, as a sign of credibility or?

care to share, thanks.

( Shiny Things, love your input on this, really + IronMac + Perisher too )

 

[IronMac]

Tell me which country in this world that has high speed train network (first world transportation) in rural towns of 3rd Tier cities in such a short period of time?

Well, none. Of course, that means slapping together hardware and systems without much thought for longevity and durability. Let's see how long it lasts given that it's already been forced to reduce its top speeds.

 

[IronMac]

the Yuan becoming a reserve currency is pretty inevitable.

but... may I ask, what are it's implications, as relevant to the stock markets?

Irrelevant.

 

[newjersey]

Irrelevant.

care to elaborate why is that so?

 

[IronMac]

care to elaborate why is that so?

Has anyone ever made an equity investment based on whether or not the stock's home currency is a reserve currency?

 

[newjersey]

Has anyone ever made an equity investment based on whether or not the stock's home currency is a reserve currency?

need Shiny Things to chip in on this...

share your thoughts please, ST, if u are reading this!