General S-REITs Discussion Thread

[DevilPlate]

Depends on the reit, those who got into Keppel dc reit won’t be so happy.

The best no brainer buy was long duration bonds, 30 yr USTs are up 30% in just a few weeks. Limited downside with a lot of upside in late October. The “higher forever” crowd totally missed this opportunity.

I only make few % for my IDTL hahaha

 

[DevilPlate]

Yup, TLT is also up almost 20% . . Rarely get this kinda opportunity in fixed income.

My timing wasn’t soooo good lah….impossible to catch the bottom

 

[elvintay07]

Yup, TLT is also up almost 20% . . Rarely get this kinda opportunity in fixed income.

Sibei song. I hammered a few tranches. Now still can hammer. But Fed projection of 2026 rates to be 3%. Like that TLT no cheong

 

[churnmaster]

My timing wasn’t soooo good lah….impossible to catch the bottom

No need to catch the bottom . . If you can get 50-70% of the move, then it’s good enough.

 

[churnmaster]

Sibei song. I hammered a few tranches. Now still can hammer. But Fed projection of 2026 rates to be 3%. Like that TLT no cheong

I’m not sure if we’ll see the 80s but low to mid 90s still possible . . Nothing goes up in a straight line.

 

[DevilPlate]

No need to catch the bottom . . If you can get 50-70% of the move, then it’s good enough.

I bot idtl near last Oct low and then cui went down 10-15% but USD went up like 3-4% so only average down abit.

talking about bond timing plus forex timing whahahaha

 

[elvintay07]

TLT let it cheong to $1.30. Eventually 2 things will happen

(1) High interest = recession. Fed cuts interest aggressively
(2) Interest eventually reduce from 2024 to 2026

(1) and (2) happens, TLT also cheong

Got another scenario my bear friends hoping for. It is interest rates goes > 10% and TLT die. Either way won’t happen already because Powell don’t dare to do it as too near election. After election, Biden will likely lose.

 

[churnmaster]

I bot idtl near last Oct low and then cui went down 10-15% but USD went up like 3-4% so only average down abit.

talking about bond timing plus forex timing whahahaha

I also started buying around 88 and then kept adding all the way to 83 . . On the way up sold some around 89, 94, 96 and will add on pullbacks . . Din’t convert any sgd to usd.

 

[DevilPlate]

I also started buying around 88 and then kept adding all the way to 83 . . On the way up sold some around 89, 94, 96 and will add on pullbacks . . Din’t convert any sgd to usd.

I dont hv ibkr so i duno where else to park my usd....tats why i only change to usd when i wana buy bond/stocks

 

[d5dude]

I only make few % for my IDTL hahaha

Its still a good entry point lah, much better than the people who were buying this at $6+ when the 20 yr was at 1%.

 

[churnmaster]

TLT let it cheong to $1.30. Eventually 2 things will happen

(1) High interest = recession. Fed cuts interest aggressively
(2) Interest eventually reduce from 2024 to 2026

(1) and (2) happens, TLT also cheong

Got another scenario my bear friends hoping for. It is interest rates goes > 10% and TLT die. Either way won’t happen already because Powell don’t dare to do it as too near election. After election, Biden will likely lose.

You should ask your bearish friends what can trigger a double digit interest rate ?

If China decides to dump its UST holdings then it can cause a sharp selloff and subsequently higher yields, however most likely temporary. Other than that even if inflation goes higher, FED is unlikely to raise interest rates too high. They can live with higher inflation but not deflation.

 

[d5dude]

TLT let it cheong to $1.30. Eventually 2 things will happen

(1) High interest = recession. Fed cuts interest aggressively
(2) Interest eventually reduce from 2024 to 2026

(1) and (2) happens, TLT also cheong

Got another scenario my bear friends hoping for. It is interest rates goes > 10% and TLT die. Either way won’t happen already because Powell don’t dare to do it as too near election. After election, Biden will likely lose.

TLT to $1.3 is not very likely, long bond yields will need to drop another 200bps from here to around 2.2%. Only a financial crisis would trigger such a huge move.

 

[TehSi99]

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...us-reit-lendlease-global-reit-cromwell-e-reit

I no subscribe so can't show the full contents.
But the title tells enough although I don't agree 100%.

DYDD.

 

[DevilPlate]

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...us-reit-lendlease-global-reit-cromwell-e-reit

I no subscribe so can't show the full contents.
But the title tells enough although I don't agree 100%.

DYDD.

i also cant see….but heng Lendlease recover back liao….duno whether shd continue hold this sampam reit anot

 

[stanlawj]

If you can see the warning signs...REITS going to start slapping investors with share placements.

1st one: Elite Commercial REIT (MXNU)

Retail money is cheap... compared to bank loans. Manager certainly not betting on rate cuts. Look at who's underwriting the offering: the brokers and banks... don't trust them for any REITS timing advice.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ne...raise-gbp28-mil-through-preferential-offering

Elite Commercial REIT is seeking to raise GBP28 million ($47.2 million) via the launch of a fully underwritten non-renounceable preferential offering.

....The remaining amount will be fully underwritten by CGS-CIMB Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. and RHB Bank Berhad, through its Singapore branch.

 

[Iyarash11]

waiting to set free MINT

 

[DevilPlate]

If you can see the warning signs...REITS going to start slapping investors with share placements.

1st one: Elite Commercial REIT (MXNU)

Retail money is cheap... compared to bank loans. Manager certainly not betting on rate cuts. Look at who's underwriting the offering: the brokers and banks... don't trust them for any REITS timing advice.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ne...raise-gbp28-mil-through-preferential-offering

Elite Commercial REIT is seeking to raise GBP28 million ($47.2 million) via the launch of a fully underwritten non-renounceable preferential offering.

....The remaining amount will be fully underwritten by CGS-CIMB Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. and RHB Bank Berhad, through its Singapore branch.

Sampan reits no choice lah.

Bluechips S-reits no issue getting loans at 3.5%

 

[zeroX26]

If you can see the warning signs...REITS going to start slapping investors with share placements.

1st one: Elite Commercial REIT (MXNU)

Retail money is cheap... compared to bank loans. Manager certainly not betting on rate cuts. Look at who's underwriting the offering: the brokers and banks... don't trust them for any REITS timing advice.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ne...raise-gbp28-mil-through-preferential-offering

Elite Commercial REIT is seeking to raise GBP28 million ($47.2 million) via the launch of a fully underwritten non-renounceable preferential offering.

....The remaining amount will be fully underwritten by CGS-CIMB Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. and RHB Bank Berhad, through its Singapore branch.

Ain't you the one who's gloom and doom about SG Reits, forecasting a even deeper drop when most of us were buying 6-8 weeks ago?

 

[stanlawj]

Ain't you the one who's gloom and doom about SG Reits, forecasting a even deeper drop when most of us were buying 6-8 weeks ago?

Really? Read my Nov 1st, 2023 post on below yet? I'm now invested in a gold mining stock. It is one of the most rate-sensitive asset, far more leveraged in reaction to real yields than REITS.

US Treasury dept attempts to stem the sudden rise in UST10yr to 30yr yields by issuing more shorter-term bills and notes. Looks like the US Treasury dept has noticed the events recently (UST bond market crash) and taken it seriously.

Some kind of relief rally in SREITS may happen over next few weeks (till Jan 2024?) should the UST10yr yields becomes rangebound between 4.7% to 5%. Most of the panicked sellers would have already sold during the past few days sudden crash in SREITS.

Quarterly Refunding Statement of Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Josh Frost
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1864

 

[stanlawj]

Frasers' group of REITS reporting from 22 - 24 Jan 2024.

https://www.investingnote.com/stock_events/calendar