General S-REITs Discussion Thread

sky1978

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https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...io-almost-20-discount-its-longer-term-average

S-Reits sector’s PB ratio is at almost 20% discount to its longer-term average​


Free to read, not behind paywall

REITs are mostly yield-driven, and P/B doesn't have much meaning unless there is an intention to buy over all the properties and sell them off.

The valuations are conducted using the CAP rate, and the major component of CAP is the Net Operating Income (NOI), which is a before-tax figure.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/...,expenditures, depreciation, and amortization.

https://officefinder.com.sg/singapore-office-cap-rates-remain-stable/

If a property generates 50mil NOI and the valuer uses a 5% cap rate, the value becomes 1bil. In an extreme example, If investors need to pay 10mil fees to their manager and pocket only 40mil, the valuer isn't going to consider that during the valuation because they are valuing the property itself rather than their investment choice/structure, so if investors require the same 5% return as the cap rate, the share price need to drop to achieve the required return. Even if the property gives a return in excess of the Cap rate after fees, the market might still demand a return higher than the Cap rate, which means the price has to fall also. So, in conclusion, the fees side already provides a good cushion when it comes to valuation. If an investor can buy the property themselves without using a manager, they can probably save that 10mil fee, but then, it can also be argued that there is a tax-saving benefit using a REIT structure vs a direct investment, but the tax component does not enter valuation. However, if investors make a direct investment, they will use 70% to 90% leverage compared to the below 40% under a trust. The ROE for them will be much higher despite the tax advantage in a Trust model, and their interest expenses can be tax-deductible. Also, they control the timing as to when to sell the property. Therefore. investors who cannot control when to sell the properties will likely go after the yield and perceived stability rather than P/B.

This report includes a table on Cap rates across major Asian markets. The Cap rate tracks interest rates but does not exactly mirror the interest rate environment. Otherwise, HK would be illogical to have a 3%++ Cap rate vs. the USD short-term rate, which is more than 5%. So, the long-term rates probably have a bigger impact. In addition, various factors like the types of properties, country, supply/demand and economic condition will affect the cap rate.
https://mktgdocs.cbre.com/2299/546d2f6a-769a-4a3d-ba9d-891088f693b6-1982492843.pdf

Over the past 12 months, REITs have also sold properties (especially those located in SG). Just look at the reported selling price vs valuation and see if they are selling at a gain or loss.

For every 50bps hike in the Cap rate, the NOI need to increase by 10% to maintain the current valuation. Using that 1bil property with 50mil NOI at a 5% Cap rate as an example, if NOI increased to 55mil, it could support a Cap rate of 5.5%. So, the extent of valuation decline also depends on its ability to hike rents, which you all need to research what your asset classes are your REITs holding.
 

stanlawj

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SG Reits clearly don't believe you. Most have rebounded 12-15% from recent lows liao. Your SG reits argamegeddon story clearly not happening :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:
UST 10yr yields spikes up again to 4.5%. Last time it did so was on 21 Sept 2023.
XLRE ETF in USA is down.

Let's see how SG-REITS behave tomorrow onwards after Hari Raya holiday.
 

ctan84

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UST 10yr yields spikes up again to 4.5%. Last time it did so was on 21 Sept 2023.
XLRE ETF in USA is down.

Let's see how SG-REITS behave tomorrow onwards after Hari Raya holiday.
Looking forward to your armageddon prophecy for S-Reits to come true.
 

stanlawj

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reminds me of uncle168 and his famous armageddon threads. :cool:
when interest rate rises the cost of financing increase exponentially as reits are highly leveraged if you discount their property portfolio on historical cost

however due to the oversupply of retail, office, commerical, hotel space on the market, reits will find it hard to increase rental to offset the increase in interest rate

this would mean reits will have to cut dpu or deleverage via rights issue

the fed is going to accelerate rate hikes

reits would face challenges as every year they have to refinance their mountain of debts and kick the can down the road

if reits have zero debt you can buy and rest assure they will never collapse

but reits don't really belong to unitholders

the portfolio of properties will eventually be auctioned off by the banks to get their money back leaving nothing for the unitholders just like the shipping reits

this will happen very soon :o
This uncle168 one right? He is forecasting bankruptcy in REITS.

Notice I am different: Looking to know if we get lower low or higher low in SG REITS as UST long bond yields spike back up nearing 5% again. By the way, with the USD strength post-Apr CPI, SG REITS are already starting to get depressed by SGD weakening vs USD.
 

ctan84

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UST 10yr yields spikes up again to 4.5%. Last time it did so was on 21 Sept 2023.
XLRE ETF in USA is down.

Let's see how SG-REITS behave tomorrow onwards after Hari Raya holiday.
No armageddon deep impact leh. Jin dissapointing...
 

stanlawj

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This is very bullish for SG REITS with significant SG properties, eg FCT. If ADB has an accurate projection, rental revenue for FCT will increase faster than the growth of financing cost.

https://www.straitstimes.com/busine...erating-and-inflation-slowing-in-2024-to-2025

ADB sees Singapore growth accelerating and inflation slowing in 2024 to 2025​


Singapore’s economic growth will accelerate over the next two years, boosted by stronger exports, while inflation will slow, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on April 11.

The Manila-headquartered bank said Singapore will clock gross domestic product growth of 2.4 per cent in 2024, up from 1.1 per cent in 2023.

Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) has forecast that GDP in 2024 will expand between 1 per cent and 3 per cent. The International Monetary Fund projects Singapore’s growth at 2.1 per cent for 2024.

MTI will release the advance GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2024 on April 12. On the same day, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will issue its quarterly statement on its Singapore-dollar policy stance.
 

stanlawj

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Looking forward to your armageddon prophecy for S-Reits to come true.
Does this count as Armageddon for the strongest Singapore REITS: FCT (J69U)?

Reference: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/real-value.asp

What Is Real Value?​

The real value of an item, also called its relative price, is its nominal value adjusted for inflation and measures that value in terms of another item.

embed
 

ctan84

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Does this count as Armageddon for the strongest Singapore REITS: FCT (J69U)?

Reference: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/real-value.asp

What Is Real Value?​

The real value of an item, also called its relative price, is its nominal value adjusted for inflation and measures that value in terms of another item.

embed
NAHHHHH, did u see the prices of sg reits today? Even Maple Pan Asia still strong above $1.30. Your fairy tales ain't coming true. No matter what graphs and charts you are throwing, prices of sg-reits r just not moving down much. Money isn't made from embracing theories hoping they will come true one loh.
 

TehSi99

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NAHHHHH, did u see the prices of sg reits today? Even Maple Pan Asia still strong above $1.30. Your fairy tales ain't coming true. No matter what graphs and charts you are throwing, prices of sg-reits r just not moving down much. Money isn't made from embracing theories hoping they will come true one loh.

I think bad news, expectations of DPU going down, Fed holding interest rate longer than expected, inflation....etc should have already price in. So prices should be flat or more upside than downside.

DYDD.
 

ctan84

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I think bad news, expectations of DPU going down, Fed holding interest rate longer than expected, inflation....etc should have already price in. So prices should be flat or more upside than downside.

DYDD.
Yah loh, market follows the "saint seiya rule" one but @stanlawj don't seem to get this :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:
 

stanlawj

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We are definitely in the midst of a silent crash. Hmm..... I guess everyone's still happy!

That's why the govt loves paper currency running in a fractional reserve banking system. Can't let ordinary ppl see this.

STI ETF (ES3) *priced in gold currency*
embed


CLR (LION-PHILLIP SREIT ETF) *priced in gold currency*
embed
 
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ctan84

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We are definitely in the midst of a silent crash. Hmm..... I guess everyone's still happy!

That's why the govt loves paper currency running in a fractional reserve banking system. Can't let ordinary ppl see this.

STI ETF (ES3)
embed


CLR (LION-PHILLIP SREIT ETF)
embed
Wah.... wkend u also dun take a break one ah...
 

TehSi99

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We are definitely in the midst of a silent crash. Hmm..... I guess everyone's still happy!

That's why the govt loves paper currency running in a fractional reserve banking system. Can't let ordinary ppl see this.

STI ETF (ES3) *priced in gold currency*
embed


CLR (LION-PHILLIP SREIT ETF) *priced in gold currency*
embed

Thanks for sharing in a different perspective.
I see the similar trend if you plot SPY/XAUUSD.
 
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