How can there be oversupply? Not even when the vacancy rate is approaching 8% and projected to hit 10% in 2 years time?
Like I said, the pent up demand is from speculators who have this misconception that there is insufficient housing to house the growing population, the real numbers tell a different story, the truth is there is already sufficient inventory to house another 1.3m people by 2018.
Statistics do not differentiate between first time home buyers or speculators of multiple properties. The current private housing oversupply glut is due to cooling measures. Remove TDSR and ABSD with immediate effect and let's see if there is undersupply or oversupply. Price will suddenly shoot up if this pent up demand is allowed to be released.
This is call market force and a lot of times people go in with herd mentality or emotion.
My view is both public housing (already undersupply) and private housing will be undersupply again in time to come when cooling measures are removed.
If history repeats itself at the end of the day surely back to square one again as price will continue to spiral up once GE is over. As I've said it's all politics. It's a well known fact most Singaporeans will not be able to afford private properties. The foreign speculators/"FTs" are just waiting for a good field day. It's the future generation of Singaporeans that will have to slog even harder loh. By that time the decendants of the pioneer generation should be the minority liao.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. I rest my case.
I should remind you that history says you are wrong though.
Not really.. there is a very easy solution. Just make sure that everyone don't start work at the same time.
Like I said you are confusing speculators with people who buy because they need housing, and of course it matters if the market is being driven by speculation, or not. Speculators buy to tenant out, but they can't do that easily if vacancy rates are high, these people are weak holders and they will be the first to bail when they cannot service their mortgages on the empty units any longer. This will inevitably put downward pressure on prices, its a matter of when, and not if.
You do not have any statistics to prove that vacancy rates are not rising, or that they will cease to rise any time soon, or do you think vacancy rates do not have any impact on home prices?
TDSR is unlikely to be removed, not even in a downturn. Frankly speaking 60% isn't even remotely draconian, spending 60% of one's disposable income on servicing loans alone is pretty crazy.
The other cooling measures like ABSD will be removed at some point, but I doubt it will have a lasting impact on prices. Very few investors will be interested in buying a property if he cannot rent out his unit easily, in the end everything still hinges on vacancy rates.
I admire your optimism but I think there is very little basis for that now, property isn't going to do well in the next few years, in fact I'd consider myself lucky if I don't see a massive drop in the value of my property.
