2020 market expectations and positioning

[DukeCS33]

VSA?

Any good books in particular to recommend for reading Up more about VSA,

I would love to learn about accumulation and distribution too.

गगनरोमन्थ HardwareZone Forums app

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taOtDENVf0g&list=WL&index=88&t=0s

There is a offer for a free book at the end of the video. They are selling a software and the sequence they use is not a magical formula... one needs to use it together with macro backdrop to make sense of price movements.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

STI

Wow STI unable to defend 3000!

SSI warriors will say do not catch falling knife instead of loading up?

 

[lightchaser]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taOtDENVf0g&list=WL&index=88&t=0s

There is a offer for a free book at the end of the video. They are selling a software and the sequence they use is not a magical formula... one needs to use it together with macro backdrop to make sense of price movements.

Thanks Duke for yr kind sharing !

 

[Majestic12]

Resumed my shorts yesterday as it appears the next leg down is here.

 

[Majestic12]

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fe5s7e/the_fed_repos_are_an_attempt_to_prop_up_the/

if this guy is right, major major crash incoming

Thanks for sharing.

 

[gamerx]

The key driver behind REITs' strong rally last year was central banks all over the world cutting interest rates. So far, the same behavior is exhibited this year so far. Given the virus, the fundamental outlook is bad for REITs with more people staying at home and calls to cut rental cost. I am watching the REIT sector with interest.

Even for retail REITs which has the shortest leases, I doubt their DPU is under any immediate threat.

It is entirely up to their discretion if they want to offer rental rebates. They are not obligated to do so

I think their fundamentals are only affected if there is significant lease expiry coming up, variable rent component, or a deep recession lasting longer than their WALE.

 

[peacefulday]

Dig out ES3 Realized P&L statement, then noticed I once bought low @2.62

18/03/2016 ES3 STI ETF SGD 2.9000
24/02/2016 ES3 STI ETF SGD 2.6400
17/02/2016 ES3 STI ETF SGD 2.6200
12/10/2015 ES3 STI ETF SGD 3.0500
09/10/2015 ES3 STI ETF SGD 3.0400

 

[applecrisp]

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fe5s7e/the_fed_repos_are_an_attempt_to_prop_up_the/

if this guy is right, major major crash incoming

i go wsb for entertainment but this is good share

 

[NewInvestor]

Even for retail REITs which has the shortest leases, I doubt their DPU is under any immediate threat.

It is entirely up to their discretion if they want to offer rental rebates. They are not obligated to do so

I think their fundamentals are only affected if there is significant lease expiry coming up, variable rent component, or a deep recession lasting longer than their WALE.

All good points. Not many people really understand REITs or the characteristics of different properties in different REITs.

 

[Trader11]

Good luck. Companies gonna cut dividend soon

 

[MrHighlander]

I queued for 2.949 !

Posted from MaMaMia HardwareZone Forums app

 

[NewInvestor]

10-year Treasury yield hits all-time low of 0.808% as coronavirus rocks markets
U.S. government debt prices rose again on Friday morning, with yields hitting record lows at the end of a wild week on Wall Street as the coronavirus continues to roil markets.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/10-...nt83percent-as-coronavirus-rocks-markets.html

 

[netzach]

Thanks. Will check it out.
Appreciate it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taOtDENVf0g&list=WL&index=88&t=0s

There is a offer for a free book at the end of the video. They are selling a software and the sequence they use is not a magical formula... one needs to use it together with macro backdrop to make sense of price movements.

गगनरोमन्थ HardwareZone Forums app

 

[Lex1989]

Dig out ES3 Realized P&L statement, then noticed I once bought low @2.62

18/03/2016 ES3 STI ETF SGD 2.9000
24/02/2016 ES3 STI ETF SGD 2.6400
17/02/2016 ES3 STI ETF SGD 2.6200
12/10/2015 ES3 STI ETF SGD 3.0500
09/10/2015 ES3 STI ETF SGD 3.0400

Average out at what price?

 

[DukeCS33]

Even for retail REITs which has the shortest leases, I doubt their DPU is under any immediate threat.

It is entirely up to their discretion if they want to offer rental rebates. They are not obligated to do so

I think their fundamentals are only affected if there is significant lease expiry coming up, variable rent component, or a deep recession lasting longer than their WALE.

Retail reits will be the first to get hit. Have u walked into the malls of late? Foot traffic has fallen alot and the retailers may just fold up if this persist.
DPU will drop. There is a shift in fundamentals and so if the REIT does not have adequate balance sheet, they may fold.

 

[weng0202]

Retail reits will be the first to get hit. Have u walked into the malls of late? Foot traffic has fallen alot and the retailers may just fold up if this persist.
DPU will drop. There is a shift in fundamentals and so if the REIT does not have adequate balance sheet, they may fold.

Not sure which mall you went to. But the ones I went all back to normal. F&B seems to be doing well again.

 

[coolhead]

knn 10yr yields dropped to 0.795%...

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[Darwinson]

knn 10yr yields dropped to 0.795%...

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

CN explain the correlation between bond yields dropping and recession


And what exactly ‘bond yield dropping’ means ? You get less returns from investing in bonds ?

 

[FrostWurm]

Not sure which mall you went to. But the ones I went all back to normal. F&B seems to be doing well again.

Got the same feeling from the neighbourhood malls I went to. Probably 70% back to normal in terms of traffic. Much better than than two weeks ago.

But the number of (Chinese) tourists have dropped to a trickle so the orchard road guys may have it really bad. And hotels and airlines. Basically anything tourists buy.

 

[ocs_woodlands]

10-year Treasury yield hits all-time low of 0.808% as coronavirus rocks markets
U.S. government debt prices rose again on Friday morning, with yields hitting record lows at the end of a wild week on Wall Street as the coronavirus continues to roil markets.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/10-...nt83percent-as-coronavirus-rocks-markets.html

It's now 0.769%..... every day record low.

Historically crashes on dow are always signalled by precipitously low Treasury yields..... I am waiting for capitulation.....