2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

lasnoblur

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dont know why so many say there is crash.

if you look long term (5 yrs), many of US tech stocks (apple, etc) are still in very much uptrend.
they are the ones who move the indexes for the past 5 years.

crash is indeed happening in chinese stocks (any sector).
 

churnmaster

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As expected post FOMC QQQ rallied to 330 level, however couldn't close above that level. Very next session it gave back all the gains and made a new 52 week low ... TSLA rallied as far as 957 and then rolled over.

Lets see if we get to see 300 on QQQ this week or next week.
 

Shion

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STI continues to weaken following break of minor support​


https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ca...ontinues-weaken-following-break-minor-support
The Straits Times lost some 65 points in three trading sessions to end at 3,291 on May 6. The largest decline of 51 points took place on May 6. This was probably part of a global sell-off as a result of fund redemption. Some market watchers blame the increased volatility in the US on ETFs. As stocks fall, these ETFs have to rebalance.

Technically, the STI has weakened over the week, falling below a support at 3,320, and its 50-day moving average, currently at 3,328. At present, the STI’s decline has been stopped by the 100-day moving average at 3,289.. Since sentiment is poor, and the chart pattern is weak, a break below this level could materialise in which event a downside of around 3,250 would be indicated. The STI's 3-month low of 3,148 was in March.

The STI’s quarterly momentum is retreating, but remains in positive territory. Directional movement indicators are turning gradually negative, suggesting some weakness for the Singapore market.

Although the Hang Seng Index lost 1,088 points week-on-week to close at 20,001 on May 6, the index attempted to stabilise and to challenge resistance at 21,220 during the week of May 3-6. Indicators remain weaker than those of the STI. In addition, the moving averages are negatively placed. Hence, the HSI’s retreat could continue. Support/ breakdown is at 19,944. A break below this level would indicate a downside objective. The HSI made a low of 18,531 in mid-March this year.

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boroangel

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As expected post FOMC QQQ rallied to 330 level, however couldn't close above that level. Very next session it gave back all the gains and made a new 52 week low ... TSLA rallied as far as 957 and then rolled over.

Lets see if we get to see 300 on QQQ this week or next week.

Just purely guessing for fun, but there might be a technical rebound towards end of day as shortists cover and take profit...and next week downtrend resumes towards QQQ 290.
 

churnmaster

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Just purely guessing for fun, but there might be a technical rebound towards end of day as shortists cover and take profit...and next week downtrend resumes towards QQQ 290.
Even I think so . . Btw, your weekend fun will bring sleepless nights for some :p
 

d5dude

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A tremendously helpful data dive. Take the valuations with a pinch of salt, but the reasoning is very sound



Risk free rate will never get to 6% regardless of what inflation is at. Gov debt loads are much much higher than they were back in the 70s, there is simply no way of servicing such high debt loads with rates at 5-6%. I think WW2 era is a better template for how things will work out, debt to gdp levels were incredibly high during and post WW2, IR was fixed at 0.375% between 1942-1947 even though inflation was going thru the roof.
 

zzTiny

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Context is important...

1973 was the start of the new monetary policy we have now. Will the world monetary policy changes again? Will fiat currency topple? I doubt so. The world pretty much hungry of USD.
 

limster

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Queued IWDA @ 75.9 ... so close 😐

The coming week, I think no problem hitting your target price.

A 2-3% drop from current levels would not be a big surprise to me- I'm planning to deploy a reasonable chunk of cash at a 3% drop... which would be about 74.60 for IWDA. Thereafter, I may buy at every 3% drop.
 
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The coming week, I think no problem hitting your target price.

A 2-3% drop from current levels would not be a big surprise to me- I'm planning to deploy a reasonable chunk of cash at a 3% drop... which would be about 74.60 for IWDA. Thereafter, I may buy at every 3% drop.
hi limster, what's your rationale for long term holding :unsure:
 

limster

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hi limster, what's your rationale for long term holding :unsure:

In the long run, stocks will always go up because economies will grow and so will earnings!

Looking at the market, IWDA currently 75.55. My target price of 74.99 should be reached this week! 📉 📉 📉
 
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