Forex Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread 2019

[Mr. Wood]

looking at 1.22 for short signals



EP 1.2130 got triggered.
yah saw yr trades. all whole lots one
i think eur will stay range for a while.

cut loss

 

[Mr. Wood]

Bank of England: Cautiously optimistic with negative rates still on the table
February 3, 2021 7:41 AM

GBP/USD technical analysis

Following another retest of the multi year top for GBP/USD of 1.3750 the price has rebounded lower. It has fallen below its 50 sma on the 4 hour chart and is currently being contained by the 100 sma at 1.3665.

The pair remains within the familiar 150 pip range for a second straight week after repeated failures to convincingly break above 1.37 resistance zone suggestion weakness in the price at this level.

The 4 hour chart is starting to paint a bearish picture, supported by a depressed RSI. However, the weekly chart supports a bullish set up and the monthly chart fading bullish momentum amid overbought conditions. With a mixed picture GBP/USD could remain directionless for now.

Immediate support can be seen at 1.3660 100 sma prior to 1.3605 low 26th January. A break through here could see more bears jump in.
Should 1.3660 hold, resistance at 50 sma at 1.3695 comes into play before the bulls look for another attempt on 1.3750.

 

[Mr. Wood]

Stock indices are screaming. But why?: S&P 500, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, Copper
February 3, 2021 2:24 AM

EUR/USD

Yesterday we wrote about 1.2050 was a key level to watch in EUR/USD. With stocks moving higher, one may have expected that level to hold. However, the 240-minute chart shows that once that level was broken, the move lower continued. 1.2011 is the next support level, just in front of 1.2000. Resistance is now at the 1.2050 level!

Copper

China reported worse than expected Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing data over the weekend. Traders may have concern on demand for copper, and therefore, one would expect a lower price. After reached 3.7328 on January 6th, which an extremely divergent RSI, one may expect prices to pull back a bit. The price of copper pulled back to the 200 Day Moving average near 3.5482. However, today copper is threatening to close below the key moving average, as well as, take out support at 3.4873. Copper is down 0.5% today.

How sustainable is this move in stock indices? Could this just be a move back to levels prior to the short squeeze scare? (GME and SLV are getting crushed today) Or is this possibly just a move to buy stocks ahead of “potential” good earnings from AMZN and GOOG? Maybe! (Remember TSLA was a huge miss last week.) Is it because of the $1,9 trillion stimulus Joe Biden offered weeks ago? Or is it just continued “money that needs to be put to work at the beginning of the month”. It could be any or all these reasons. However, one could expect that something has to give. Either stocks should begin to move lower or EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Copper should begin to move higher.

 

[Mr. Wood]

The complete guide to non-farm payrolls (NFP)
February 3, 2021

How do US non-farm payrolls impact forex markets
The monthly non-farm payroll report has a substantial impact on forex markets because it’s used by traders as a leading indicator of economic growth, alongside inflation, gross domestic product (GDP) and the monthly payroll report.

If the NFP shows a healthy US economy – with high employment, job growth and wage increases – it’s likely to attract investment from around the world. This could drive up the price of the US dollar and impact major currency pairs.

However, if the NFP shows an unhealthy US economy – with high unemployment, low job growth and wage stagnation – then investment rates will fall. This would likely cause the US dollar to fall in comparison to other currencies.

Keep an eye on pairs such as GBP/USD, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, as well as the US dollar index.

How do US non-farm payrolls impact other markets
Non-farm payrolls reports look at the impact the labour force has on the economy, which will have knock on effects for the stock market and the price of commodities – largely gold and silver.

When the NFP presents strong employment figures, this is a sign that companies across industries are doing well, which can lead to increased optimism around company stocks. However, as positive data also creates a strong dollar, this can negatively affect US indices such as Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ – which tend to have a negative correlation with a stronger dollar.

If the NFP data indicates the US economy is in a period of contraction, popular safe havens such as gold and silver may see increased investment flows.

not alwys the case, sometimes alrdy price in more expectation can move in opposite direction.

 

[Mr. Wood]

Italy seeks to bring Draghi out of retirement, but it can’t help the Euro
February 4, 2021

The EUR/USD was nearing 1.2050. It broke, and the pair is now at another important level, the psychological support level of 1.2000. However, after breaking lower out of an ascending wedge on January 6th, the pair has formed a descending wedge and is holding to lower support level at 1.2000. The more important level to watch though may be 1.1975, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the lows of November 4th, 2020 to the highs on January 7th. Bulls will be looking to buy at this level as weak stops get taken out under 1.2000. The previous support level at 1.2050 now acts as resistance. In addition, the upper downward sloping trendline from the descending wedge also crosses near that level. Bears will be looking to push lower to horizontal support near 1.1850 before completing the target level of the ascending wedge near 1.1600.

the creator of "whatever it takes" economy bazooka

 

[Mr. Wood]

Alibaba plans up to US$5b US-dollar bond issuance
FEB 03, 2021

Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and China International Capital Corporation are acting as joint bookrunners for the proposed offering.

US dis US dat, but fat water flow to US
anyway.... make USD great again!
opps i mean, unite for better USD !

 

[revhappy]

Wow! Just look at cable! What a whipsaw. I guess market participants expected -ve rates? But BOE didnt cut rates so cable up huge while Euro is falling.

I have an FX related question, but not really FX trade. If you are taking a margin loan for your stocks ETF portfolio for say 1 year and you need to be short on some currency, which currency will you prefer to be short?

Right now I have a 275k SGD worth portfolio with about 40% margin loan. i.e. About -116k SGD in margin loan. My portfolio is mainly UK FTSE 100 ETF and STI ETF. So my question is which currency would you prefer to be short for the margin loan? Initially I thought better to be short cable. But then I changed my mind and now I am short on -116k SGD worth of USD. So if USD keeps falling, I will be benefit. Would love to hear your views.

 

[Mr. Wood]

close shop! enjoy cny holiday

Monday, February 8, 2021

Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Wednesday, February 10, 2021
09:30 CNY CPI (YOY) (Jan)
21:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
23:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, February 11, 2021
01:00 GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at the Mansion House dinner
01:30 USD US federal budget
03:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York
21:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, February 12, 2021
00:00 USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
15:00 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q4)
Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec)
Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change

 

[Mr. Wood]

previous s/r coincide with 50% fib
looking for trade ideas ard 1763

 

[Mr. Wood]

Asian Open: Equities finish on a high, dollar bears return
February 8, 2021 7:06 AM

Price action on AUD/USD’s daily chart suggests correction from the 0.7820 high may be complete. The pair is clear in an established uptrend, and it has provided a gentle correction these past few weeks. The 50-day eMA is holding as support, and a wide bodied Doji (spinning top) candle formed on Tuesday to show a hesitancy to push lower, before producing two small ranging candles. More importantly, a bullish engulfing candle formed on Friday which closed at the highs (otherwise known as a bullish closing Marabuzo candle). The stochastic oscillator also generate a buy signal on Friday.

 

[Mr. Wood]

Asian open: A cautiously positive start to the week
February 9, 2021 7:24 AM

WTI extended its lead to trade higher for a sixth consecutive session. Although we to err on the side of caution for extended gains as prices now reside around the 100 and 200-month eMA’s. Currently trading at 57.96, it’s not unreasonable to assume that bulls may be tempted to offload bets as they approach the $60 level. Whilst that is no reason alone to be bearish on oil, we wouldn’t be betting the house on higher prices around current levels. Fundamentally the case points to higher prices but we suspect it may need a corrective phase (or even a period of consolidation) before it breaks above $60.

 

[Mr. Wood]

Lagarde adds to the Euro dovishness
February 9, 2021 3:10 AM

ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke earlier in front of the European Parliament and told members “Accommodative monetary policy stance remains essential!” In the charts today, EUR/USD is testing a confluence of resistance between 1.2050 and 1.2090.

Given the technical and Christine Lagarde’s dovishness, watch for bears to enter the market near current levels and look to test Fridays lows.

 

[Hahahaman]

噢嘢...

 

[Mr. Wood]

How the AUD/USD shrugged of downbeat China CPI data
February 10, 2021 12:20 PM

Technically, the break above key resistance at .7700/10 indicates the recent correction in the AUD/USD is compete at the .7563 low. Long AUD/USD positions on dips towards .7710, are favoured in anticipation of a retest of the January .7820 high, before .8000c.

 

[Mr. Wood]

Chinese Lunar New Year: This time it’s different
February 11, 2021 4:16 AM

This year will be much more subdued. Once again, all largescale celebrations have been canceled and restrictions have been put in place to significantly reduce travel. Many factories are remaining open over the holiday, with some increasing pay to incentivize people not to travel.

USD/CNH has been in an orderly down trending channel since May 2020 and put in a low on January 5th at 6.4116. Price then bounced to the top of the channel and traded sideways, moving above the top trendline of the channel January 22nd to a near-term high of 6.5150. On Wednesday, price retested the lows from January 5th and bounced. Since February 5th, price has been moving in a descending channel and bounced off the previous lows and out of the wedge. Bulls will be looking to buy pullbacks to the lows near 6.4116 and target a 100% retracement of the wedge, near 6.4878. Horizontal resistance above is at 6.4377. Above there is a confluence of resistance at the 50% retracement level from the January 27th highs to recent lows, as well as horizontal resistance, near 6.4637. First support is back at Wednesdays lows near 6.4176, then the January 5th lows near 6.4116. If price breaks lower from there, the next support level isn’t until 6.3825, which is support from June 2018.

 

[Mr. Wood]

Mon Feb 15
Holiday
United States - Presidents' Day
Canada - Family Day
China - Spring Festival

Tue Feb 16
Holiday China - Spring Festival
8:30am AUD RBA Meeting Minutes

Wed Feb 17
Holiday China - Spring Festival
3:00pm GBP CPI y/y
9:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m
CAD Core CPI m/m

Thu Feb 18
3:00am USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
8:30am AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate
9:30pm USD Building Permits (Jan)
USD Initial Jobless Claims
USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)


Fri Feb 19
3:00pm GBP Retail Sales m/m
4:15pm EUR French Flash Services PMI
4:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR German Flash Services PMI
5:30pm GBP Flash Services PMI
9:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

 

[Mr. Wood]

Week Ahead: Holidays, lockdowns, inflation and Platinum
February 13, 2021 6:26 AM

Price has been trading higher since the March 2020 pandemic lows at 565.49 in an orderly upward sloping channel. Price broke through pre-pandemic highs during the week of November 30th, 2020, near 1045.45, and hasn’t looked back. This week the price of platinum broke out of the top of the upward sloping channel and above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the highs of March 2008 to the lows of March 2020, at 1227.65. Platinum closed the week at 1253.00. Horizontal resistance is above at 1297 and then the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the highs of January 2020 to the March 2020 lows, at 1339.56. Note that after the 11.5% move higher this week, the RSI has moved into overbought territory which may indicate a price is nearing a pullback. Support is at the top trendline of the channel near 1180, then the prior resistance level at 1041.45. Below there, support is at the bottom trendline of the channel near 975.00.

 

[Mr. Wood]

previous s/r coincide with 50% fib
looking for trade ideas ard 1763

squeezeeeeeee

 

[HearTs5481]

Hi All

can i know which broker is best to use for FX trading???

thanks

 

[Mr. Wood]

So you want to trade the DXY?: EUR/USD, USD/CHF

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the value of the US Dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The current breakdown of the DXY is as follows:

EUR 54.6%
JPY 13.6%
GBP 11.9%
CAD 9.1%
SEK 5.2%
CHF 3.6%