2020 market expectations and positioning

[coolhead]

CN explain the correlation between bond yields dropping and recession


And what exactly *********bond yield dropping********* means ? You get less returns from investing in bonds ?

nothing to do with recession imo, it's more of the market sentiment about risk. Govt bonds are considered safe investments whereas stock market are considered higher risk investments.
No matter how much you pay for a bond, you will get that same interest amount that the govt issues to you. When someone wants to buy that bond from you and are willing to offer a higher price, the ownership of the bond is transferred to them but they still get the same interest from govt. Because of higher price paid but same interest, they earn a lower yield.

Since bond yields are being depressed, it indicates that some entity is willing to pay higher and higher prices for that govt bond and is an indication that the appetite for higher risk investments such as stocks are decreasing, which typically translates to lesser buying volume for stocks and consequently a drop in stock market.

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[weng0202]

Got the same feeling from the neighbourhood malls I went to. Probably 70% back to normal in terms of traffic. Much better than than two weeks ago.

But the number of (Chinese) tourists have dropped to a trickle so the orchard road guys may have it really bad. And hotels and airlines. Basically anything tourists buy.

Yeah I think hospitality REITs definitely will be hit but I think retail and office REITs should be fine.

 

[DukeCS33]

Yeah I think hospitality REITs definitely will be hit but I think retail and office REITs should be fine.

Hospitality would be hit due to drop in tourist. Maybe I stand corrected. I have stopped going to malls for 2 weeks already.

 

[arcan3]

Yeah I think hospitality REITs definitely will be hit but I think retail and office REITs should be fine.

but with all the pay freeze and cut going on, consumer are going to cut spending. Eventually, this is going to hit the retailer in the mall. As a result, the stall inside might closed down and those malls will have more and more vacant units. This will affect DPU negatively. Definitely negative for retail reit also. But this will take time to show

 

[Trader11]

The destiny, livelihood and survival of many people and companies in Oil industry will be determined by today's OPEC+ meeting. Will Russia play punk today and create an Oil crisis? Remember many companies in STI are gonna be affected by oil prices.....

 

[weng0202]

but with all the pay freeze and cut going on, consumer are going to cut spending. Eventually, this is going to hit the retailer in the mall. As a result, the stall inside might closed down and those malls will have more and more vacant units. This will affect DPU negatively. Definitely negative for retail reit also. But this will take time to show

It may happen if it drags for longer than a year. But f&b seems to be doing okay. Still need to queue when going to restaurants during dinner time.

 

[weng0202]

The destiny, livelihood and survival of many people and companies in Oil industry will be determined by today's OPEC+ meeting. Will Russia play punk today and create an Oil crisis? Remember many companies in STI are gonna be affected by oil prices.....

Oil related companies have been in dire state for a number of years already. Won't be surprised if more go under water.

 

[d9_lives]

With so many countries banning travellers from China.
What and how the people in China spend their money?

 

[FrostWurm]

With so many countries banning travellers from China.
What and how the people in China spend their money?

You don't spend money when you are at risk of losing your job

 

[Trader11]

Oil related companies have been in dire state for a number of years already. Won't be surprised if more go under water.

It will be an annihilation....

 

[coolhead]

wtf?!?!!?!? 10yr yield dropped below 0.7%....

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[d9_lives]

You don't spend money when you are at risk of losing your job

You might have underestimated their saving rate.

 

[netzach]

Where to check the yield ah?
What app you use?
Cnbc or Bloomberg?

Edit: Found it already. Cnbc app -> markets -> bonds

wtf?!?!!?!? 10yr yield dropped below 0.7%....

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[coolhead]

Where to check the yield ah?
What app you use?
Cnbc or Bloomberg?


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i check from cnbc.. it has since recovered to 0.74%.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y


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[netzach]

Swee. Thanks for the very prompt reply.
Appreciate it.

i check from cnbc.. it has since recovered to 0.74%.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y


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[FrostWurm]

You might have underestimated their saving rate.

You might have overestimated their propensity to consume when they face the possibility of becoming unemployed.

 

[polyglob]

With so many countries banning travellers from China.
What and how the people in China spend their money?

They spend domestically. Maybe boom town for China online and physical retail businesses once people start moving about.

 

[ocs_woodlands]

lets post our predictions for Dow 6/3 closing....

I say -800....

Next week 9/3 closing -1500

 

[theMKR]

Haiz, i go short it bull, i go bull it bear...

Really is going bust

My spy277 got chance? Its my last chance liao

 

[Mecisteus]

I'm looking forward to add at 17-19% below the peak.