The Kingmakers of GE2025 that Gerry & Mandering Misses - Our Reticence Malay, Indian & Minority Communities
I started thinking about this when I took a look into PSP's West Coast line-ups GE2025 vis-a-vis GE2020.
I was curious why TCB made the tactical switch to reduce the Chinese candidates from the original four down to the three notable names and increased their Malay candidates from zero in GE2020 to two in GE2025.
It led me to examine the voters' ethnicity further and realized that the new West Coast - Jurong West GRC is only made up of 70% Chinese, while Malays are at 17.5% and Indians at 10% - the latter two are higher than the national average of 13% and 9% respectively.
Polling day vote counts can only give the ruling government voting pattern resolutions down to the voting district and precinct levels (that few blocks of flats sharing the same voting station). It cannot zoom down further to age and race of each voters in every precinct.
And this is where Gerry & Mandering misses. Our three minority communities have traditionally been reticence and more importantly, much more monolithic, close-knitted and united as a community in their own right, than say the Chinese community who has more diverse interests and motivations.
So in this closely fought GE2025, where the winning margins will be down to the region of +/- 2%-3%; I put forth the hypothesis that our reticence Malay, Indian, Eurasian brothers and sisters of Singapore will be the Kingmakers who will have a larger than usual voice to shout out what they wish for Singapore in the next five years.
Besides West Coast - Jurong West GRC, Tampines GRC and CCK GRC also have higher than average minority communities voting bloc. And those 2%-3% more minority representation may indeed make the difference in GE2025.
Interestingly, both PSP and WP have also called for an additional public holiday on Thaipusam; and never underestimate the powers of the tenth month's star that Gerry & Mandering misses.
PS: For completeness and comparison purposes, the national average for Chinese community is 74%. AMK GRC has 80% Chinese, Marine Parade has 78% and Bishan - Toa Payoh has 83.5% and Tanjong Pagar has 80%.