Forex/Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread

[Mr.Canberra]

Now you all believe what I said or not about USD strength? 3 months ago buay kan chua sai boy insulted me.

I already said the market is rigged. There is up and down from time to time for USD. This is how the big boys make money.

Enjoy the ride now because when the time comes the USD will prata again.

I study Forex many years already so that is why I dare to play NO STOP LOSS. Course instructors dare or not?

 

[Mr.Canberra]

u/j 109.1

Many months never see USD/JPY at 109 level. USD long future contracts coming back.

You guys must see bigger picture for trend which is options and futures contracts.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

I see chua sai boy talking rubbish daily here I sibei buay song. His comnents are total bullsh*t. If you believe what he said then good luck to you!

 

[havetheveryfun]

Now you all believe what I said or not about USD strength? 3 months ago buay kan chua sai boy insulted me.

I already said the market is rigged. There is up and down from time to time for USD. This is how the big boys make money.

Enjoy the ride now because when the time comes the USD will prata again.

I study Forex many years already so that is why I dare to play NO STOP LOSS. Course instructors dare or not?

actually I know 1-2 person teaching forex course who also no use no stop loss. except of cos they don't teach it to their students, they only use it themselves. one thing is that they said cos their account is big so that they can tank the floating, and they are better at scalping so they can earn small money while waiting for the floating. second is of cos that u cannot over leverage, or ur account will burst before u can wait for the floating to recover. lastly is again no stop loss doesn't work for everything, but if u have enough experience in the market u will know which pair are super cyclical and will return back eventually, while some are just keep dropping or going up with no end in sight

 

[Mr. Wood]

Many months never see USD/JPY at 109 level. USD long future contracts coming back.

You guys must see bigger picture for trend which is options and futures contracts.

where to learn options and futures

 

[ExtremeWays]

It is becoming very expensive to be short U.S. dollars. For the first time since January 2014, ten-year Treasury yields rose above 3%. This move triggered widespread short covering in USD/JPY and drove the pair to its strongest level in 2 months. The U.S. dollar also traded higher against the Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar but the lack of gains versus other currencies like euro, sterling and the Australian and Canadian dollars tells us that some investors are still wary of going long dollars. There’s a difference between short covering and buying so while all of Tuesday’s U.S. economic reports beat expectations with confidence rising in April and new home sales increasing in March, there’s concern that the rise in yields poses a threat to the recovery in stocks and the economy. With that in mind, the rise in yields is driven by the rise in inflation and rate-hike expectations. At the beginning of this month, investors saw only a 79% chance of a hike in June but those odds sit at 93% today. The modest sell-off in stocks in response to the rise in yields reflects an optimistic outlook that has translated into demand for risk assets. The yen crosses look particularly attractive and could see further gains in the days ahead.

Meanwhile, the euro completely shrugged off the weaker German IFO report and the rise in Treasury yields because German bund yields rose sharply in the first part of the NY trading session. However by the London close, German rates receded, putting EUR/USD’s rally at risk. With manufacturing and service sector activity slowing, it was no surprise to see German business confidence fall in the month of April. The declines were significant with the business climate index slipping to its weakest level in nearly 8 years and the expectations component falling to its lowest level since October 2014. This will make it difficult for the European Central Bank to be optimistic when they meet on Thursday. EUR/USD found support on Tuesday at 1.22 but if U.S. yields continue to rise and Mario Draghi emphasizes the need for caution, the next stop for EUR/USD could be 1.20.

After falling for 5 consecutive trading days, sterling finally rebounded against the U.S. dollar on the back of stronger fiscal finances. For the first time since 2000, the government reported a fiscal surplus. While this report drove GBP higher against all of the major currencies, it doesn’t offset the weaker economic reports and dovish comments from the Bank of England last week. According to a separate report from the Confederation of Business Industry, business optimism turned negative in April, a trend that is probably a better reflection of the general performance of the U.K. economy.

Tuesday's worst-performing currency was the New Zealand dollar, which continued to come under heavy selling. NZD/USD has fallen 7 out of the past 8 trading days with the latest decline taking the pair to its weakest level since January 4. There were no New Zealand economic reports released but the rapidly shrinking 10-year New Zealand – U.S. yield spread along with the trigger of stops below .7150 prompted speculators to unwind their long positions. Unlike the U.S., recent data from New Zealand has been weak and investors believe the central bank will keep rates on hold throughout 2018. New Zealand inflation dropped to the bottom of the RBNZ’s target last week, which will be a key concern when they meet next month. The Canadian dollar on the other hand rebounded against the greenback following reports from Mexico’s Kalach that a NAFTA deal could be reached in the next 10 days. However shortly after these comments were made, Mexico’s economy Minister and NAFTA Chief said there are no guarantees that a deal can be reached as President Trump looks to tie Mexican immigration control to the NAFTA deal. The Australian dollar also remained under pressure following a mixed inflation report. Although CPI growth slowed more than expected to 0.4% in the first quarter, the year-over-year rate held steady at 1.9% and the trimmed mean rate accelerated. This suggests that there are small signs of rising price pressures even though the rate is below the Reserve Bank’s target band.

 

[havetheveryfun]

It is becoming very expensive to be short U.S. dollars. For the first time since January 2014, ten-year Treasury yields rose above 3%. This move triggered widespread short covering in USD/JPY and drove the pair to its strongest level in 2 months. The U.S. dollar also traded higher against the Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar but the lack of gains versus other currencies like euro, sterling and the Australian and Canadian dollars tells us that some investors are still wary of going long dollars. There’s a difference between short covering and buying so while all of Tuesday’s U.S. economic reports beat expectations with confidence rising in April and new home sales increasing in March, there’s concern that the rise in yields poses a threat to the recovery in stocks and the economy. With that in mind, the rise in yields is driven by the rise in inflation and rate-hike expectations. At the beginning of this month, investors saw only a 79% chance of a hike in June but those odds sit at 93% today. The modest sell-off in stocks in response to the rise in yields reflects an optimistic outlook that has translated into demand for risk assets. The yen crosses look particularly attractive and could see further gains in the days ahead.

Meanwhile, the euro completely shrugged off the weaker German IFO report and the rise in Treasury yields because German bund yields rose sharply in the first part of the NY trading session. However by the London close, German rates receded, putting EUR/USD’s rally at risk. With manufacturing and service sector activity slowing, it was no surprise to see German business confidence fall in the month of April. The declines were significant with the business climate index slipping to its weakest level in nearly 8 years and the expectations component falling to its lowest level since October 2014. This will make it difficult for the European Central Bank to be optimistic when they meet on Thursday. EUR/USD found support on Tuesday at 1.22 but if U.S. yields continue to rise and Mario Draghi emphasizes the need for caution, the next stop for EUR/USD could be 1.20.

After falling for 5 consecutive trading days, sterling finally rebounded against the U.S. dollar on the back of stronger fiscal finances. For the first time since 2000, the government reported a fiscal surplus. While this report drove GBP higher against all of the major currencies, it doesn’t offset the weaker economic reports and dovish comments from the Bank of England last week. According to a separate report from the Confederation of Business Industry, business optimism turned negative in April, a trend that is probably a better reflection of the general performance of the U.K. economy.

Tuesday's worst-performing currency was the New Zealand dollar, which continued to come under heavy selling. NZD/USD has fallen 7 out of the past 8 trading days with the latest decline taking the pair to its weakest level since January 4. There were no New Zealand economic reports released but the rapidly shrinking 10-year New Zealand – U.S. yield spread along with the trigger of stops below .7150 prompted speculators to unwind their long positions. Unlike the U.S., recent data from New Zealand has been weak and investors believe the central bank will keep rates on hold throughout 2018. New Zealand inflation dropped to the bottom of the RBNZ’s target last week, which will be a key concern when they meet next month. The Canadian dollar on the other hand rebounded against the greenback following reports from Mexico’s Kalach that a NAFTA deal could be reached in the next 10 days. However shortly after these comments were made, Mexico’s economy Minister and NAFTA Chief said there are no guarantees that a deal can be reached as President Trump looks to tie Mexican immigration control to the NAFTA deal. The Australian dollar also remained under pressure following a mixed inflation report. Although CPI growth slowed more than expected to 0.4% in the first quarter, the year-over-year rate held steady at 1.9% and the trimmed mean rate accelerated. This suggests that there are small signs of rising price pressures even though the rate is below the Reserve Bank’s target band.

find that all these analyst writings are out to confuse u. the more u read, the more u get confused

 

[ExtremeWays]

find that all these analyst writings are out to confuse u. the more u read, the more u get confused

Break 110 is uptrend liao

 

[Mr. Wood]

find that all these analyst writings are out to confuse u. the more u read, the more u get confused

 

[Mr. Wood]

Economic releases. All times in SST

Mon Apr 30
10:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence
Tentative AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
4:00pm CHF KOF Economic Barometer
5:00pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
9:30pm CAD RMPI m/m
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
USD Personal Spending m/m
10:45pm USD Chicago PMI

Tue May 1
1:30pm AUD RBA Rate Statement
AUD Cash Rate
5:30pm GBP Manufacturing PMI
GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
9:30pm CAD GDP m/m
11:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index

Wed May 2
3:30am CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
7:45am NZD Employment Change q/q
NZD Unemployment Rate
5:30pm GBP Construction PMI
6:00pm EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q
9:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
11:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thu May 3
3:00am USD FOMC Statement
USD Federal Funds Rate
10:30am AUD Trade Balance
AUD Building Approvals m/m
5:30pm GBP Services PMI
6:00pm EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
9:30pm CAD Trade Balance
USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
USD Unemployment Claims
11:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Fri May 4
1:00am CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
10:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
9:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate
11:00pm CAD Ivey PMI


Sat May 5
1:00am USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
4:00am USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
6:30am USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
9:00am USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 30 - May 4, 2018)

EURUSD:

Technical Outlook: The EURUSD currency pair posted strong declines last week as price fell to a three month low towards 1.2055. The sell off in the EURUSD currency pair came as the ECB maintained its monetary policy unchanged. Despite the central bank brushing aside concerns of the recent weak stretch of economic data, the currency pair fell sharply as the U.S. dollar was seen strengthening. The decline to the current lows however looks oversold with the potential for the currency pair to post a modest short term correction. If the EURUSD manages to breakout above the local highs of 1.2112, then we expect the upside momentum to push the price toward the immediate resistance level at 1.2200.

Fundamental Outlook: The economic calendar from the Eurozone is relatively quiet. Most of the data points to second tier information which includes the German retail sales report due on Monday. Flash inflation estimates for both Germany and the Eurozone will be coming out this week. The report will cover the inflation data for the month of April. The preliminary GDP report for the quarter ending March 2018 will also be coming out. The Eurozone’s GDP growth is expected to be somewhat modest during the first quarter after posting strong growth last year.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 30 - May 4, 2018)

GBPUSD:

The GBPUSD broke to the downside through several key levels and as long as we trade below the big psychological number 1.4000 we should expect the current bearish tone to drive the market more to the downside. However, in the short-term, we can still expect a pullback because the downside looks overextended. The first level of support only comes at the previous swing low 1.3712 which should hold the downside for a reaction higher. However, we can’t rule a false break below that should be quickly bought because the stochastic indicator is also in oversold territory which supports the idea of a short-term rally.

On the upside, the first level of resistance only comes at 1.3900 which should contain any rally. But, a break and a daily close above 1.3900 can open the door for a retest of the big round number 1.4000. There are only modest risk events on the UK economic calendar, however from the other side of the monetary policy spectrum; we have the Fed interest rate decision which is the highlight risk event of the week. The Fed is expected to hold rates on hold but what matters most is they start using a more aggressive hawkish language.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 30 - May 4, 2018)

USDCHF:

Technical Outlook: Price action in USDCHF powered ahead but the currency pair was seen failing to post a convincing close above the resistance zone of 0.9894 – 0.9861. In the near term, we expect to see a correction in the price action. The 4-hour Stochastic has triggered an overbought market at the current levels which coincides with the resistance zone. Therefore, we expect the USDCHF to potentially correct lower. Initial support is seen at 0.9821 level which could be tested in the short term. However, USDCHF is likely to push lower to establish support at 0.9629 which could be tested in the medium term.

Fundamental Outlook: Data from Switzerland is also looking at a quiet week ahead in terms of economic releases. However, data from the U.S. will see a busy week that could keep the USDCHF in pay. The week starts off with the U.S. core PCE price index data alongside consumer spending data. The week will also see the release of the monthly ISM manufacturing PMI data and will be later followed up by the FOMC meeting and the monthly jobs report.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 30 - May 4, 2018)

USDJPY:

Technical Outlook: The USDJPY currency pair posted strong gains on the back of a weaker Japanese yen. Price action touched a two month high at 109.14 before easing back on the day. With the current consolidation taking place near the highs, we expect to see a correction in price action in the near term. The main support level at 107.78 – 107.64 is most likely to be tested in the near term unless USDJPY manages to post a fresh high above 109.14. The 4-hour Stochastics oscillator a bit overstretched validating this view.

Fundamental Outlook: Following a busy week that concluded which saw the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting, the week ahead is quiet as far as data from Japan is concerned. The Tokyo markets are closed on Monday which makes it a short and a quiet trading week. Still, the Japanese yen may be influenced by the global themes that could reflect the overall investor sentiment in the markets. The Japanese yen will also be influenced by the FOMC meeting due this week. No changes to interest rates are expected at this week’s meeting.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 30 - May 4, 2018)

USDCAD:

The USDCAD has recovered some of the previous losses and it’s now trading back above the 200-day moving average. Currently Loonie is trading very close to our first level of support near the round number 1.2800. There is a change to break below support 1.2800 and fill in the previous week’s trading range before to try again to break higher. The next significant level of support comes at 1.2688 which is a little too far away, but we can’t rule the possibility to get a deep retracement either.

The stochastic indicator is not yet in oversold territory, so we have time and space to pullback into the previous bullish run. On the upside, the previous week high 1.2900 can provide us a good resistance level, and only a daily close above can open the door for a possible retest of the big psychological number 1.3000. On Tuesday the BOC Governor is scheduled to speak about Canadian household debt at the Yellowknife Chamber of Commerce luncheon. The Canadian economic calendar will also bring the GDP figures for the previous month while Friday we have the big risk event NFP report, which based on the market consensus we should expect 190k new jobs added in April.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 30 - May 4, 2018)

AUDUSD:

The AUDUSD decline stopped near the big psychological number 0.7500 and as long as we stay above this level on a daily closing basis we can expect a pullback. The weekly close above 0.7500 indicates that the bears are starting to get tired and this favors the bullish case scenario or at least we should see some kind of consolidation. On the upside, the first significant level of resistance comes at 0.7645 which put a cap on any rally. Only a daily close above 0.7645 can signal that a major swing low is put in place, but until then the downside should prevail.

The stochastic indicator is also resting after it has spent some time consolidating, but there is still room until we get into overbought territory. The Australian economic calendar looks busy with risk events. On Monday the RBA Governor, Assistant Low is scheduled to speak at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner, in Adelaide. Tuesday will bring the RBA interest rate decision which, according to the general consensus shouldn’t bring anything new. Wednesday the Unemployment rate will take the front stage while Thursday the Trade Balance is high volatility risk events.

 

[Takodoro]

Paging for Uncle Canberra. What's your view on this article? Especially the portion on exchange rate?

https://www.thebalance.com/what-was-the-asian-financial-crisis-1978997

 

[Takodoro]

https://www.thebalance.com/asset-bubble-causes-examples-and-how-to-protect-yourself-3305908

This article quoted USD as the asset bubble that caused 2016 oil crisis.

Edit: Never read properly....it merely mentioned higher USD aggravated the drop in oil price, which is priced in USD.

 

[ExtremeWays]

UJ crawling up silently

 

[rider83]

Hi bros! Long time no see u guys!!