Forex Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread 2019

[Shiny Things]

"implied vol can only go higher from here", says Nordea

LLLOOOOLLLL NOPE

This is a) fearmongering, and b) wrong. Implied vols can stay implausibly low for an implausibly long time.

I know because I said that exact same thing about KRW and TWD vol in 2007 and I got absolutely toasted on that trade.

I started buying TWD vol in early 2007 when the 1mth vol dropped from 6 to 3... and I spent the next year hemorrhaging time decay because vol NEVER MOVED. 1mth TWD vol spent the entire year of 2007 between 3% and 4%, and everyone like me who kept buying it because "it can't possibly go lower!" did nothing but lose money.

 

[SuLiFen]

trading off Monthly chart is hard, hindsight monthly chart look good. CANBERRA the hindsight trader will said yes I bought there, yes I sold there.
BUT in order for that monthly candle to reverse a lot of whipsaw is happening at the lower time frame to whip out the top or bottom traders.

take a monthly candle that reversed from the top or bottom, then go to the daily candle at that reversing point, then go to H4. You will see all the whipsaw actions that take out any buy/sell limit/stop market orders.

If you think you are lucky to catch the reverse in H4, don't be too happy because they will whip your position in D1. Lucky at D1 they will whip you out in W1. Learn to see this chain of whipsaw actions and feel the calmness after the storm then take action.

Volume, no not low or high volume. It is volume DISCREPANCY. Example - High volume with no tick. Long queue of buyer/seller but none take a trade.High volume with big move but the next candle retrace more than 50%. In 1 candle there is a mad rush of buyer/seller, then the next candle all disappear.

 

[revhappy]

LLLOOOOLLLL NOPE

This is a) fearmongering, and b) wrong. Implied vols can stay implausibly low for an implausibly long time.

I know because I said that exact same thing about KRW and TWD vol in 2007 and I got absolutely toasted on that trade.

I started buying TWD vol in early 2007 when the 1mth vol dropped from 6 to 3... and I spent the next year hemorrhaging time decay because vol NEVER MOVED. 1mth TWD vol spent the entire year of 2007 between 3% and 4%, and everyone like me who kept buying it because "it can't possibly go lower!" did nothing but lose money.

Thanks for the perspective.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

trading off Monthly chart is hard, hindsight monthly chart look good. CANBERRA the hindsight trader will said yes I bought there, yes I sold there.

CCB lah blurinvestor aka Knight_Rider! Ownself gong ownself song!

One day never open your ** mouth surely itchy.

 

[Mr. Wood]

this week OPEC meeting! all the uncles and aunties hands must be oiled!
in other news,

Mon Dec 2
8:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m
9:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI
10:00pm EUR ECB President Lagarde due to testify before the European Parliament, in Brussels
11:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tue Dec 3
11:30am AUD Cash Rate
AUD RBA Rate Statement

Wed Dec 4
8:30am AUD GDP q/q
9:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
11:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Thu Dec 5
8:00am NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
8:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m
AUD Trade Balance

Fri Dec 6
9:30pm CAD Employment Change
CAD Unemployment Rate
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate

 

[SuLiFen]

CCB lah blurinvestor aka Knight_Rider! Ownself gong ownself song!

One day never open your ** mouth surely itchy.

Idiot stupiak you, instead of apologizing to me, you still CCB here ** there,
DLLM everywhere.
stupiak kambeilan, horse gu gu jiao so nice ah kam until your mouth so filthy, ** here CCB there

You really hopeless,

apologize lah I might teach you and others can benefit also.

got observe EURAUD, EURNZD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY or not.

halo say sorry to me lah, I might tell you how to track them like a hawk, or you prefer to sit on your unrealized loss,

still no clue how to detect bias (direction) ah, tell the world you trade forex for more than 20 years what a joke

 

[Mr. Wood]

Tue Dec 10
6:05am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks at the AusPayNet Summit

Wed Dec 11
9:30pm USD CPI m/m
USD Core CPI m/m

Thu Dec 12
3:00am USD FOMC Economic Projections
USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate
3:30am USD FOMC Press Conference
4:30pm CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
5:00pm CHF SNB Press Conference
8:45pm EUR Main Refinancing Rate
EUR Monetary Policy Statement
9:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference

Fri Dec 13
1:30am CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks about the Canadian economic outlook for 2020
9:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m

 

[edwardZ]

long time no come back here, you all STILL wacking one another

anyway this week is quite big on news and data, FOMC + UK elections + 15dec tariff decision etc etc etc

dont anyhow open big LOTS ah!

 

[Mr. Wood]

two uncles shake hands alrdy this week. nxt wk anymore prata?


Mon Dec 16
4:15pm EUR French Flash Services PMI
4:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR German Flash Services PMI
5:30pm GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI
GBP Flash Services PMI
10:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI

Tue Dec 17
12:00am GBP Bank Stress Test Results
8:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence
8:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Wed Dec 18
4:30pm EUR ECB President Lagarde deliver opening remarks at an ECB colloquium
5:30pm GBP CPI y/y
9:30pm CAD CPI m/m

Thu Dec 19
5:45am NZD GDP q/q
8:30am AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate
5:30pm GBP Retail Sales m/m
8:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
GBP Monetary Policy Summary

Fri Dec 20
5:30pm GBP Current Account
9:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

 

[edwardZ]

yall seen the price action on several usd and jpy pairs on friday?

1. trump says media fake news about trade deal -> usdjpy dumps
2. china holds conference and says trade deal is good -> usdjpy pumps
3. trump say deal is ok, working on part 2, BUT TARIFFS from before remains -> usdjpy dumps

all within a span of 3 hrs

but the best was still GbpJpy, flashing up and down each min 300pips during UK elections
think many accounts were blown that day...

 

[Mr. Wood]

yall seen the price action on several usd and jpy pairs on friday?

1. trump says media fake news about trade deal -> usdjpy dumps
2. china holds conference and says trade deal is good -> usdjpy pumps
3. trump say deal is ok, working on part 2, BUT TARIFFS from before remains -> usdjpy dumps

all within a span of 3 hrs

but the best was still GbpJpy, flashing up and down each min 300pips during UK elections
think many accounts were blown that day...

all in the hands of BB.
the 2 biggest BB are Trump and Winnie
in front show fighting, behind shake out retail traders

 

[Mr. Wood]

next week xmas pang kang!

 

[Mr. Wood]

anyone want to open cityindex cfd or forex accnt? maybe got promotion deposit min $500 get ntuc voucher.

no promises, but stay tune for details.

 

[Mr. Wood]

Dear Mr.Wood,

Are you breaching HWZ Rules of Advertising?

dunno. feel free to report. i hv nothing to gain or to lose.

 

[Mr. Wood]

on surface?
yes, we def won't know whether you'll gain any benefits (Referral Fees) by posting such an advert, luring new customers for cityindex?


but, on behind the scene? who knew? tio bo?

u see any referral link?
sure go ahead and report if u like.

save dat comment to scum insurers and investing course sellers.
they are the ones who are not transparent in such deals. fkers

 

[Mr. Wood]

holiday season not much news.
luckily chairman winnie against foreign holiday still can provide liquidity
long live winnie the xi!

 

[Mr. Wood]

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

2020 FOMC Meetings tentative dates
January 28-29
March 17-18*
April 28-29
June 9-10*
July 28-29
September 15-16*
November 4-5
December 15-16*
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections.

 

[Mr. Wood]

5 Jan 2020 sunday 12pm to abt 4pm.
ntuc centre level 7
account opening
https://goo.gl/maps/K9XePDPjjRqcgCWo8

look for the cityindex booth. speak to no one else. remember to tell the brokers u are not dr tee students. otherwise the scum dr tee earn the referral fee.

 

[Hahahaman]

木先生, 苏丽芬, 交易员壹壹还有那个"含马懒"。新年快乐。

壹典散气?

 

[Mr. Wood]

enjoy the calm before the storm?

NFP! NFP! NFP!


Mon Jan 6

Tue Jan 7
11:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Wed Jan 8
8:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m
9:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Thu Jan 9
8:30am AUD Trade Balance

Fri Jan 10
3:00am CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
8:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m
9:30pm CAD Employment Change
CAD Unemployment Rate
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate