Forex Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread 2019

[MrPippen]

Is a test for u... Don't know just say don't know

 

[MrPippen]

Oh... Test..
Test test test....

FCS failed the test

 

[MrPippen]

Doesn't matter lah...
Forums is a funs , trolling places.

You're right.....kai xin jiu hao..

 

[MrPippen]

tonight GBP will rally again? or jitao plunge!?

 

[MrPippen]

NY opening soon!

 

[MrPippen]

17 min USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

 

[Mr.Canberra]

I share the same sentiments as Uncle Trump. The US dollar is too strong! It needs to come down! Fat boy Kim must return as market maker again to equalise the prataing!

Investors piled into USD for the higher interest rate differentials via carry trade.

Wow TRY and EM currencies mini rout again!

 

[MrPippen]

I share the same sentiments as Uncle Trump. The US dollar is too strong! It needs to come down! Fat boy Kim must return as market maker again to equalise the prataing!

Investors piled into USD for the higher interest rate differentials via carry trade.

Wow TRY and EM currencies mini rout again!

Gold also got destroyed!

 

[MrPippen]

XAU/USD:

L:1,290.88
H:1,312.39
-18.84 (-1.44%)

I got some longs triggered now in red No 100%.

 

[Shiny Things]

any sexperts know why the holding costs for TRY is over 600% now ?

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/instruments/usd-try

Revhappy basically had the answer: offshore TRY funding markets are getting their nuts squeezed.

The Turkish president (bloke named Erdogan) has basically blown up the economy. The Turkish lira's taking it in the pants, so Erdogan's trying to stand in the path of that particular speeding freight train by making it expensive to short the lira.

He's doing that by banning Turkish banks from lending lira to offshore banks. The offshore banks are net short and need to borrow TRY every day to fund their short position. If they can't borrow TRY from the onshore banks, they have to find an offshore bank with some leftover TRY in their accounts, and those banks that are lucky enough to be long can basically name their price to lend it out. (It's similar shenanigans to what we occasionally see in the CNH market when the PBOC wants to screw around with the shorts.)

Problem is, this has some unexpected ugly side-effects, most notably in the Turkish bond market. A lot of institutions bought TRY-denominated bonds and hedged their FX risk by shorting TRY... if they can't keep their short-TRY position open at a reasonable price, they're going to close it out and sell the bonds as well, so Turkish bonds have been pulverised as well.

Basically this is not going to work, it never works, and it will continue to never work. But it's fun to watch from the sidelines.

 

[MrPippen]

Revhappy basically had the answer: offshore TRY funding markets are getting their nuts squeezed.

The Turkish president (bloke named Erdogan) has basically blown up the economy. The Turkish lira's taking it in the pants, so Erdogan's trying to stand in the path of that particular speeding freight train by making it expensive to short the lira.

He's doing that by banning Turkish banks from lending lira to offshore banks. The offshore banks are net short and need to borrow TRY every day to fund their short position. If they can't borrow TRY from the onshore banks, they have to find an offshore bank with some leftover TRY in their accounts, and those banks that are lucky enough to be long can basically name their price to lend it out. (It's similar shenanigans to what we occasionally see in the CNH market when the PBOC wants to screw around with the shorts.)

Problem is, this has some unexpected ugly side-effects, most notably in the Turkish bond market. A lot of institutions bought TRY-denominated bonds and hedged their FX risk by shorting TRY... if they can't keep their short-TRY position open at a reasonable price, they're going to close it out and sell the bonds as well, so Turkish bonds have been pulverised as well.

Basically this is not going to work, it never works, and it will continue to never work. But it's fun to watch from the sidelines.

Wow, thanks for the write-up. Very interesting. Thank you for sharing the knowledge.

 

[Shiny Things]

You are so very correct, I do not have a 6 month trading record, I have a 5 month account started at USD5,000 that has a cash value now in excess of USD23,000

To be honest, it seems like whoever taught you how to use Saxo didn't teach you very well. They don't seem to have explained to you the difference between your "available cash" (which doesn't include the negative value of the options you're short) and your "account value" (which does), and I think that's tripping you up?

No I don't and all the traders I know don't also. Profitability of a trade is calculated only AFTER the trade is closed. You don't say your trade is profitable when it is still open...traders are highly superstitious

This is simply not true. Traders might be "superstitious", but market risk teams are relentlessly quantitative.

Positions get marked-to-market every day or every tick of the clock. If nothing else, Saxo's systems are going to shut you down if an open position starts losing too much money; that's what that "account value shield" thing is.

No trader uses Vega.

MM use Vega in their calculations and they are the only ones that do. You CANNOT trade Vega

This, also, is simply not true. Completely aside from the fact that vol swaps exist—they're literally a pure vega position! that's their entire reason for existing!—if you're trading options you have a vega position (exposure to volatility) whether you like it or not.

If you have the ability to hold options to expiration, then you can handwave your vega away (I do this on the options positions that I use as hedges for other stuff, like my "house in Australia" hedge).

But if you're, I dunno, short 100x your account value in short strangles that aren't a hedge for anything, a big move up in FX vol is going to lead to some awkward conversations with the margin clerks. Whether or not you think vega is a thing, mark-to-market losses are definitely A Thing.

 

[Shiny Things]

Wow, thanks for the write-up. Very interesting. Thank you for sharing the knowledge.

No worries mate, happy to share. If you want to learn more about this stuff, a good Twitter follow is Paul McNamara (@M_PaulMcNamara); he runs emerging markets at GAM, a big bond shop, and has ~opinions~ about Turkey.

 

[MrPippen]

I share the same sentiments as Uncle Trump. The US dollar is too strong! It needs to come down! Fat boy Kim must return as market maker again to equalise the prataing!

Investors piled into USD for the higher interest rate differentials via carry trade.

Wow TRY and EM currencies mini rout again!

USD tonight sibei strong. Smashing every other currencies. Especially gold getting rekted

 

[MrPippen]

52 min CHF SNB Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks
01:15 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
04:00 NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
05:20 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
05:45 NZD Building Consents (MoM) (Feb)

 

[Mr. Wood]

market is not rigged
almost 100pips

 

[Mr. Wood]

 

[Mr.Canberra]

market is not rigged
almost 100pips

#forexkelong
#nostoploss

 

[Mr. Wood]

non farm payroll

Mon Apr 1
8:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm USD Retail Sales m/m
10:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tue Apr 2
2:55am CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
11:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
4:30pm AUD Annual Budget Release
8:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Wed Apr 3
8:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m

ThuApr 4
7:30pm EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

Fri Apr 5
8:30pm CAD Employment Change
8:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate
8:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
8:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change
8:30pm USD Unemployment Rate

 

[blurinvestor]

Predicting Time - 1 April 2019, 8am Toyko Open (100% accuracy)

Predicting Price - 2 April 2019, 11.30am (100% prediction)

Scenario might play out if price can get to that low area and even a quick touch at the extension of low.