Forex/Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread

[Mr. Wood]

Economic data release. All in SST

Tue May 15 *
9:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
4:30pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
5:00pm GBP Inflation Report Hearings
8:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m

Wed May 16
9:30am AUD Wage Price Index q/q
8:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
8:30pm USD Building Permits
10:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thu May 17
12:00am CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
9:30am AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate
10:00am NZD Annual Budget Release

Fri May 18
8:30pm CAD CPI m/m
CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Can't go wrong with cash and precious metals. Mr.Canberra's preferred assets.

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156561113018291&id=716518290#_=_

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 14-18, 2018)

EURUSD:

Technical Outlook: The EURUSD was seen posting a modest rebound last week after prices touched fresh monthly lows near 1.1848. The rebound off the prices comes after the common currency posted a strong decline in the weeks before. The rebound off the support at 1.1848 indicates a near term bottom taking place but price action will need to maintain the gains to confirm this view. The immediate resistance is seen at 1.2000 level which marks a round number resistance level. Currently, the 4-hour chart shows a hidden bearish divergence which suggests that price action could be looking to dip back. In the near term, we expect to see EURUSD testing the price of 1.1870 ahead of potential gains toward 1.2000.

Fundamental Outlook: The economic calendar from the Eurozone gets off a busy start next week starting with the German preliminary quarterly GDP report. Later in the week, the second revised GDP estimates from the Eurozone is expected to be released. Data from the previous week showed that the Eurozone economy advanced 0.4% in the first three months of the year. This was a slower than expected pace of increase compared to 0.6% increase seen during the fourth quarter of 2017. The final inflation report for the month of April will also be coming out this week. Consumer prices in the Eurozone had slowed down for the second straight month and this could potentially upset the ECB’s plans to tighten policy further.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 14-18, 2018)

GBPUSD:

The GBPUSD has briefly broken below the big psychological number 1.3500 but the weekly close above suggests that the bulls still got a chance to at least see some correction. The first major resistance levels only come at 1.3712 but in order to see it retested again we still need a daily break and close above last week high 1.3617. On the downside the big round number 1.3500 followed by last week low 1.3460 remains our first support levels.

A break and a daily close below 1.3460 will open the door for a retest of the next important support level 1.3340. The stochastic indicator is in neutral territory which means we should expect some more range bound activity until we get to extreme overbought – oversold readings. The UK economic calendar has some notable risk events that can be the catalyst for some volatility. On Tuesday we should expect the Unemployment figures to come out, followed by the Inflation Report Hearings. The UK Unemployment rate fell to a 42-year low of 4.2% and based on the market consensus we should expect further improvements in the labor market. The unemployment rate is set to inch lower again to 4.1%.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 14-18, 2018)

USDCHF:

Technical Outlook: The USDCHF currency pair rallied to highs near 1.0042 before giving up some of the gains by Friday’s close. The price action near this level has turned somewhat flat and could suggest a modest retracement to the downside. USDCHF is likely to be tested the trend line from the price channel which could act as dynamic support. There is also a confluence of the horizontal price level at 0.9894 which together with the trend line could form a strong level of support. In the near term, USDCHF is likely to maintain the gains within the established range.

Fundamental Outlook: Data from Switzerland is quiet with only the producer prices index data on the tap. Most of the flows will be determined by data from the U.S. in the week ahead. The economic calendar from the U.S. is packed started with the retail sales report on Tuesday. Other data over the week covers mostly the housing market with building permits and housing starts data expected to be released over the week.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 14-18, 2018)

USDJPY:

Technical Outlook: The USDJPY currency pair initially consolidated near the 109.14 level before attempting to post some gains. However, this led prices to retest the previous highs near 109.86 and thus marking a double top pattern. The 4-hour Stochastic is currently in the oversold level and we could expect a modest retracement to the upside. However, as long as the highs of 109.86 is not breached, we expect USDJPY to break down below 109.14. In this case, the double top pattern could be confirmed with prices likely to fall to the next main support seen at 107.78 – 107.64.

Fundamental Outlook: Data from Japan for the week ahead is relatively quiet. The preliminary GDP report for the first quarter will be the main data point this week. The Japanese economy has been advancing at a steady pace over the past few quarters. This is expected to continue with the first quarter GDP expected to show an advancement as well. However, the pace of increase is expected to slow especially with the Japanese yen that surged higher during the same period. The higher exchange rate is expected to impact the export businesses which in turn could see a weaker pace of GDP growth.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 14-18, 2018)

USDCAD:

The USDCAD was unable to break above the big round number 1.3000 and sold off quite substantially establishing a swing high in the process. We’re currently stalling at support level 1.2745 and as long as we trade above this level, we should expect last week sell off to be corrected. A break and a daily close below 1.2745 will open up the door for more bearish momentum and retest the next important support level 1.2625.

The stochastic indicator is moving up from oversold territory which means that we can see a retest of resistance level 1.2815. More importantly the 1.2920 represents a more significant resistance level where USD/CAD can stall. There are some risk events scheduled on the Canadian economic calendar. On Tuesday, Council Member Schembri is due to speak at a luncheon hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society of Ottawa and the Ottawa Economics Association. Friday will bring the CPI inflation figure which is a high impact risk event.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (May 14-18, 2018)

AUDUSD:

The Aussie managed to post again a weekly close above the big psychological number 0.7500 but we can’t rule out the possibility of another retest of the 0.7470 support level before the bulls show up again. Last week high 0.7567 remains intraday resistance level and only a daily close above it can open the door for a retest of the 0.7645 level. The stochastic indicator is in overbought territory and it suggests that we should correct some of the previous week’s rally. More or less we should expect some ranging activity in the coming week.

The Australian economic calendar will is full of risk events that can disrupt the volatility. The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes is released on Tuesday. The RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks is due to deliver a speech titled “Interest Rate Benchmark Reform” at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association Forum in Hong Kong. The Unemployment rate released on Thursday is the main risk events for the Aussie.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Not much volatility so far today.

3 consecutive trading days eat grass liao. Today is the 4th day!

 

[ExtremeWays]

Not much volatility so far today.

3 consecutive trading days eat grass liao. Today is the 4th day!

人在做天在看。。。。。

 

[awful999]

Not much volatility so far today.

3 consecutive trading days eat grass liao. Today is the 4th day!

normal leh, if everyday also got wind then will be a problem too count money till not time to trade, take a break bro lolx

 

[havetheveryfun]

Not much volatility so far today.

3 consecutive trading days eat grass liao. Today is the 4th day!

today EUR n GBP very strong lei..

 

[Mr.Canberra]

normal leh, if everyday also got wind then will be a problem too count money till not time to trade, take a break bro lolx

Hahaha who say no wind!

Got fart coming out of chua sai boy's mouth leh!

Yes these few days have more time to do some accounting and 'count money' plus researching info for jiak hong trip.

 

[awful999]

Hahaha who say no wind!

Got fart coming out of chua sai boy's mouth leh!

Yes these few days have more time to do some accounting and 'count money' plus researching info for jiak hong trip.

you still bother that chua sai boy for what do your own staff/research better , dont waste time on that boy lah

 

[Mr.Canberra]

you still bother that chua sai boy for what do your own staff/research better, dont waste time on that boy lah

No worries he has earned his right for being ridiculed forever. Rubbish comes out from both his mouth and backside!

This thread needs a clown to lighten up a bit otherwise all the punting talk will be very dry. LOL!

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Europe session just closed. Today my positions surely eat grass for the 4th consecutive day!

 

[Mr. Wood]

 

[Takodoro]

Not much volatility so far today.

3 consecutive trading days eat grass liao. Today is the 4th day!

I sense volatility today. A lot of results announcement.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

I sense volatility today. A lot of results announcement.

Yes many European data coming out.

Also US 10 Year Treasury yields vaulted above 3% again. USD bulls not letting up. Some of my USD short positions under stress now hahaha.

London session opening soon. Let's see today if the USD demand continues or a USD bull trap.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

USD/JPY

USD/JPY tested the 110.0 handle yet again (third or fourth time) in recent weeks.

This is a clear indicator the USD long contracts are piling up.