2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

revhappy

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I always envy those long term profitable traders.
Why only traders? There are accomplished people in every field we could envy. Trading for some reason beginners think it is very easy to become rich quick. But it is as difficult a field as any other. So no need to envy. They are skilled at it. We are all skilled at something, hopefully.
 

DevilPlate

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Why only traders? There are accomplished people in every field we could envy. Trading for some reason beginners think it is very easy to become rich quick. But it is as difficult a field as any other. So no need to envy. They are skilled at it. We are all skilled at something, hopefully.
Hmm.....strange reaction.

I didn't say I only envy traders....

So funny shall delete my post then whahaha
 

revhappy

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Hmm.....strange reaction.

I didn't say I only envy traders....

So funny shall delete my post then whahaha
My point is successful investors/traders are as rare as neuro surgeons. If they became successful it is because of lot is skill, either they are born with it or lots of hard work+skill. Not everyone can do and it is okay to be an average investor. There are many ways to make it. Some people will make it using high salary income some people using trading income or some just work in their own business and do well.
 

DevilPlate

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My point is successful investors/traders are as rare as neuro surgeons. If they became successful it is because of lot is skill, either they are born with it or lots of hard work+skill. Not everyone can do and it is okay to be an average investor. There are many ways to make it. Some people will make it using high salary income some people using trading income or some just work in their own business and do well.
I believe it is a lot easier to be successful investor than a trader.

And since we are participating in "Money Mind", my post directed towards this field.

sidenote: Envy those born in diamond spoon as well :ROFLMAO:
 

limster

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I believe it is a lot easier to be successful investor than a trader.

And since we are participating in "Money Mind", my post directed towards this field.

sidenote: Envy those born in diamond spoon as well :ROFLMAO:


Indeed, a 2018 study that found people driven by envy are more likely to experience poorer mental health and well-being. The rise of social media has also been criticized for feeding into people’s feelings of envy and materialism — by constantly offering windows into the lives of people who either have, or appear to have, particularly luxurious lives.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/10/bil...iven-by-envy-not-greed.html?&qsearchterm=envy
like the article says, social media and internet is bad for your mental well-being. It might even be bad for your investment portfolio - eg: those who see all those youtubers pushing crypto and FOMO Luna etc...

But there is a lot of survivorship bias - so on social media you see all the winners but not the losers - once they lose money, they shut down their channel - there was one local youtuber who deleted his channel after losing money in TerraLuna, and one local blog that stopped posting after losing money in TerraLuna
 
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edwardZ

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My point is successful investors/traders are as rare as neuro surgeons. If they became successful it is because of lot is skill, either they are born with it or lots of hard work+skill. Not everyone can do and it is okay to be an average investor. There are many ways to make it. Some people will make it using high salary income some people using trading income or some just work in their own business and do well.

one thing i observed/read from my decade of active investing/trading that to be successful in trading, we need to unlearn the trait of being efficient. From young, in school and values taught to us etc, we are accustomed to do things fast and efficiently. We are bred to be impatient and emotional. The big boys and their team of traders exploit this flaw in retail traders. They test your patience and emotions by ranging the price for an ungodly amount of time to infuriate you. The attributes needed to succeed in corporate job or entrepreneur is like opposite for an investor/trader :unsure:
 

boroangel

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one thing i observed/read from my decade of active investing/trading that to be successful in trading, we need to unlearn the trait of being efficient. From young, in school and values taught to us etc, we are accustomed to do things fast and efficiently. We are bred to be impatient and emotional. The big boys and their team of traders exploit this flaw in retail traders. They test your patience and emotions by ranging the price for an ungodly amount of time to infuriate you. The attributes needed to succeed in corporate job or entrepreneur is like opposite for an investor/trader :unsure:
This part I really agree.

He / she who controls emotions and overcomes greed, FOMO, fear, patience etc should do better in investing and trading.
 

revhappy

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Yes, well put both of you. It is psychologically easy to buy a stock at 52 week low, thinking it is cheap than buy a stock at 52 week high. Ben Carlson and Michael Batnick spoke about it in one of their podcasts Animal spirits. I started liking this podcast a lot now.

This is the latest one:

 

churnmaster

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option sellers work with peanut premiums. they don't call us picking pennies in front of steam rollers for nothing. :ROFLMAO:

if big money is what you are after, then should take directional option bets. but if consistent income is what you are gunning for, then better stick with camping the short put at the expected move. I am not a big fan of CSP cos they are capital inefficient. If you have access to spreads, better to add a long leg to curb collateral requirement.

depending on your competence level, there are actually additional trades you can take to boost the peanut premiums safely & align it to your outlook - short term bearish and long term neutral.
- put ratio
- put broken wing
- Iron condor
- long put condor

but if you have not traded any of the above, best just to stick with CSP.
If an investor is aiming for a ROI of 8% pa and risk free rates are 4% pa, then for such an investor with 50/50 allocation the other 50% has to earn around 12% pa (or avg 1% per month).

Unfortunately majority of investors don’t realize that and end up taking unwanted risk.
 

elvintay07

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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/10/bil...iven-by-envy-not-greed.html?&qsearchterm=envy
like the article says, social media and internet is bad for your mental well-being. It might even be bad for your investment portfolio - eg: those who see all those youtubers pushing crypto and FOMO Luna etc...

But there is a lot of survivorship bias - so on social media you see all the winners but not the losers - once they lose money, they shut down their channel - there was one local youtuber who deleted his channel after losing money in TerraLuna, and one local blog that stopped posting after losing money in TerraLuna
Is it? I thought many YouTube popping up and machiam talk show more and more. Keep hearing webull/ tiger and the crypto BS. They talk about skin in the game but in the end, always manage to siam with minimal losses. Those who follow hong gan in the end….
 

revhappy

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Among retail investors, there seems to be the sentiment that inflation is an out of control train. Their narrative is that the FED will helplessly raise rates again and again. This will have no effect and inflation will keep going higher and higher. At some point, this will be too much for the "over priced" US mkt to bear and there will be a huge crash. They have set aside a war chest and are waiting with keen anticipation to take advantage of this crash.
Wow, you wrote this in Dec 2021 and this is exactly how it played out!😯
 

aurvandil

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Wow, you wrote this in Dec 2021 and this is exactly how it played out!😯

The first part was kind of what happened. The 2nd not so much,

The market has not behaved like the typical bear market. Other than the the initial move down from 4800, those who went short after 1Q22 lost as much $ as those who went long from the numerous face ripper rallies.

We are entering the last days of 2022. Market is down by a relatively modest amount as measured by the S&P. This is considering all the crazy stuff which happened in 2022 (e.g. war,oil shock, interest rates rising a massive 400 bps). If you had a crystal ball and could see what 2022 was going to be like in 2021, you would likely have expected the market to be much lower than where it is now.

There is no reason to believe 2023 will be any different and that somehow things will magically revert to what they were in 2021. My expectation is for more two way action where bulls and bears both take turns to get whacked.
 
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MrHighlander

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There is a pattern of Chinese shares keep rising and tanking

tiday for no reason dropped significantly

quite sian
 

slowmover

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Why only traders? There are accomplished people in every field we could envy. Trading for some reason beginners think it is very easy to become rich quick. But it is as difficult a field as any other. So no need to envy. They are skilled at it. We are all skilled at something, hopefully.
20/21 tutorial mode finish liao. 22/23 start is normal going to hard mode. Haven't reach the boss stage many ganna wiped out already.
 

aurvandil

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There is a pattern of Chinese shares keep rising and tanking

tiday for no reason dropped significantly

quite sian

China's ending of the zero Covid policy is going to be fiercely resisted by local officials who have invested heavily in testing centers and quarantine camps.
 

zeroX26

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There is a pattern of Chinese shares keep rising and tanking

tiday for no reason dropped significantly

quite sian
Its not no reason. You look over the weekend the number of articles that emerged on how China cities are not prepared for such a sudden reopening and that the number of covid cases are silently increasing while medical supplies are rapidly decreasing. The China market has moved on from the initial euphoria from reopening and now trying to absorb the reality of businesses and industries being disrupted from the high covid cases.
 
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