2021 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[highsulphur]

I think he has a plan..... and a watchlist of good stocks/ETFs..... A good plan maybe...... a holy grail plan he follow very strictly....

Just that the entry never or have yet get triggered...

Should at least stay partially vested then

 

[highsulphur]

I had substantial cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for a pullback the entire 2018 to 2020. Then the pandemic hit and I asked told myself it's once a lifetime opportunity to get in and so I set out to deploy that cash. Came out with a plan to buy almost every week for the entire year thinking the pandemic will last at least a year. Unfortunately the pullback only lasted less than 3 months but I persisted with my plan and continued to buy all the way. Why? Because I only ask myself one question

Will global equities be higher or lower than now 10 years later when I hope to retire? If higher, then just buy now than later right?

 

[MrHighlander]

I am partially vested

Should at least stay partially vested then

 

[OnePunchMan]

The plan must still have a realistic target price. If the target price is one that is never reached, then its not much of a plan.....

My target levels for STI and FTSE are frequently reached, STI less than 3,000, FTSE100 less than 6,500. So that presents buying opportunities to buy up my passive income portfolio. If I set my target price for STI at 2,000 level, I might end up on retirement with mostly cash rather than an investment portfolio that generates passive income.




I thought 2009 was a once in a lifetime opportunity, but once in a lifetime opportunities seem to repeat every 10-11 years

so.. 8th in a lifetime opportunities?


I have a feeling the cycle is getting tighter, because of information speed and human greed.

 

[limster]

I think he has a plan..... and a watchlist of good stocks/ETFs..... A good plan maybe...... a holy grail plan he follow very strictly....

Just that the entry never or have yet get triggered...

The plan must still have a realistic target price. If the target price is one that is never reached, then its not much of a plan.....

My target levels for STI and FTSE are frequently reached, but they still give me capital gain if I buy at those levels: STI less than 3,000, FTSE100 less than 6,500.

Frequent 'hits' on my target price presents buying opportunities to build up my passive income portfolio. If I set my target price for STI at 2,000 level, I might end up on retirement with mostly cash rather than an investment portfolio that generates passive income.

I had substantial cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for a pullback the entire 2018 to 2020. Then the pandemic hit and I asked told myself it's once a lifetime opportunity to get in and so I set out to deploy that cash.

I thought 2009 was a once in a lifetime opportunity, but once in a lifetime opportunities seem to repeat every 10-11 years

 

[Newbyib]

In the past, a GME level event that leads to a major broker potentially going bankrupt would have lasted 2 to 3 weeks. The uncertainty would have bred fear which would have led to longer and wilder swings in the market.

Now, thanks to detailed micro order flow data, the whole event is complete in under 3 days with the market rebounding to where it was before. Robinhood survived and were able to literally raise billions in days by showing their backers their data.

My hypothesis is that what we are seeing is not irrational buy the dip millennials buying the dip. Rather I see this as a quantum jump in market efficiency brought about by advances in trading technology. These increases have compressed the duration of corrections. In so doing, it has reduced uncertainty and dampened the magnitude of corrections.

I would think that the timeline in this case is because the quick folding of the short squeeze and that if the GME price marches on upwards, it would take a longer time and a longer duration. But I would agree that monetary policy response is getting faster compared to previously, shortening the cycle and that should cause a “structural break” in the data.

Supporting this hypothesis is the way in which the market reacts to economic releases like non farm payrolls. Previously you had moves which would last the whole session. These days the move in response to an unexpected number is over in less than 15 minutes. So much so that it is now no longer viable to trade economic news releases.

[/Quote]
Interesting but for equity my impression is that nonfarm payrolls does not have a significant influence in positioning? I typically ignore this in data point.

 

[revhappy]

The plan must still have a realistic target price. If the target price is one that is never reached, then its not much of a plan.....

My target levels for STI and FTSE are frequently reached, but they still give me capital gain if I buy at those levels: STI less than 3,000, FTSE100 less than 6,500.

Frequent 'hits' on my target price presents buying opportunities to build up my passive income portfolio. If I set my target price for STI at 2,000 level, I might end up on retirement with mostly cash rather than an investment portfolio that generates passive income.




I thought 2009 was a once in a lifetime opportunity, but once in a lifetime opportunities seem to repeat every 10-11 years

I think we give too much importance to this once in a lifetime opportunities. I mean it is impossible to time it, get out fully just before crash and then get it exactly at bottom.

Also if you calculate, these falls are like 30-40%. But every year market goes up 10%. So staying out 10 years already means we lost 100% waiting for 30% dip.

So I think who ever designed asset allocation and rebalancing did Gods job. It is so simple and yet the most effective. But we think we are too smart to do simple things and want to do more complex things, in the end we lose money

 

[5408854088]

 

[RedsYWNA]

I think he has a plan..... and a watchlist of good stocks/ETFs..... A good plan maybe...... a holy grail plan he follow very strictly....

Just that the entry never or have yet get triggered...

I have a different plan that I think can work for people who are more conservative. Do mthly DCA into selected counters that you like, and at the same time, set a significant lump sum - limit price for those same counters.

Of course, this method means that substantial cash will be sitting on the sidelines but that's better than no/little cash being deployed during the major upswings.

That's what I do for my major portfolio which consists of a few ETFs and carefully selected counters.

 

[aurvandil]

Interesting but for equity my impression is that nonfarm payrolls does not have a significant influence in positioning? I typically ignore this in data point.

It used to be a huge mover before 2010. As did jobless claims. This was before HFT and algo trading took off.

 

[MrHighlander]

Hmm I might load some IMEU

The plan must still have a realistic target price. If the target price is one that is never reached, then its not much of a plan.....

My target levels for STI and FTSE are frequently reached, but they still give me capital gain if I buy at those levels: STI less than 3,000, FTSE100 less than 6,500.

Frequent 'hits' on my target price presents buying opportunities to build up my passive income portfolio. If I set my target price for STI at 2,000 level, I might end up on retirement with mostly cash rather than an investment portfolio that generates passive income.




I thought 2009 was a once in a lifetime opportunity, but once in a lifetime opportunities seem to repeat every 10-11 years

 

[RedsYWNA]

It used to be a huge mover before 2010. As did jobless claims. This was before HFT and algo trading took off.

For overall market, I think only the Fed meeting seems to matter these days.

 

[TiedInsurer]

Bullish on PLTR. Methinks it's underpriced now because people are overcompensating for the coming lockup release date (think it's 19th Feb)? Hope i'm right...

 

[MrHighlander]

IMEU has terrible volume - not great

 

[candy crush]

Tesla oso good today is green

 

[MrHighlander]

Payrolls blow out
Oh no

 

[5408854088]

25 Top Performing ETFs In January

https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/25-top-performing-etfs-january

 

[MrHighlander]

It’s turning

Tonight is red

 

[candy crush]

Tonight is quite green

 

[MrHighlander]

Really ? Hm