2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[zzTiny]

Patience is a virtue.

"It's not because we're smart. It's because we're sane," - Warren buffett

It seems difficult to know the when as I tried to be sane for this month, calling out as expensive 2 weeks ago.

Provided that the earnings are the same, I call 3950-4050 the "neutral" price. Tiny suggest try not fish the bottom (it might jolly well go even lower) once it cross 4000 but to slowly buy at a price where you can accept the profit and loss.

 

[chopra]

xirr 4% since 2019 jan


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[sohguanh]

3 more days for the month to end and Powell decides to screw up our PnL
Now all eyes on Aug CPI and jobs report. If the data is weak Powell continues to hike 50-75bps. But if it is very weak, then they may slow down hiking and that is the only hope for equity markets to bounce back.

The trend is always before the fed rate hike is formally announced stocks will be super red then on the actual day it is not so red in fact next day can go green color. Sep hike coming so stocks react already super red.

Some readers share only when they finish all rate hike will us stocks recover else it is up and down repeat

 

[platee]

New bottoms will be made between now and Sept 26, that's when Shmita ends.

 

[ctan84]

New bottoms will be made between now and Sept 26, that's when Shmita ends.

Whats the link? Sabbath yr over then what?

 

[sohguanh]

Whats the link? Sabbath yr over then what?

Sidetrack abit. Sabbath remind me of Black Sabbath songs then Ozzy Osbourne. Listen to their songs as you see the sea of red among the stocks give investor adrenalin all pumped up haha

 

[limster]

3 more days for the month to end and Powell decides to screw up our PnL
Now all eyes on Aug CPI and jobs report. If the data is weak Powell continues to hike 50-75bps. But if it is very weak, then they may slow down hiking and that is the only hope for equity markets to bounce back.

Patience is a virtue.

"It's not because we're smart. It's because we're sane," - Warren buffett

It seems difficult to know the when as I tried to be sane for this month, calling out as expensive 2 weeks ago.

Provided that the earnings are the same, I call 3950-4050 the "neutral" price. Tiny suggest try not fish the bottom (it might jolly well go even lower) once it cross 4000 but to slowly buy at a price where you can accept the profit and loss.

Yup, my PnL has taken a hit for August. On the other hand, I'm optimistic that we will make a 'higher' low and IWDA (representing MSCI World) will not go below $70.

I am looking forward to starting the coming week with IWDA below $75, as that will let me deploy some more cash.

I just noticed a couple of new blogposts in my thefinance feed which seem rather pessimistic. This is odd since this sort of up and down market movement is part and parcel of the recovery process. Patience is 100% required and maybe its always good to buy when Fear/pessimism is high!

 

[revhappy]

I had a quick look at most charts in USD terms. EWS, EWU, VEUD, EEM, 3010.HK, EWJ and EWA. All of these markets are now trading at pre-pandemic levels. Only SPY is trading at significantly higher than prepandemic level. Would be interesting to see if US outperformance continue in the face of FED hikes or not. I for one hope atleast once we get the benefit of diversification.

 

[edwardZ]

from an investing long-term perspective, where is everyone targeting to layer in?

i'll be watching if the SP500 region between 3800-4000 holds for a possible small lumpsum DCA else if **** hits the fan later this year, possible regions 3300-3400 and 2400-2600. For NAS, similar idea and structure with SP500 so 11700-12000 or lower at 7400-7800.

 

[limster]

SP500 June low is about 3,600 while the July low is about 3800.

There is some discussion on this earlier in the thread that the 3,600 level will hold. I am a little more optimistic and believe that even the 3,800 level will hold.

To me, Fed being aggressive on controlling inflation will be good for the non IT like Financials, Pharma, consumer discretionary and staples etc. Hence I am more optimistic on SP500 and less optimistic on heavily indebted tech stocks that finds it hard to raise prices.

Having said that, I am still taking a punt on Zm just to practice trading with money I am ok to lose. At least Zm doesn't have that much debt . Only downside is that Cathie Wood is doing the same thing, and some say we should do the opposite of what she does

So I guess I'm a buyer of SP500 / MSCI World maybe 2-3% down from current levels, which should be reached next week, and to continue to average downwards after that.

 

[boroangel]

Took advantage of the run up last 2 months or so to take profit on a part of my equity portfolio, left with mainly those US stocks that are red and short leveraged positions, and the 3 banks.

Went from 60% cash to 80% cash now in 2 months (managed to sell quite a bit more last Friday when Powell spoke), and parking into T-bills while waiting for a sniff of interest rates cut (which is still a long way away).

I actually think 1 year US treasury yields can reach 5%, and by then, thats like equivalent to a 7% US dividend yielding stock considering withhold tax). I see more and more and more money flowing out of stock market into treasuries. Coupled with balance sheet shrinking at the max from Sept onwards, bad time for equities in the next few quarters.

Plan to take refuge in US and SG short term T-bills and wait for a sniff on when interest rate increases will pause.

 

[revhappy]

Took advantage of the run up last 2 months or so to take profit on a part of my equity portfolio, left with mainly those US stocks that are red and short leveraged positions, and the 3 banks.

Went from 60% cash to 80% cash now in 2 months (managed to sell quite a bit more last Friday when Powell spoke), and parking into T-bills while waiting for a sniff of interest rates cut (which is still a long way away).

I actually think 1 year US treasury yields can reach 5%, and by then, thats like equivalent to a 7% US dividend yielding stock considering withhold tax). I see more and more and more money flowing out of stock market into treasuries. Coupled with balance sheet shrinking at the max from Sept onwards, bad time for equities in the next few quarters.

Plan to take refuge in US and SG short term T-bills and wait for a sniff on when interest rate increases will pause.

I think this is time to buy and not sell. Markets are already pricing in the FED hikes. There maybe another 20% downside but the upside is unlimited, over the next few years. So the real danger is that you miss the bottom and then you will wait for the markets to fall, but they keep rising.

 

[paladin]

from an investing long-term perspective, where is everyone targeting to layer in?

i'll be watching if the SP500 region between 3800-4000 holds for a possible small lumpsum DCA else if **** hits the fan later this year, possible regions 3300-3400 and 2400-2600. For NAS, similar idea and structure with SP500 so 11700-12000 or lower at 7400-7800.

SP500 may drop to 3400 but will not drop to 2600 unless US-China war breaks out. If so, it's capitulation, US president will lose election since billions of pension funds will have haircut.

 

[RedsYWNA]

I sold some puts on various big companies last week, with put prices at their lows around the S&P 3,600 levels.

If hit, I get ready my cash secured puts. If not, I makan the premiums lor......

I also think it shouldnt go drastically lower than 3,600

 

[limster]

LSE closed today
but out of hours trading is indicating SPY will drop about 1% today?
I'm looking for a 2-3% drop of SP500/ MSCI World before buying.

 

[boroangel]

I think this is time to buy and not sell. Markets are already pricing in the FED hikes. There maybe another 20% downside but the upside is unlimited, over the next few years. So the real danger is that you miss the bottom and then you will wait for the markets to fall, but they keep rising.

Let's see my friend. 20% downside is a lot. Still feel downside risks over next few quarters is extremely high, and hence am keeping my short positions.

My gut feel is that...inflation will be very sticky and even though inflation seems to stop accelerating, it wont be that easy to bring it down to 3, 4 %, much less the 2 % they are aiming for. Just a hunch, and that the world hasn't been exposed to high interests rates for almost 15 years....and we have yet to see capitulation. Still a lot of money on the side.

Don't really see anything that is undervalued to buy at the moment, oil was in that category a while ago but I have pretty much sold all of my oil stocks over last 2 months (APA, COP, OXY, FANG etc) and keeping only PSX. In fact am taking up short positions on XLE.

Gonna hide in T-bills for now and fingers crossed!!

 

[revhappy]

LSE closed today
but out of hours trading is indicating SPY will drop about 1% today?
I'm looking for a 2-3% drop of SP500/ MSCI World before buying.

I am now just allocating new monthly savings to the world ETF, as soon as my salary arrives in the 3rd week of every month. It just makes it very easy decision making for me. My current allocation is set to 57/43 and I dont want to alter it. I will just let the equities component rise with the new savings deployments.

 

[limster]

Target price for IWDA reached. Guess its good that Monday was a trading holiday, more time for prices to fall further.

Done at $74.85. Will average down at $72 and then $70. Also bought a couple of other ETFs.

 

[edwardZ]

US data ** Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings are pretty good. What recession?!

 

[MrSinkie95]

nobody buy VWRA here?