Forex/Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread

[ExtremeWays]

Black Swan events

 

[Mr.Canberra]

USDZAR is up 5%!

I have a USD/ZAR 0.1 Lot. USD/ZAR I am not afraid. Only TRY. It is sanitary pad backed by an extremist lunatic.

Other EM currencies are just collateral damage. If not wrong Indonesia intervened already.

going back up le .. feel sian bo

What is there to sian? Cut and done with. Can sleep better.

EUR/TRY and USD/TRY shooting back up as of 2:42pm SGT.

I held for 4 months already and getting worse month after month. The Turkey economy will self destruct if that lunatic is still in charge.

You still have TRY positions?

It can go down again. I won't touch it.

Exactly.

It is just too volatile right now. Entire 9% move from the morning wiped out. I have never seen something like this. Stocks are supposed to behave like this, not currencies.

That is why I avoided stocks. My NO STOP LOSS strategy cannot work with stocks. I do not like to hold positions too long whenever possible. Once currencies like TRY move like that you just have to throw in the towel. I am more worried about my margin than losses. Although different backdrop the other good example is GBP which can move very violently such as previous flash crashes.

You can see the trading range of major pairs with fundamentally sound economy is not so violent these 2 days. Those I am not worried because the big boys do not dare to push too far due to PPP. Eg. I have said before that it is impossible USD/SGD shoot to 1.70 overnight. Only the TRY can pull off such stunts!

yes I agree. big boys using excuses to take profit and trap retailers. if they want, humji lee die also can cause stock market crash

The rout came from investors pulling money out from EM currencies and European stocks.

 

[ExtremeWays]

Hi revhappy, recommend two books to you:
Fooled by Randomness
The Black Swan

Historically, traders bought EM bonds in 90s until Argentina and Russia went bankrupt

 

[DukeCS33]

It is just too volatile right now. Entire 9% move from the morning wiped out. I have never seen something like this. Stocks are supposed to behave like this, not currencies.

Sent from Xiaomi REDMI NOTE 4 using GAGT

This is not new. The 97 crisis saw equally large volatility - that was my first year in FX. USD/SGD spread can be 2000 pips wide and dealt. I recalled quoting this as interbank spread when Asian markets closed for the day at 6pm and liquidity at lows. Overnight funding was 18% to 50% depending on which Asian currency pair.

 

[DukeCS33]

The rout came from investors pulling money out from EM currencies and European stocks.

These monies need to flow somewhere - I think mainly to safe haven and also to US - so I am surprised the Dow tumbled that much last Friday. Today see Dow futures down again - I am half thinking that it may close tonight flat or slight gain. Would the Fed stick to their rate hike schedule or hike less?

 

[ExtremeWays]

These monies need to flow somewhere - I think mainly to safe haven and also to US - so I am surprised the Dow tumbled that much last Friday. Today see Dow futures down again - I am half thinking that it may close tonight flat or slight gain. Would the Fed stick to their rate hike schedule or hike less?

Maybe the BB are storing them in cash or bonds.....

 

[revhappy]

These monies need to flow somewhere - I think mainly to safe haven and also to US - so I am surprised the Dow tumbled that much last Friday. Today see Dow futures down again - I am half thinking that it may close tonight flat or slight gain. Would the Fed stick to their rate hike schedule or hike less?

I think it is a case of general risk off sentiment. Money generally flows out of equities and into safe havens, like the Yen and fixed income.

Sent from Xiaomi REDMI NOTE 4 using GAGT

 

[havetheveryfun]

These monies need to flow somewhere - I think mainly to safe haven and also to US - so I am surprised the Dow tumbled that much last Friday. Today see Dow futures down again - I am half thinking that it may close tonight flat or slight gain. Would the Fed stick to their rate hike schedule or hike less?

some already flew to JPY n CHF

CHF termed "becoming safe haven currency again" last week

 

[havetheveryfun]

You still have TRY positions?

cut already.. from cut 50% to cut another 50% then cut all today morning after see the big gap down..

painful lesson learnt .. though not as painful as yours

 

[havetheveryfun]

cut already.. from cut 50% to cut another 50% then cut all today morning after see the big gap down..

painful lesson learnt .. though not as painful as yours

i reenter again small small, shouldnt have cut all

can buy something like TRY/SGD just 1000 units, even if TRY drop to 0, you only lose $200, but the upside is unlimited

but all the brokers knn have increased all the spread for TRY pairs and reduced the swap gain

 

[Mr.Canberra]

some already flew to JPY n CHF

CHF termed "becoming safe haven currency again" last week

Only with EUR/CHF pair. No significant move with USD/CHF pair.

The flows into Forex are majority USD and then JPY.

i reenter again small small, shouldnt have cut all

can buy something like TRY/SGD just 1000 units, even if TRY drop to 0, you only lose $200, but the upside is unlimited

but all the brokers knn have increased all the spread for TRY pairs and reduced the swap gain

This EM currencies rout is the warning shot only. This is how financial crises started. Mountain snow vibrated, start to snowball and then full blown avalanche. During 2008 GFC the stock market sell off lasted for one year until bottoming out around 2009.

Anyway up to individual. Your money, your call. If you have higher stakes like me you may execute plans differently. To me risk to reward ratio is not worth it now. Use $200 go and eat Din Tai Fung better.

You want to long TRY to gain swap? That is against the trend. Near, mid and long term!!! If someone hands me free money I will short TRY. This old extremist lunatic is going to be in charge for a long time unless someone or people power remove him. Also Trump will escalate tensions if opponent plays hard ball.

Initial margin has also increased for TRY and ZAR pairs.

I will not touch the cursed GBP and TRY.

Beginning of 7th Month Festival really give me one good one. 好兄弟 sibei ho!

 

[ExtremeWays]

Nobody scalping USDJPY???? Alot of opportunities to trade between 110 - 111

And it doesn't have the crazy Turkish Lira movement

 

[DukeCS33]

US Dow futures par earlier losses and is now down 7pts from 100+pts. Looks like a case of US not getting impact by the Turkey crisis since they were basically a catalyst that sparked it. Long USD and assets are probably the way to go in the short term.

 

[revhappy]

USD is cracking.

Sent from Xiaomi REDMI NOTE 4 using GAGT

 

[ExtremeWays]

USD is cracking.

Sent from Xiaomi REDMI NOTE 4 using GAGT

???????

Brother going to short usd?

 

[edwardZ]

BTC just lao sai...looking to re-short at around 6200-6280 range if we bounce up before another dump...looks like the 4k+ zone prophecy coming soon

 

[havetheveryfun]

BTC just lao sai...looking to re-short at around 6200-6280 range if we bounce up before another dump...looks like the 4k+ zone prophecy coming soon

seems like eth and alt coins are not being affected by btc prices anymore

when btc price goes down, eth and alt coins price go down, but when btc prices recover, eth and alt coins continue going down... eth $260 now !

 

[edwardZ]

seems like eth and alt coins are not being affected by btc prices anymore

when btc price goes down, eth and alt coins price go down, but when btc prices recover, eth and alt coins continue going down... eth $260 now !

i think only affected when BTC has major lao sai, most alts will follow suit...i usually see LTC price direction first, always the first one to lao sai, stomach damm weak...can get BTC price direction from it

earlier today i was suay and heng, BTC drop to almost 6130 my buy limit, but bounce up decently, missed the pump profits...then saw it didn't gain any highs on the charts and just keep testing resistance so pulled out my buy limit before BTC tanks

 

[CookieMonsta88]

seems like eth and alt coins are not being affected by btc prices anymore

when btc price goes down, eth and alt coins price go down, but when btc prices recover, eth and alt coins continue going down... eth $260 now !

Because these coins have no economic value, the first players are in BTC and gold, BTC and gold are similar, but the underlying security of its usage is, who has the most of it is king, otherwise it's really simply just a speculative vehicle. And the relationships between these are soft and flimsy, they arent gonna hold coz there is no true underlying economic value.

 

[havetheveryfun]

Because these coins have no economic value, the first players are in BTC and gold, BTC and gold are similar, but the underlying security of its usage is, who has the most of it is king, otherwise it's really simply just a speculative vehicle. And the relationships between these are soft and flimsy, they arent gonna hold coz there is no true underlying economic value.

they used to have more significant relationships as you could only use BTC to buy alt coins or sell alt coins into BTC

but now with the introduction of USDT, they do not have such a direct relationship to BTC anymore as ppl can buy or sell alt coins directly to dollars instead of BTC now