Dafug! I remember reading somewhere that this years more quota because more deregistered or something like that?
Maybe this EDMW thread?
https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/...2009-coe-quota-high-115-946-a-5911815-12.html
Got many factors lah. My humble layman analysis:
We can look at
https://coe.sgcharts.com/ for the quotas in 2009 (3rd graph).
Until March 2009 2nd bidding, quota is 1.8k.
April 2009 will have a sharp drop to 1.4k.
This is without any other factors further reducing the quota.
What factors can affect the prices -
- Ppl see december 2018 CoE price drop, will have an influx of folks who want to buy. Takes maybe 2 months to clear
- Ppl get year end bonus, will also look at buying cars
- Year end clearance sales, ppl buy car
- 2019 come, ok, still got job, ppl buy car
- Singapore Motor Show come, ppl buy car
- CNY, buy car and change new car like change clothes (ok, this one partially joking)
Everytime got influx of ppl buy car, backlog will take 2 months to clear.
So for the influx of buyers I mentioned to clear, will be March. Maybe got a small 1 or 2 bid window to get reasonable CoE before April.
After that, quota from de-registered 2009 cars will drop by quite a large number. Supply drop, price goes up. And still got backlogs from Feb and March to clear. Dealers who promised guaranteed 4 bids will LL have to bid higher to fulfil contract to customers. CoE price shoots up.
2 months after April, CoE may go down a bit coz ppl see so expensive will hold off, but it will be the post April 2019 price.
There's a chance that you buy now, dealer promised you 6-8 bids and LL pay gao gao for April CoE price.
But dealers also not stupid, they do this for a living, so they will have their means to ensure they won't lose money and have to bid high high. So car prices will rise again.
As to why I mentioned 2 months repeatedly - coz I agar-ation the number of guaranteed bids by all the different dealers, which is abt 4 bids, meaning 2 months. This is just a OMA number (number I anyhow pulled out of my ass). Depending on different factors, the cooldown lag can be up to 6 months also. Or if full fledged trade war erupts, no deal Brexit cause knock-on effects to EU and the rest of the world, China economy burst, then ppl will hold off buying and CoE drop. But by then, even CoE drop to below 10k, ppl may not want to buy either.
