Forex Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread 2019

[Mr. Wood]

INTRODUCTION TO EURODOLLARS
The Link Between Eurodollar Futures Pricing And The Forward Rate Market

Conclusions
This module demonstrates the close linkage of the FRA and Eurodollar futures market. These contracts allow a firm to replace floating interest rates with fixed interest rates or vice-versa. FRAs are customized contracts that can be obtained through investment banks. These banks hedge the risk of these products by using Eurodollar futures. In hedging the sale of a forward contract with futures, the marking to market feature of futures must be considered. As a result, the pricing of FRAs is very competitive and bid-ask spreads are very narrow as arbitrage opportunities keep prices in the two markets very closely aligned.

dun understand

 

[Mr. Wood]

MONTH LAST CHANGE PRIOR SETTLE OPEN HIGH LOW VOLUME UPDATED
JUL 2020
99.725 +0.0075 99.7175 99.7275 99.7275 99.725 245 20:38:02 CT
05 Jul 2020

AUG 2020
99.735 +0.01 99.725 99.73 99.735 99.73 113 20:39:44 CT
05 Jul 2020

lidis?

 

[Mr. Wood]

Mon Jul 6
10:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Tue Jul 7
12:30pm AUD Cash Rate
AUD RBA Rate Statement

Wed Jul 8

Thu Jul 9

Fri Jul 10
8:30pm CAD Employment Change
CAD Unemployment Rate

 

[Mr. Wood]

Mon Jul 13
11:30pm GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks in a panel discussion titled "Libor: Entering the Endgame" at a webinar cohosted by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Tue Jul 14

Wed Jul 15
10:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate
11:00pm CAD BOC Press Conference

Thu Jul 16
6:45am NZD CPI q/q
9:30am AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate
10:00am CNY GDP q/y
7:45pm EUR Main Refinancing Rate
EUR Monetary Policy Statement
8:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m

Fri Jul 17
6:00pm GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at a virtual Citizens' Panel Open Forum

 

[Mr. Wood]

Mon Jul 20

Tue Jul 21
10:30am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
8:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

Wed Jul 22

Thu Jul 23

Fri Jul 24
3:15pm EUR French Flash Services PMI
3:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR German Flash Services PMI

 

[Mr. Wood]

Why Interest Rates Matter to Forex Traders

 

[Mr. Wood]

6 Factors That Influence Exchange RatesUpdated Apr 3, 2020

Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the currency exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country's relative level of economic health.
A higher-valued currency makes a country's imports less expensive and its exports more expensive in foreign markets.
Exchange rates are relative and are expressed as a comparison of the currencies of two countries.

The exchange rate of the currency in which a portfolio holds the bulk of its investments determines that portfolio's real return. A declining exchange rate obviously decreases the purchasing power of income and capital gains derived from any returns. Moreover, the exchange rate influences other income factors such as interest rates, inflation and even capital gains from domestic securities. While exchange rates are determined by numerous complex factors that often leave even the most experienced economists flummoxed, investors should still have some understanding of how currency values and exchange rates play an important role in the rate of return on their investments.

 

[Mr. Wood]

USD Weekly Forecast – Eyes on Coronavirus Cases and Q2 Earnings
July 20, 2020 5:00 PM

Existing home sales (Jul 22, 2:00 pm GMT) expected to jump by 23.0% after 9.7% dip in May
Weekly initial jobless claims (Jul 23, 12:30 pm GMT) expected to add another 1.30M claimants this week
Markit manufacturing PMI (Jul 24, 1:45 pm GMT) to hit the expansionary zone (from 49.8 to 51.5) in July?
Markit services PMI seen improving from 47.9 to 50.4 in July
New home sales (Jul 24, 2:00 pm GMT) expected to add 700,000 sales in June

Overall dollar demand

Coronavirus cases in the U.S., stimulus and vaccine updates and reopening prospects will continue to affect demand for the safe haven dollar
Earnings reports of companies like Tesla, Twitter, Microsoft, and IBM can also influence the dollar’s intraday trends

 

[Mr. Wood]

Mon Jul 27

Tue Jul 28

Wed Jul 29
9:30am AUD CPI q/q
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
10:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m

Thu Jul 30
2:00am USD FOMC Statement
2:30am USD FOMC Press Conference
4:00pm EUR German Prelim GDP q/q
8:30pm USD Advance GDP q/q

Fri Jul 31
9:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI
8:30pm CAD GDP m/m

 

[wetdreamx]

Mon Jul 27

Tue Jul 28

Wed Jul 29
9:30am AUD CPI q/q
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
10:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m

Thu Jul 30
2:00am USD FOMC Statement
2:30am USD FOMC Press Conference
4:00pm EUR German Prelim GDP q/q
8:30pm USD Advance GDP q/q

Fri Jul 31
9:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI
8:30pm CAD GDP m/m

Been shorting EUR/USD since Monday... tio whack -$55k ...

Should I let go? Any expert? 1.1656 now... me tio gao lat since 1.1499

 

[Mr. Wood]

monthly

weekly

daily

 

[wetdreamx]

monthly

weekly

daily

Should I put my stop loss higher? Or just let it go Sir?

 

[Mr. Wood]

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for July 24, 2020
Jul 24, 2020

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1627 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend changes to down on a trade through 1.1185. This is highly unlikely today, but the EUR/USD is trading inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Bullish Scenario
Taking out 1.1627 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with the next potential upside target the September 24, 2018 main top at 1.1816.

Bearish Scenario
Taking out 1.1627 then closing under 1.1596 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

Side Notes
Potential support is the series of former tops at 1.1570, 1.1514 and 1.1496.

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: The Fed has little chances of saving the dollar
Jul 24, 2020 15:16 (+00:00)

The EUR/USD pair bullish break out seems poised to continue in the long term, and as long as the pair remains above 1.1496, the former 2020 high. The weekly chart shows that the pair rallied above the 200 SMA for the first time in over two years, as technical indicators maintain their upward slopes well into positive ground.

The daily chart shows that the pair has been on the run for six consecutive days, which increases odds for a bearish corrective movement, but by no means suggest a top has been reached. In the mentioned time-frame, the pair is over 200 pips above a bullish 20 DMA, which has widened the distance with the 100 and 200 SMA, these last converging around 1.1070. The lack of momentum of the larger moving averages is somehow worrisome, long-term speaking. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have lost bullish strength, but remain within overbought readings.

The pair has now a relevant resistance level at 1.1660, with a break above it, favouring an extension towards the 1.1730 price zone. Beyond this last, the pair has room to extend its advance to 1.1814, September 2018 monthly high.

As said, pullbacks need to hold above the 1.1500 area for bulls to retain control. The 1.1460 area has always been a tough bone to break one way of the other, which means an interim top will be confirmed it the pair falls below this last.

EUR/USD Forecast: Expected to trade in the 1.15/1.16 area on a 1- and 3-month view – Rabobank
Jul 24, 17:03 GMT

“We have revised our EUR/USD forecasts higher and now see EUR/USD trading in the 1.15/1.16 area on a 1 and 3-month view. On the anticipation that risk appetite will be reeled in in the coming months and that the USD will remain a primary safe haven, we see a dip lower towards the 1.12 area on a 6 month view.”

“EUR/USD faces a critical technical barrier – the long-term downside trendline at 1.1648. A break higher (ideally a weekly or even a monthly close above this level) would be a major bullish signal that would support the view that EUR/USD is at the beginning of reversing the downside trend from the 2008 high. The Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 1.2510 would be the next target for the bulls.”

 

[Mr. Wood]

depends on holding power and timeframe

 

[Mr. Wood]

Eurodollar Futures Quotes
Eurodollar, not to be confused with eur/usd. expert say one.

 

[wetdreamx]

depends on holding power and timeframe

Praying to God Liao...

 

[Mr. Wood]

praying to god is good for faith, but not a wise strategy.

 

[Mr. Wood]

EUR/USD approaching multi-year daily downtrend – TD Securities
Jul 27, 19:12 GMT

“EURUSD’s ascent may be reminiscent of the mid-2017 melt-up before peaking around 1.25. While some say that history doesn't repeat itself, it sure does rhyme. At that time, Euroscepticism was high ahead of the French elections. Macron's victory offered another lifeline to the EU project, however. We may now be in a similar situation. EURUSD’s lift-off comes on the heels of the EU Recovery Fund (ERF) proposal in May. Some think this puts it one step closer to a fiscal union.”

 

[Mr. Wood]

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-faces-the-next-resistance-at-11830-uob-202007280419
28 July 2020 04:19 GMT

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘strong and robust momentum suggests further EUR strength is likely but in view of the overbought conditions, EUR may not be able to maintain a toehold above 1.1750’. The subsequent strength in EUR exceeded our expectation as EUR surged to a high of 1.1781 before closing on a strong note at 1.1751 (+0.83%). From here, EUR could continue to strengthen but severely overbought conditions suggest a slower pace of gain and the next major resistance at 1.1830 could be out of reach for today (minor resistance is at 1.1800). Support is at 1.1725 followed by 1.1690.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We noted yesterday (27 Jul, spot at 1.1685) that ‘the price action clearly indicates that EUR is still strong’ and added, ‘the next level to focus on is at 1.1750 followed by 1.1830’. EUR cracked 1.1750 without much difficulty as it soared to 1.1781 before closing on a strong note at 1.1751 (+0.83%). Severely overbought shorter-term conditions suggest the positive phase that started about 1-1/2 weeks ago could be taking a breather soon. That said, only a break of 1.1630 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1540 yesterday) would indicate the current strong upward pressure has eased. Until then, EUR could continue to advance towards 1.1830. The next resistance level of note above 1.1830 is at 1.1950.”

 

[Hahahaman]