Forex Trading Discussion!

[shawnwong]

praying USD/JPY go up! pray pray xD

Trade according to the market. Don't trade based on hope

 

[supratentorium]

I agree with the majority of what has been said here. I am certainly not a newbie (I hope) and with a well researched MM you can increase your equity aggressively on a run yet decrease the rate of loss of equity on a losing streak. Perhaps the scope of our discussion has been too simplified.

It's true that if winning rate >60% 'you are already god like'. However the equity curves between 2 traders may be drastically different. One may be a gentle upward sloping curve, the other a parabolic one.


Nevertheless, may everyone achieve great pips!

I am all ears. What kind of secret sauce is this magic money management formula could you share? I infer you mean to say you know your next trade will be a winner and bet more or the next is a loser you bet less (dependency)

 

[guowei]

Trade according to the market. Don't trade based on hope

forex is like toto... u place a bet and all u can do is pray sometime luck good, japan government suddenly dump a few trillion into the market and push usd/jpy up. sometime luck bad and moody declare US bank to be dead... after so many years in the market, all i learn is to pray cause no matter how much research u do end up the market is driven by panic buy and panic sell illogical

 

[squan123]

I am all ears. What kind of secret sauce is this magic money management formula could you share? I infer you mean to say you know your next trade will be a winner and bet more or the next is a loser you bet less (dependency)

Each trade by default is independent upon the previous, unless you're trading the same currency in the current trend.

There is no magic in this. Everyone has their own trading style, and therefore each MM is slightly different. Rather than repeating the parts of MM where most would know (win rate, r:r, ...), I would like to build upon it.

For example,
1. If you trade the euro exclusively and hit a major trend, you may want to be aggressive on your next entry point (dependency), and reset the multiplier when that wave is over.

2. If you trade more than a pair, you may want to base the multiplier on your equity instead.

MM for the latter case can be as simple as increasing your lot size by 10% for every 20% increase in equity. Roughly vice versa if your account is in the red, but some tweaking will be needed. (just an example!)

What the threadstarter is trying to do is to build up his account size aggressively, gradually decreasing his risk when his equity is sufficiently large enough. This can be done with a slowdown multiplier on his current equity less initial equity. (just an example!) So unless we totally understand his MM and trading, don't beat him down just because his risk profile is so high now!

This MM thing is way more complicated than that. You can make it as convoluted as you like or as simple as you wish. However, if it were so simple, the 90% statistics would be reversed (and you'll end up with less of the pie anyway).

And no, I'm definitely not able to predict whether the next trade is a winner or a loser. Imagine what I could do with that ability. I'll just wait for the next winning trade, bet the whole bank and with that $ I can stop trading FX forever

 

[shawnwong]

forex is like toto... u place a bet and all u can do is pray sometime luck good, japan government suddenly dump a few trillion into the market and push usd/jpy up. sometime luck bad and moody declare US bank to be dead... after so many years in the market, all i learn is to pray cause no matter how much research u do end up the market is driven by panic buy and panic sell illogical

I can understand some approach FX with a gambling mind-set. But FX is never like toto. You chance of getting a winning trade will definitely be higher than striking toto. Also once you placed a trade, you can definitely do more than pray, if it is not a good trade, you can close early and cut loss.

 

[supratentorium]

Each trade by default is independent upon the previous, unless you're trading the same currency in the current trend.

There is no magic in this. Everyone has their own trading style, and therefore each MM is slightly different. Rather than repeating the parts of MM where most would know (win rate, r:r, ...), I would like to build upon it.

For example,
1. If you trade the euro exclusively and hit a major trend, you may want to be aggressive on your next entry point (dependency), and reset the multiplier when that wave is over.

2. If you trade more than a pair, you may want to base the multiplier on your equity instead.

MM for the latter case can be as simple as increasing your lot size by 10% for every 20% increase in equity. Roughly vice versa if your account is in the red, but some tweaking will be needed. (just an example!)

What the threadstarter is trying to do is to build up his account size aggressively, gradually decreasing his risk when his equity is sufficiently large enough. This can be done with a slowdown multiplier on his current equity less initial equity. (just an example!) So unless we totally understand his MM and trading, don't beat him down just because his risk profile is so high now!

This MM thing is way more complicated than that. You can make it as convoluted as you like or as simple as you wish. However, if it were so simple, the 90% statistics would be reversed (and you'll end up with less of the pie anyway).

And no, I'm definitely not able to predict whether the next trade is a winner or a loser. Imagine what I could do with that ability. I'll just wait for the next winning trade, bet the whole bank and with that $ I can stop trading FX forever

Hi Squan

Thanks, i appreciate your post. I get the idea.
"I will get to X quickly or I will die trying".
"I will get X amount of dollars quickly, at most i will just blow up this "small account". "
I like to be a cockroach, to be hardy, but it's just me.
I definitely won't put anyone down, hey its their money.

 

[OnlyHuman]

Trade of the day!

Hey People, i found 2 high probability setups to share.


1) AUD/USD

Daily Chart ; Bearish Engulfing Bar has been formed and price closed significantly lower than prior candlestick.


2) XAU/USD


Daily Chart ; Bearish Engulfing Bar has been formed and price closed significantly lower than prior candlestick.



I am shorting both, lets see which one works

 

[OnlyHuman]

Hi Squan

Thanks, i appreciate your post. I get the idea.
"I will get to X quickly or I will die trying".
"I will get X amount of dollars quickly, at most i will just blow up this "small account". "
I like to be a cockroach, to be hardy, but it's just me.
I definitely won't put anyone down, hey its their money.

I actually found someone doing using similar type of mindset trading on forexfactory.

He was up 100 fold from $100 to $10,000 in less than a week but eventually blew his account.

He is still trying i believe, from what i can see. Its very aggressive but i think he just blew another account yesterday ^^;

This is the link. forexsaint's Profile @ Forex Factory

 

[guowei]

Hey People, i found 2 high probability setups to share.


1) AUD/USD

Daily Chart ; Bearish Engulfing Bar has been formed and price closed significantly lower than prior candlestick.


2) XAU/USD


Daily Chart ; Bearish Engulfing Bar has been formed and price closed significantly lower than prior candlestick.



I am shorting both, lets see which one works

agree with AUD/USD, i also shorting. as long china keep giving bad news AUD will have a hard time staying up... think the latest news is that china government had stopped their government base building project, that cant be good for AUD that export most of their metal to china

 

[guowei]

I can understand some approach FX with a gambling mind-set. But FX is never like toto. You chance of getting a winning trade will definitely be higher than striking toto. Also once you placed a trade, you can definitely do more than pray, if it is not a good trade, you can close early and cut loss.

real time Toto but Toto no less

 

[Lasogette]

glad to see a fx thread discussion thread here and its pretty active.

what time frames do you guys trade in and what pairs? For me I trade the 1 hr time frame on Eur Usd, Gbp Usd and Aud Usd and I only trade the pin bar price action risking 3% per trade.

Risk to reward normally will be set at 1 : 1 and 1: 2.
Eg I enter 2 contracts of long Eur Usd with a 30 pips stop loss, 1st contract target price will be at the 30 pips stop loss, so i can ride my 2nd contract up at a supposedly "Free trade". Feel free to criticise or comment on it as we are all here to learn from each other.

 

[OnlyHuman]

I trade on hourly & 4 hour time frame.

Its based on daily chart analysis and i use charts with New York Close.

i risk 2 ~ 3% on a single trade and usually looking for more than 2 : 1.

 

[act333]

So surprised to see a flurry of activity on this thread.

Perhaps I should clarify that when I say I risk 10-15% on each trade, that is my SL level. I usually close out my positions before it hits my SL for a 7.5-9% hit in equity.

And yes, I understand I am risking a lot. Bur firstly, I am young and I can earn any losses back from working next time. I might not have such luxury when I am older. Secondly, I am not borrowing money or playing 'contra' when I am trading forex/stocks. I am using risk capital to trade - money that I can afford to lose. Finally, I already withdrew my initial risk capital. All the money that I am trading with now is pure profits from my previous 3 weeks of trading. I will heartpain if I lose my shirt, but less so than if I lose my risk capital.

As for my open trades, I am positioning myself ahead of the UK GDP release by shorting GBPUSD and GBPAUD. For GU, I see a much-needed correction to the 5180 level. Searching for divergences amidst these overbought levels.

I am also holding my USDCAD long from 2 days back, which is a S/R level swing trade.

Great pippin' everyone!

 

[yoshihara]

Hey People, i found 2 high probability setups to share.


1) AUD/USD

Daily Chart ; Bearish Engulfing Bar has been formed and price closed significantly lower than prior candlestick.


2) XAU/USD


Daily Chart ; Bearish Engulfing Bar has been formed and price closed significantly lower than prior candlestick.



I am shorting both, lets see which one works

0.93 for AUD/USD is a strong resistance so failure to break is a good sign for u. I am shorting on EUR/USD on a short term basis. Ranging markets are my prediction.

 

[revered_man]

glad to see a fx thread discussion thread here and its pretty active.

what time frames do you guys trade in and what pairs? For me I trade the 1 hr time frame on Eur Usd, Gbp Usd and Aud Usd and I only trade the pin bar price action risking 3% per trade.

Risk to reward normally will be set at 1 : 1 and 1: 2.
Eg I enter 2 contracts of long Eur Usd with a 30 pips stop loss, 1st contract target price will be at the 30 pips stop loss, so i can ride my 2nd contract up at a supposedly "Free trade". Feel free to criticise or comment on it as we are all here to learn from each other.

I've got a question for you and the rest who can answer this.

How do you determine that the pin bar "works"? In other words, how do you know that executing your trade off the pin bar will go in your favour?

I fully know that trading is a probabilities game, so you cant exactly "know" if it works. But how do any of you use the pin bar to your advantage?

Things i look out for are
1) long nose and small body(body must be located at the top/botttom third of the bar)
2) the body of the pinbar must close within the previous bar
3) must be located at S/R or swing high/low
4) enter on a break of the PB to know that the PB "works"

So are there any other factors that can provide confluence?

 

[yoshihara]

I've got a question for you and the rest who can answer this.

How do you determine that the pin bar "works"? In other words, how do you know that executing your trade off the pin bar will go in your favour?

I fully know that trading is a probabilities game, so you cant exactly "know" if it works. But how do any of you use the pin bar to your advantage?

Things i look out for are
1) long nose and small body(body must be located at the top/botttom third of the bar)
2) the body of the pinbar must close within the previous bar
3) must be located at S/R or swing high/low
4) enter on a break of the PB to know that the PB "works"

So are there any other factors that can provide confluence?

My explaination is very simple for this. Experience > factors. Find at least 50 pin bars and compare the differences and similiarity. Furthermore, there are more than one charting signal.

 

[Lasogette]

I've got a question for you and the rest who can answer this.

How do you determine that the pin bar "works"? In other words, how do you know that executing your trade off the pin bar will go in your favour?

I fully know that trading is a probabilities game, so you cant exactly "know" if it works. But how do any of you use the pin bar to your advantage?

Things i look out for are
1) long nose and small body(body must be located at the top/botttom third of the bar)
2) the body of the pinbar must close within the previous bar
3) must be located at S/R or swing high/low
4) enter on a break of the PB to know that the PB "works"

So are there any other factors that can provide confluence?

I have only 1 year of past trading exp so I may not be the correct person to ans this question. However I will answer it based on how i trade

Criteria for the pinbar setup.

1. Using the daily chart, draw support and resistance lines

2. Determine the trend on the daily chart, (uptrend, downtrend or sideways)

3. Zoom in to the hourly chart and see if the lowest level of the pin hits a significant support or resistant based on point 1.

4. This point was recently added only. If point 2 is an uptrend, I only trade the Hammar pinbars(Long) and not the shooting stars(Short). I do not want to go counter trend, although pinbars are mostly used for counter trend trading.

5. Do not enter on the pin itself, however wait for the next hour bar to give a confirmation that it did not go below the pin's lowest or highest point. Eg if you have a hammar, the next bar is an engulfing bearish bar, you wouldn't want to go for a long at the pin.

However these points are not fool proof. I have gone through 6-7 losing trades in a row trading this setup. Just sharing some knowledge. Caveat Emptor.

 

[shawnwong]

I trade 15min timeframe only on fiber. Nowadays I trade lesser, only those 'high probability' trade.

Tried many methods. Used to be scalpers. Traded numerous systems, even some self-invent. Traded news announcement, short holding time frame and even long time frame like for months. Used to trade cable, aussie, geppy and yen. Now only fiber cos it is the most traded currency pair thus like its volatility.

Currently more of a swing trader. Using existing system plus a few of my own.

 

[OnlyHuman]

I've got a question for you and the rest who can answer this.

How do you determine that the pin bar "works"? In other words, how do you know that executing your trade off the pin bar will go in your favour?

I fully know that trading is a probabilities game, so you cant exactly "know" if it works. But how do any of you use the pin bar to your advantage?

Things i look out for are
1) long nose and small body(body must be located at the top/botttom third of the bar)
2) the body of the pinbar must close within the previous bar
3) must be located at S/R or swing high/low
4) enter on a break of the PB to know that the PB "works"

So are there any other factors that can provide confluence?

Hey bro,

You mentioned something i love, the Pin Bar. I think you have mentioned everything except for time frame and up/downtrend channel.
Which time frame do you look into when trading?

Personally, i believe Daily time frame has more significance than 4 hour time frame. For example, if i see a pin bar on 4 hour chart but on the daily chart it shows no trading opportunity. I won't trade.

Another thing i also take note of is that, is the Pin bar for shorting should be found within a downtrend or just out of a uptrend to have higher probability.

 

[act333]

Anyone noticed that this week the currency moves don't tend to follow through? Like it goes 30, 40 pips in your favour, then suddenly reverses against you?

Happened like 4 times in 3 days. Really