2020 market expectations and positioning

[peipei1]

STI below 3000!
Is this the real bear market?
10 year cycle! It is a self fulfilling prophecy that was inputted to the AI algo trading.

 

[netzach]

Quite Shiong.... fug man... it’s looking bad

STI below 3000!
Is this the real bear market?
10 year cycle! It is a self fulfilling prophecy that was inputted to the AI algo trading.

गगनरोमन्थ HardwareZone Forums app

 

[Gametaku]

Today gonna be another 900-1000 drop.

 

[NewInvestor]

I hope more than 1,000 points drop tonight

 

[ocs_woodlands]

I hope more than 1,000 points drop tonight

What's your position? You waiting to long or shorting?

 

[Hello_Kitty]

I hope more than 1,000 points drop tonight

i hope it drop too!!!

 

[hindsight]

Can't say that I'm surprised by this selloff, the level of speculation seen in the US market probably wasn't too far off from what we saw during the dot com bubble, the froth was just getting ridiculous, COVID19 was just an excuse to take some money off the table.

SPX is only down a couple of % YTD so there is nothing interesting there, what is more interesting to me is the yield on the 10 year UST, it looks like the market is betting on it going to zero. I think foreign investors (who I suspect have been buying dollar assets unhedged so far) are going to flee dollar assets if that happens, don't see how the federal govt is going to be able to finance its trillion dollar deficits if US treasuries yield nothing. The fed will probably end up monetizing debt and that is going to crush the dollar.

 

[peipei1]

Anyone heard of the 50 cent vix trader?
They got their timings spot on once again

Feb 12 (Reuters) - Options positions reminiscent of the mystery trader known as "50 Cent" are building up ahead of the "Super Tuesday" U.S. primary elections and other potentially market-moving events.

At least one investor bought a block of 100,000 calls on the CBOE Volatility Index at a price of 49 cents each on Wednesday morning. The calls would rise in value if increased volatility pushed the VIX up from its present levels.

 

[gamerx]

Retail reits will be the first to get hit. Have u walked into the malls of late? Foot traffic has fallen alot and the retailers may just fold up if this persist.
DPU will drop. There is a shift in fundamentals and so if the REIT does not have adequate balance sheet, they may fold.

Not sure about the foot traffic, but that's not the point.

REITs are somewhat protected by their lease agreements with the tenants. Tenants have to continue renting unless it's more economical to terminate their lease early and pay a penalty. In some extreme cases, this happens and DPUs can be affected.

However, is the current issue that extreme? That remains to be seen...

 

[NewInvestor]

What's your position? You waiting to long or shorting?

For US equities, 30% stocks and 70% cash. Waiting to long. Can hold for 10 years.

 

[gamerx]

Got the same feeling from the neighbourhood malls I went to. Probably 70% back to normal in terms of traffic. Much better than than two weeks ago.

But the number of (Chinese) tourists have dropped to a trickle so the orchard road guys may have it really bad. And hotels and airlines. Basically anything tourists buy.

Yah, heartland malls may be shabby looking but these properties have apparently held up better than prime malls in shopping district in recent years. Not just a recent thing.

 

[gnoes85]

lets post our predictions for Dow 6/3 closing....

I say -800....

Next week 9/3 closing -1500

Can guess the lowest it will reach? 14k

 

[DukeCS33]

Not sure about the foot traffic, but that's not the point.

REITs are somewhat protected by their lease agreements with the tenants. Tenants have to continue renting unless it's more economical to terminate their lease early and pay a penalty. In some extreme cases, this happens and DPUs can be affected.

However, is the current issue that extreme? That remains to be seen...

Well it remains to be seen - this virus spread has the potential to cause a recession but that aside, REITs would not stand unscathed when the whole market melts down. I would still think that they will be sold off and given the froth in that space, they will fall hard... whether we have rate cuts or otherwise. The professionals will park monies into bonds, gold, safe haven currencies. Reits are not exactly safe haven.

 

[gnoes85]

Well it remains to be seen - this virus spread has the potential to cause a recession but that aside, REITs would not stand unscathed when the whole market melts down. I would still think that they will be sold off and given the froth in that space, they will fall hard... whether we have rate cuts or otherwise. The professionals will park monies into bonds, gold, safe haven currencies. Reits are not exactly safe haven.

History shows sudden announced lower interest = start of recession. Normally will announced 2 more times, by that time will negative rate, dunno what will happen

 

[Majestic12]

Well it remains to be seen - this virus spread has the potential to cause a recession but that aside, REITs would not stand unscathed when the whole market melts down. I would still think that they will be sold off and given the froth in that space, they will fall hard... whether we have rate cuts or otherwise. The professionals will park monies into bonds, gold, safe haven currencies. Reits are not exactly safe haven.

Agreed. When institutional funds need to sell because everything else in their portfolio is in the red, REITs will not be spared, contrary to what some here think. Managing money professionally is completely different from managing a personal investing portfolio.

Capital flows trump fundamentals.

 

[Majestic12]

History shows sudden announced lower interest = start of recession. Normally will announced 2 more times, by that time will negative rate, dunno what will happen

Have a few shorts targetting 6,800 on the NASDAQ. Not sure if will get there.

 

[Trader11]

Confirm no cut in oil. Investors in Oil majors beware.....

 

[Trader11]

Blood is coming on wall street

 

[ocs_woodlands]

Can guess the lowest it will reach? 14k

tonight is gonna be bloody. easily above -1k...

where will the bottom be? well.... i think easily below 20k.... basically back to the day of Trump inauguration which is what he deserves for his report book ....... a big fat zero.

 

[yiron]

Futures recovered slightly after better than expected job data.