Forex/Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread

[Mr. Wood]

only today profitable.
close positions go sleep.
nxt week fight again.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Greetings To All Punters!

Having problems logging in so did not post but was able to read.

Will be back to my trading desk by Monday. It has been a few weeks of jiak hong cum work trip. Life is good the Mr.Canberra way.

Thanks to Mr. Wood for holding the fort in my absence.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

EUR/USD

only today profitable.
close positions go sleep.
nxt week fight again.

These past few weeks almost every day take in some decent profits from scalping AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and EUR/USD. However these past few 3 days was crazy. A total of US$1380 fell from the sky!

Not only stucked position for 4 months closed with profit but have been shorting EUR/USD hor yi si on every rise!

NO STOP LOSS strategy works again because the big boys will eventually flip prata.

Enjoy the strong USD while it lasts as it will pull back in time to come. When chua sai boy learns how to shut up and stop talking rubbish I will gladly share more analysis on when the pull back will come.

End of last year most people do not believe my call that the USD will retrace losses. Now believe or not? I did not study USD for nothing for around 20 years ok!

 

[ExtremeWays]

These past few weeks almost every day take in some decent profits from scalping AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and EUR/USD. However these past few 3 days was crazy. A total of US$1380 fell from the sky!

Not only stucked position for 4 months closed with profit but have been shorting EUR/USD hor yi si on every rise!

NO STOP LOSS strategy works again because the big boys will eventually flip prata.

Enjoy the strong USD while it lasts as it will pull back in time to come. When chua sai boy learns how to shut up and stop talking rubbish I will gladly share more analysis on when the pull back will come.

End of last year most people do not believe my call that the USD will retrace losses. Now believe or not? I did not study USD for nothing for around 20 years ok!

Yes I will keep quiet and earn profit in USDJPY longs

 

[ExtremeWays]

For now, Cash is King....

 

[Mr. Wood]

Economic news
Times are in SST, but take note of daylight savings, maybe off by 1hr.

TueMay 8
10:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m

4:15pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks (Time may be wrong)

6:30pm AUD Annual Budget Release (Time may be wrong)

WedMay 9
9:30pm USD PPI m/m

11:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories

ThuMay 10
5:30pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m

8:00pm GBP BOE Inflation Report
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate

9:30pm USD CPI m/m
USD Core CPI m/m

FriMay 11
9:30pm CAD Employment Change
CAD Unemployment Rate

10:15pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 7-11, 2018)

EURUSD:

Technical Outlook: The EURUSD extended the declines for the second week as price action fell to fresh 5-month lows on an intraday basis. The EURUSD was seen testing the lows of 1.1952 before pulling back to close at 1.1962. Minor resistance is seen at 1.2000 level. We expect to see a correction in the EURUSD especially after the 4-hour Stochastic oscillator is currently posting a higher low. This bullish divergence will be validated on a close above 1.2000 in which case we expect the EURUSD to post a correction toward 1.2200 level. To the downside, the declines are likely to be limited at the current level.

Fundamental Outlook: Economic data from the Eurozone for the week ahead is quiet with only second tier data on the tap. The week starts off with the German factory orders. The data could be important for investors who would like to assess if there has been a continued decline in the economic activity in the Eurozone’s largest economy. The Eurozone retail PMI report is also due on Monday. Mid-week, the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence data will be reported and this could once again hold clues on the business outlook for the region. The main highlight of the week will of course be the European Commission’s economic forecasts and the ECB’s meeting minutes.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 7-11, 2018)

GBPUSD:

The GBPUSD bulls have managed to successfully defend the big psychological number and we posted a weekly close above the big psychological number 1.3500. The weekly close above 1.3500 doesn’t discount the possibility of another short lived dip below 1.3500 before the bulls can have another chance to take control of this market. The stochastic indicator is in an oversold condition for quite some time, and sooner rather than later it needs to reset which can provide the momentum to finally break to the upside.

The first level of interest on the upside is the former swing low 1.3712. But, on an intraday level, we can expect to encounter some kind of resistance at 1.3652. The upcoming week will also bring one of the most anticipated rate decisions coming from the BOE. The market consensus still sees another interest rate hike from 0.5% up to 0.75%. The probability that the BOE will raise rates has indeed dropped from 90% to 20% and now some Wall Street economists even predict a slash in the 2018 growth outlook which has fueled the GBP/USD bearish momentum. Nevertheless, a surprise hike will have a very strong bullish impact under this circumstance.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 7-11, 2018)

USDCHF:

Technical Outlook: The USDCHF currency pair maintained the gains last week. However, the steep rally saw the trend line being breached. Price action in the USDCHF suggested that with a downside retest of the trend line, we expect a near term decline. If the trend line holds out as resistance, then the USDCHF currency pair could be seen posting a correction toward the 0.9894 level of support. With both the major trend line and the horizontal support coinciding at 0.9894, we expect that this support level could hold in the near term. A break down below this level will however signal a move toward 0.9821.

Fundamental Outlook: Economic data from Switzerland will be limited this week only to the unemployment rate and the monthly inflation figures. Consumer prices have remained broadly stable over the past few months and it is the same with the unemployment rate as well. Data from the United States will dominate the headlines however. The monthly producer prices and consumer price index data will be coming out over the week followed by the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations and consumer sentiment reports.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 7-11, 2018)

USDJPY:

Technical Outlook: The USDJPY currency pair was seen testing fresh highs last week as price briefly rallied to highs above 109.96. However, the rally faded as price action quickly posted declines. The close below 109.14 and a prompt retest of this level indicates that the upside momentum may be slowing. In the near term, USDJPY could be seen consolidating at the currently levels. Unless we see a strong close above 109.14 and a potentially new high being formed, the USDJPY currency pair could post a corrective decline toward 107.77 – 107.63 level where support is most likely to be tested.

Fundamental Outlook: After a rather quiet week from Japan, the week ahead will starts off with the household spending data. The household spending data will give more details into the spending outlook on the consumer side. This marks an important data point that could feed into how inflation progressed in April. The average cash earnings rate is also another important economic release that could influence the inflation outlook for Japan. Most of the other economic releases include minor data points such as the current account and the preliminary machine order tools.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 7-11, 2018)

USDCAD:

The USDCAD seems trapped in a very narrow trading range between 1.2920 resistance level and support level 1.2815. We can expect first a false breakout one way or the other before some real trend development to be seen in the other direction of the breakout. However the most probable trading scenario for the time being is a further range to be seen. A break below support level 1.2815 will open up the door for a retest of the next important support 1.2745.

On the other side a break and a daily close above resistance level 1.2920 will put on the spot the big psychological number 1.3000 which can be challenged again. The stochastic indicator is in neutral territory and there are no extreme reading conditions in the market, which supports the idea of more consolidation until the market either gets oversold or overbought. The Canadian economic calendar only has one major risk event that can disrupt the market volatility. Friday the Canadian unemployment figures are scheduled to be released and a flat reading is expected by the market.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 7-11, 2018)

AUDUSD:

Despite breaking below the big psychological number 0.7500 the AUDUSD still managed to post a weekly close above it. Now previous week low 0.7470 remains key if the bulls want to have any chance. However, as long as we trade above the big round number 0.7500 on a daily closing basis, we can see at least some more ranging activity before we build up enough energy for the next big swing wave.

The stochastic indicator is near overbought territory, but we still have more room to the upside before we really get an extreme stochastic reading. Last week high 0.7580 remains the first level of resistance which can be easily broken and only a daily close above it can give us hope for a deeper retracement. The Australian economic calendar only has some moderate risk events that can be the catalysts for some volatility. Tuesday we have the Retail Sales followed by the Budget report which can give further clarity for the price.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

EUR/USD

Today raked in US$120 from last Friday's position.

Short hor yi si still in play!

 

[Mr.Canberra]

EUR/USD

Today raked in US$120 from last Friday's position.

Short hor yi si still in play!

Bears taking it down to intraday low of 1.19222 upon European open!

London market is closed today.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

EUR/USD

Bears taking it down to intraday low of 1.19222 upon European open!

London market is closed today.

Broke below 1.19!

Stops triggered. Stop loss traders bang balls!

Next support 1.1888.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Fed Interest Rates Decide World Economic Fate

Paging for Uncle Canberra. What's your view on this article? Especially the portion on exchange rate?

https://www.thebalance.com/what-was-the-asian-financial-crisis-1978997

The following 2 paragraphs below from this article say it all. Seems that history is always repeating itself and current events draw some similiarities that have occured before.

1) Bitcoin bubble burst in January 2018.
2) HKMA defended the USD/HKD peg in April 2018 but was fruitless.

In summary the hastened pace of rate hike by Federal Reserve will cause markets to correct significantly. If you read financial news the rest of the world is trying to catch up with the rate hikes (1-2 years behind) but some countries are not fundamentally sound to do so!

Just look at EU economic data (with the exception of Germany) you think Mario Bro dare to withdraw QE and hike interest rate as quickly as Fed? Greece probably will go into riots again sia hahahaha!

As I have mentioned many times before the inflection point will come when the Fed funds rate reaches 2%. Currently is 1.75% which means it is coming very soon in 13/06/2018!

Come, come, come volatility.

The Asian Financial Crisis, like many other financial crises before and after it, began with a series of asset bubbles. Growth in the region's export economies led to high levels of foreign direct investment, which in turn led to soaring real estate values, bolder corporate spending, and even large public infrastructure projects - all funded largely by heavy borrowing from banks.

Of course, ready investors and easy lending often lead to reduced investment quality and excess capacity soon began to show in these economies. The United States Federal Reserve also began to raise its interest rates around this time to counteract inflation, which led to less attractive exports (for those with currencies pegged to the dollar) and less foreign investment.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

US T-Bills auction over soon. Beware of price prata!

 

[Mr.Canberra]

US T-Bills auction over soon. Beware of price prata!

Auction is over. Now is free play and true direction till New York market close.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Mr.Canberra Forex Trading Performance 2018

____________________________________________________________
PROFIT & LOSS (REALISED) 2018

30/06/16 - 30/06/17: S$4003.67 [2016 ROI 27.61%]
31/07/17: S$1264.09 [Jul ROI 8.42%]
31/08/17: S$5806.60 [Aug ROI 35.69%]
30/09/17: S$4157.42 [Sep ROI 15.94%]
31/10/17: S$1944.68 [Oct ROI 5.85%]
30/11/17: -S$1843.27 [Nov ROI -5.24%] <-Drunk trading. One off folly.
29/12/17: S$1299.92 [Dec ROI 3.90%]
31/01/18: S$1565.13 [Jan ROI 4.52%]
28/02/18: S$1706.80 [Feb ROI 4.72%]
30/03/18: S$1325.68 [MAR ROI 3.50%]
30/04/18: S$3922.76 [APR ROI 10.00%]

LIFETIME PERFORMANCE SINCE JUN 2016 (22 MONTHS)
139.74%

STRATEGY: CARRY TRADE/NO STOP LOSS
____________________________________________________________

 

[Takodoro]

The following 2 paragraphs below from this article say it all. Seems that history is always repeating itself and current events draw some similiarities that have occured before.

1) Bitcoin bubble burst in January 2018.
2) HKMA defended the USD/HKD peg in April 2018 but was fruitless.

In summary the hastened pace of rate hike by Federal Reserve will cause markets to correct significantly. If you read financial news the rest of the world is trying to catch up with the rate hikes (1-2 years behind) but some countries are not fundamentally sound to do so!

Just look at EU economic data (with the exception of Germany) you think Mario Bro dare to withdraw QE and hike interest rate as quickly as Fed? Greece probably will go into riots again sia hahahaha!

As I have mentioned many times before the inflection point will come when the Fed funds rate reaches 2%. Currently is 1.75% which means it is coming very soon in 13/06/2018!

Come, come, come volatility.

Can explain in more laymen terms for me?

How would the market correct itself?

Per the article:

The Bottom Line
The Asian financial crisis began with a series of asset bubbles that were financed with foreign direct investment. When the Federal Reserve began to hike interest rates, foreign investment dried up and high asset valuations were difficult to sustain. Equity markets moved significantly lower and the International Monetary Fund eventually stepped in with billions of dollars worth of loans to stabilize the market. The economies eventually recovered, but many experts have been critical of the IMF for its strict policies that may have exacerbated the problems.

I presume the higher rate would result in fund flows back into US, i.e. a vicious cycle of global equity meltdown --> cash is king --> basically we should continue to long USD?

I feel that this article on AFC backdrop is really very similar to world economy situation now, especially on the part on US rate hike and property price.

1997: AFC triggered by property bust in Thailand and US rate hike
2007: GFC triggered by home loan bust in US
2017: Nothing happened
2018: Property sector showing signs of recovery, record enbloc price etc.

Basically, it seems like all major crisis are triggered by asset bubble and it can more or less be linked back to property price.

It seems like we are on a tipping point. But US policy maker are definitely not dumb as well. If I can notice this, they can definitely notice this as well.