China & hk stocks/ etfs

1l92041H

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I'm heavily invested in China. Everyone around me say stay out of China (time to buy if follow WB quote.)
preparing my bullets to hit hard too, really looking attractive to me

of cos need to have some cap on china allocation to limit potential losses to portfolio
 

1l92041H

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I feel Ishares A50 ETF (02823) is a great buy now at this price HKD$13.43

agreed, additionally I think any diversified hk/china etf should be ok at current prices esp if looking to hold for the next 5-10 years

so tempted to whack, scare it pops up even though price trend has been terrible
 

joenss11

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this HK index have been hopeless its been dropping since early Sept with no sign of recovery Vs china tech index.... sianz
 

churnmaster

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Beware that China is presently having a bank liquidity problem according to World Bank's compilation showing China's bank loan-to-deposit ratio is 366% and the % of deposits to GDP is only 48%, one of the lowest in the World

https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/2021/12/how-bad-is-chinas-debt-problem.html#jumpspot11
The issue with debt is one, the ability to repay and other, the intent to repay. In their case, there is no intent to repay. When someone doesn’t care about their own people’s money, they just don’t care about outsider’s money. I’ve been out of every debt fund with China exposure almost a year back. My only exposure was to the tech giants, which are great companies however crushed by the authorities in the name of regulations and common prosperity. I finally cut my exposure to these cos as well few months back at a loss and feel happy about that. Else I would have been down another 30% by now.
For many Singapore investors, their China exposure would be the biggest wealth destroyer.
 

stanlawj

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Just a warning, Bloomberg and fund manager started chattering about the China lows are in.

For goodness sake, ever thought why would they say such a thing? The only reason is they have have bought in and making a loss, so need ppl to push up the shares, then offload to them. Fund managers who are successful are keeping quiet... because they still need to accummulate shares. The only time they start hooting is when they want to sell.

Right now, only invest in what China govt needs for the country. For me it is nuclear power generation. Automotive EVs are already fully priced in (Buffett is scaling out of BYD). Semiconductors related tech is the next one but still too early by a few years. The Americans finally gave the China business ppl a big push to start innovating from 1st principles instead of buying and stealing US chip tech. China big tech are mostly focused on domestic consumers, which will only return to normal after the dynamic/zero-Covid policy ends (although I have said in other thread that PDD is standing out as the strongest).

I'm looking forward to China-made RISC-V chips for PCs & servers to compete with ARM & x86. First, China biz & research ppl need to make the tools (software and hardware) to make things, which is their greatest weakness.
 
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stanlawj

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If you still hold any China stocks/etf, wait for another round of selling to finish.


In my opinion, it is the property market that is the source of this problem, not the stock market. Too many ppl bought extra properties as investment.
 

homer123

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China reported a better than expected GDP growth today but market going down. Why?
The new team in China will go the direction of communism more towards Mao than Deng. This type of policy can only weaken China's economy steadily and allow competitors in Asia and elsewhere go ahead.

Under current policies, China economy growth has already slowed to 40yr low . They will continue along this trajectory and it is downhill from here.

Yes there are some bright spots left over from good policies of the past but all these will be gone because people behind them have been removed.

The new team of leaders will be obsessed with taking back Taiwan, anti west activities and undermining the entrepreneur class. They will waste the success of the past because of their ideology .
 

stanlawj

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The new team in China will go the direction of communism more towards Mao than Deng. This type of policy can only weaken China's economy steadily and allow competitors in Asia and elsewhere go ahead.

Under current policies, China economy growth has already slowed to 40yr low . They will continue along this trajectory and it is downhill from here.

Yes there are some bright spots left over from good policies of the past but all these will be gone because people behind them have been removed.

The new team of leaders will be obsessed with taking back Taiwan, anti west activities and undermining the entrepreneur class. They will waste the success of the past because of their ideology .
Erm... you are wrong... China is facing a demographic aging crisis.
This shift towards "Mao than Deng" in your words, is needed, but the emphasis going forward will be going to address the declining birth rate.

The gravity that pulls China market down cannot be avoided: property prices are too high and unaffordable, birth rates are plummeting, and too many CCP members have gamed the rules to earn obscene amounts of money at the expense of the country.

Policy is just responding to the existing problems. Even if Xi was not born, the markets will eventually go down due to this at a later time. Right now is going down much faster and earlier due to corrective measures starting to take place. Better take the medicine now.

Anyway, whatever happens, Xi or not, foreign investors will still cut their China holdings. The challenge for us is to identify where the profit is to be made in the future.
 
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Mephist0pheLes

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Erm... you are wrong... China is facing a demographic aging crisis.
This shift towards "Mao than Deng" in your words, is needed, but the emphasis going forward will be going to address the declining birth rate.

The gravity that pulls China market down cannot be avoided: property prices are too high and unaffordable, birth rates are plummeting, and too many CCP members have gamed the rules to earn obscene amounts of money at the expense of the country.

Policy is just responding to the existing problems. Even if Xi was not born, the markets will eventually go down due to this at a later time. Right now is going down much faster and earlier due to corrective measures starting to take place. Better take the medicine now.

Anyway, whatever happens, Xi or not, foreign investors will still cut their China holdings. The challenge for us is to identify where the profit is to be made in the future.
Urm u r wrong. The line up of the central committe broke many norms and suggested this: pursue ideology at all cost. And investors are frightened by it.

suggest those invested heavily in china to consider cutting ur loses now, bcos china policies will be much more radical in the next 5 to 10 years.
 
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