2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[zzTiny]

The market: Let's fight uncle Powpow.
Powpow: I can and will pow you.
The market: Why?

It just seems like this way to me. I feel that everything seems to be under controlled. Powpow wants a certain X.

 

[limster]

US market surprisingly green. I don't know when the market will bottom, but IWDA $72 was the target price for me to start buying some more.

Apart from IWDA and VWRD I have actually been accumulating some more Comfort Delgro and Ascott Residence Trust.

To me, Comfort Delgro being kicked out of STI and the price slide actually makes it an even better value. Looking at how Grab is still bleeding half a billion dollars in 2022 and the year is not yet over makes me think that price competition will have to ease as Grab needs to raise prices before it runs out of cash

Today ART +4.8%! Bought 8k of ART earlier... regret not buying more. Who says cannot make money with dividend stocks? As for CDG no movement... 1 gainer, 1 don't lose money, so average out... still ok

 

[direbmem]

Today ART +4.8%! Bought 8k of ART earlier... regret not buying more. Who says cannot make money with dividend stocks? As for CDG no movement... 1 gainer, 1 don't lose money, so average out... still ok

What stock or ETF is ART?

 

[limster]

What stock or ETF is ART?

Ascott Residence Trust

 

[limster]

Nasdaq is too volatile for inexperienced trader like myself. I like the calmer waters of S&P500 and FTSE World

Like I have posted in this thread, I accumulated a fair amount of ETFs including VWRD in June/Jul, especially when VWRD broke below the psychological $100 level. It bottomed out 3 times in June/Jul but the latest bounce is so big, it touched 50MA.

TA experts will say it is too early to tell- but it just shows that TA is always late to the party, by the time TA confirms, the boat sailed already

IWDA today $74.64. Has the market made a 'higher low' and are we heading back over $75 again? If IWDA goes above $75 next week, I think thats a good sign a 'higher low' has been made.

And following up from my earlier post. VWRD did not retest the Jun-Jul lows.

 

[revhappy]

I think markets are positioning for lower US Aug inflation number coming out next week. If inflation numbers indeed are lower, then we might have this rally continue and we go back to S&P 4300.

 

[revhappy]

"TIme in the market is more important than timing the market"

https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/how-the-worst-market-timer-in-history-built-a-fortune

 

[stanlawj]

I think markets are positioning for lower US Aug inflation number coming out next week. If inflation numbers indeed are lower, then we might have this rally continue and we go back to S&P 4300.

What happens to SP500 index after it reaches 4300?

 

[revhappy]

What happens to SP500 index after it reaches 4300?

I have no idea. FED is not going to back down from raising rates. They will keep the rates high until there is a recession or major fall in inflation. So, that puts a natural cap on the markets. So I think we should be in the rangebound area of S&P500 3000 - 4700 for the next couple of years. Would like to hear your views.

 

[limster]

While my new year's resolution was to buy more ETFs, I am increasingly bullish on Comfort Delgro after it was kicked out of STI.

With higher interest rates making the cost of financing higher, how much longer can Grab continue to burn cash (half billion loss so far in 2022) before they increase prices?

 

[edwardZ]

While my new year's resolution was to buy more ETFs, I am increasingly bullish on Comfort Delgro after it was kicked out of STI.

With higher interest rates making the cost of financing higher, how much longer can Grab continue to burn cash (half billion loss so far in 2022) before they increase prices?

long ago when i just started my investing journey, i used to invest in CDG heh. Been a long time since i seen its price chart and by the looks of it, this 1.35 price zone is a good lump sum DCA zone. The other 2 zones i see are 1.0x and 0.8x, not sure if price will drop there.

 

[edwardZ]

"TIme in the market is more important than timing the market"

https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/how-the-worst-market-timer-in-history-built-a-fortune

ehhh but this guy only can reap his rewards at old age haha . His total time to achieve desired ROI is quite long but the essence of the story is more important. Though i think it's possible to time the market to a certain extent with some basic price chart reading skills, as opposed to blindly entering on every dip etc.

 

[stanlawj]

I have no idea. FED is not going to back down from raising rates. They will keep the rates high until there is a recession or major fall in inflation. So, that puts a natural cap on the markets. So I think we should be in the rangebound area of S&P500 3000 - 4700 for the next couple of years. Would like to hear your views.

Sideways/rangebound as you say.

Brokers extend margin trading for US stocks. So the margin debt in US stocks will be affected by the higher interest rate, so it can never go above 4800 (last peak before the start of rate hike) but it can go much lower than 3600 as margin debt is reduced.

However, US stocks (esp. companies earning cashflow in USD) is the best ugly duckling in the world of global recession, so big money will keep rotating into the US stocks, or rotating among the undervalued sectors in US stocks.

 

[weekaykee]

While my new year's resolution was to buy more ETFs, I am increasingly bullish on Comfort Delgro after it was kicked out of STI.

With higher interest rates making the cost of financing higher, how much longer can Grab continue to burn cash (half billion loss so far in 2022) before they increase prices?

In 5- 10 years time, if driverless car/taxis become common and accepted, it will be boomtown for CDG. Imagine the profit increase, if the earnings of taxi drivers goes directly to CDG. I will take a serious look at CDG in the coming years along with the progress/ acceptance of driverless vehicles.

 

[stanlawj]

In 5- 10 years time, if driverless car/taxis become common and accepted, it will be boomtown for CDG. Imagine the profit increase, if the earnings of taxi drivers goes directly to CDG. I will take a serious look at CDG in the coming years along with the progress/ acceptance of driverless vehicles.

Your thesis is very weak. I doubt you'll be able to profit from it. It only takes 1 multi-million dollar successful lawsuit that pins the blame on CDG to put driverless taxi tech on ice for a decade. Driverless tech is more suitable for non-human cargo where 1 trip will cost hundreds to thousands of dollars along predictable traffic routes (L4 driverless), rather than trip that only brings few tens of dollars for humans. Every trip to be taken is a risky proposition.

 

[weekaykee]

Your thesis is very weak. I doubt you'll be able to profit from it. It only takes 1 multi-million dollar successful lawsuit that pins the blame on CDG to put driverless taxi tech on ice for a decade. Driverless tech is more suitable for non-human cargo.

As it is , the number of would-be taxi drivers is decreasing rapidly. Just boarded a cab back from airport yesterday, and there were non-stop messages for more taxis to head to the different terminals. In 10 years time, it would become a necessity to have driverless taxis if very few want to become taxi-drivers. The govt may end up pushing for it and may even give incentives for taxi companies to go driverless.

 

[stanlawj]

As it is , the number of would-be taxi drivers is decreasing rapidly. Just boarded a cab back from airport yesterday, and there were non-stop messages for more taxis to head to the different terminals. In 10 years time, it would become a necessity to have driverless taxis if very few want to become taxi-drivers. The govt may end up pushing for it and may even give incentives for taxi companies to go driverless.

The resultant fare increase due to limited taxi supply is much less costly than the threat of multi-million dollar lawsuits. Customers pay for the fare. CDG/service provider have to pay for the lawsuit. Furthermore, regulators have power to shut down driverless tech, regardless how good it is. Only 1 edge case that the AI did not account for is a good enough reason.

 

[limster]

the bear-case assumption is that regulators are going to be hostile to self-driving tech. I will go on the basis that they will support self-driving tech. If you think someone who spilled his hot coffee because a self-driving car suddenly braked can sue CDG for 100 million dollars you are reading too much US news. More likely that liability will be capped and paid for by insurers.

Those who are anti-AI don't realise the possibility that accident rates /number of traffic injuries may actually go down because the self-driving vehicle will never get tired, never speed and will obey all traffic laws.

I'm also betting that Singapore will be kiasu and require self-driving tech to incorporate both radar and camera technology (vs camera only AI).

 

[sohguanh]

the bear-case assumption is that regulators are going to be hostile to self-driving tech. I will go on the basis that they will support self-driving tech. If you think someone who spilled his hot coffee because a self-driving car suddenly braked can sue CDG for 100 million dollars you are reading too much US news. More likely that liability will be capped and paid for by insurers.

Those who are anti-AI don't realise the possibility that accident rates /number of traffic injuries may actually go down because the self-driving vehicle will never get tired, never speed and will obey all traffic laws.

I'm also betting that Singapore will be kiasu and require self-driving tech to incorporate both radar and camera technology (vs camera only AI).

I believe self-driving tech is good but it has to be in more "smoother" traffic. Can you imagine peak hours in KL and Jarkarta or even Bangkok using self-driving tech? I cannot imagine there are just too much congested traffic for self-driving tech to navigate safely among the traffic. Maybe before I die the self-driving tech has evolved but for now I don't see a reality.

For fairly smooth traffic like go ulu ulu places self-driving tech look much more feasible IMHO.

 

[direbmem]

Your thesis is very weak. I doubt you'll be able to profit from it. It only takes 1 multi-million dollar successful lawsuit that pins the blame on CDG to put driverless taxi tech on ice for a decade. Driverless tech is more suitable for non-human cargo where 1 trip will cost hundreds to thousands of dollars along predictable traffic routes (L4 driverless), rather than trip that only brings few tens of dollars for humans. Every trip to be taken is a risky proposition.

This technology is already already available and in use right, driverless vehicle on designated routes for mining and in ports.