Singapore banks' dividend cap may be extended, says DBS
IT is
possible for the dividend cap for Singapore banks to be extended into FY21, given the lower net interest income, relatively soft credit demand and uncertainties over asset quality, said DBS Group Research.
This comes as lower-for-longer rates are likely to weigh on net interest margins (NIMs) and recovery of return on equity (ROE), analyst Lim Rui Wen wrote in a report on Thursday night.
Short-term rates have priced in no hikes for several years as the hurdle to raise rates is now set much higher. The US Federal Reserve last month made a major policy change allowing inflation to stay above its 2 per cent target "for some time" before raising rates, which will keep borrowing rates low for much longer than in prior economic expansions.
In July, the Monetary Authority of Singapore called on the local banks to cap their total dividends per share for FY20 at 60 per cent of FY19's, so they can shore up capital amid the uncertain economic climate.
If this cap is extended beyond FY20, it will be from a prudent standpoint, taking into account the continued uncertainty from the coronavirus pandemic and uneven recovery paths across countries, regions and industries, DBS said.