Historical Rolling Returns - DCA into STI

Mecisteus

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I did this exercise to give a realistic picture of the kind of returns that you would expect if you were to do a Dollar Cost Average (DCA) into STI over a long period of time.

In the real life, you would be buying 1 of the 2 STI ETF which are ES3 or G3B. Since STI ETF doesn't exist for a very long period of time, I will be using STI price data from yahoo finance. To simplify my calculations, my assumption is that you can buy the index perfectly.

The ST Index data is available from yahoo finance. Period under study is from 4/Jan/1988 to 1/Jul/2016.

Returns are calculated on a rolling basis. As an example, you will achieve 1.86% pa (based on price) if you DCA into STI for exactly 20 years and sold at the start of the year 2016 (bolded in table).

Assumptions:
Transaction costs are not included.
Returns DO NOT include dividends. You can expect an additional 3% returns from dividends, based on the yield of STI ETF. The current yield of ES3 (SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF) is 3.39% based on the closing price of 14/Jul/2016. See references below.

Some key findings:
1) You are likely to achieve a positive return if your holding period is longer. 95% of the 20-year windows, your returns (excluding dividends) will be positive if you DCA into STI.
2) A realistic long term (20 years) return to expect by DCA into Singapore market would be 6.59% pa. (Average 20Y price gain = 3.59% + 3% dividend yield).

Table 1: Distribution of annualized price returns of DCA into STI for various holding period
Returns(5Y) Returns(10Y) Returns(15Y) Returns(20Y)
<0% 73 64 17 5
>0% 211 160 147 99
>3% 182 131 114 80
>5% 133 82 55 6
Average returns 3.83% 2.83% 3.76% 3.59%
% of positive returns 74.30% 71.43% 89.63% 95.19%

Table 2: Annualized price returns of DCA into STI for various holding period
Month# Date Returns(5Y) Returns(10Y) Returns(15Y) Returns(20Y)
1 1/7/2016 -2.80% -0.23% 2.35% 2.62%
2 1/6/2016 -3.22% -0.37% 2.29% 2.55%
3 3/5/2016 -4.03% -0.70% 2.10% 2.40%
4 1/4/2016 -3.41% -0.33% 2.36% 2.56%
5 1/3/2016 -3.46% -0.30% 2.41% 2.57%
6 1/2/2016 -6.20% -1.57% 1.64% 1.99%
7 4/1/2016 -6.90% -1.85% 1.48% 1.86%
8 1/12/2015 -3.15% 0.05% 2.67% 2.72%
9 2/11/2015 -3.61% -0.10% 2.58% 2.64%
10 1/10/2015 -1.66% 0.91% 3.22% 3.10%
11 1/9/2015 -4.68% -0.47% 2.35% 2.45%
12 3/8/2015 -2.84% 0.49% 2.95% 2.88%
13 1/7/2015 0.91% 2.34% 4.10% 3.72%
14 2/6/2015 2.38% 3.08% 4.56% 4.05%
15 1/5/2015 3.37% 3.57% 4.86% 4.26%
16 1/4/2015 4.60% 4.17% 5.23% 4.52%
17 2/3/2015 4.25% 4.03% 5.11% 4.43%
18 2/2/2015 3.85% 3.87% 4.99% 4.33%
19 2/1/2015 3.86% 3.88% 4.97% 4.32%
20 1/12/2014 3.69% 3.81% 4.90% 4.26%
21 3/11/2014 3.62% 3.81% 4.87% 4.24%
22 1/10/2014 2.84% 3.46% 4.61% 4.04%
23 1/9/2014 3.01% 3.56% 4.65% 4.06%
24 1/8/2014 3.76% 3.94% 4.86% 4.21%
25 1/7/2014 4.48% 4.30% 5.06% 4.34%
26 2/6/2014 3.23% 3.72% 4.65% 4.04%
27 2/5/2014 3.95% 4.05% 4.82% 4.16%
28 1/4/2014 3.82% 3.98% 4.74% 4.08%
29 3/3/2014 3.31% 3.63% 4.49% 3.88%
30 3/2/2014 2.86% 3.25% 4.24% 3.67%
31 2/1/2014 2.35% 2.82% 3.97% 3.44%
32 2/12/2013 4.60% 3.77% 4.58% 3.85%
33 1/11/2013 5.18% 3.93% 4.67% 3.88%
34 1/10/2013 6.07% 4.24% 4.86% 3.99%
35 2/9/2013 5.98% 4.10% 4.77% 3.89%
36 1/8/2013 4.42% 3.37% 4.34% 3.50%
37 1/7/2013 6.89% 4.66% 5.20% 4.06%
38 3/6/2013 6.07% 4.36% 5.02% 3.88%
39 1/5/2013 8.04% 5.44% 5.70% 4.34%
40 1/4/2013 8.71% 5.93% 5.97% 4.51%
41 1/3/2013 8.05% 5.78% 5.81% 4.37%
42 1/2/2013 7.66% 5.75% 5.71% 4.29%
43 2/1/2013 7.85% 6.00% 5.80% 4.35%
44 3/12/2012 6.52% 5.51% 5.44% 4.06%
45 1/11/2012 5.26% 5.08% 5.12% 3.80%
46 1/10/2012 4.78% 5.04% 5.03% 3.74%
47 3/9/2012 4.95% 5.30% 5.16% 3.83%
48 1/8/2012 4.40% 5.23% 5.05% 3.76%
49 2/7/2012 4.47% 5.42% 5.12% 3.82%
50 1/6/2012 2.27% 4.54% 4.50% 3.37%
51 1/5/2012 0.64% 3.94% 4.07% 3.05%
52 2/4/2012 3.37% 5.37% 4.95% 3.73%
53 1/3/2012 3.73% 5.65% 5.10% 3.85%
54 1/2/2012 3.47% 5.63% 5.06% 3.83%
55 3/1/2012 2.27% 5.16% 4.72% 3.59%
56 1/12/2011 -1.58% 3.47% 3.59% 2.75%
57 1/11/2011 -0.80% 3.95% 3.86% 2.97%
58 3/10/2011 1.40% 5.10% 4.54% 3.50%
59 1/9/2011 -1.21% 4.00% 3.76% 2.93%
60 1/8/2011 1.88% 5.55% 4.69% 3.64%
61 1/7/2011 5.94% 7.47% 5.90% 4.56%
62 1/6/2011 5.26% 7.17% 5.66% 4.39%
63 2/5/2011 5.91% 7.48% 5.83% 4.53%
64 1/4/2011 6.25% 7.64% 5.89% 4.58%
65 1/3/2011 5.54% 7.34% 5.65% 4.42%
66 1/2/2011 4.45% 6.86% 5.29% 4.17%
67 3/1/2011 6.70% 7.91% 5.95% 4.68%
68 1/12/2010 7.00% 8.03% 6.00% 4.74%
69 1/11/2010 6.64% 7.83% 5.85% 4.65%
70 1/10/2010 6.82% 7.88% 5.86% 4.69%
71 1/9/2010 6.48% 7.68% 5.71% 4.60%
72 3/8/2010 4.77% 6.85% 5.15% 4.21%
73 1/7/2010 5.44% 7.12% 5.32% 4.35%
74 1/6/2010 3.53% 6.22% 4.71% 3.91%
75 3/5/2010 2.52% 5.71% 4.37% 3.66%
76 1/4/2010 5.75% 7.19% 5.31% 4.37%
77 1/3/2010 4.81% 6.69% 4.98% 4.14%
78 1/2/2010 3.10% 5.84% 4.41% 3.72%
79 4/1/2010 3.21% 5.84% 4.40% 3.72%
80 1/12/2009 5.52% 6.85% 5.06% 4.23%
81 2/11/2009 3.43% 5.79% 4.37% 3.72%
82 1/10/2009 2.45% 5.26% 4.01% 3.48%
83 1/9/2009 2.98% 5.44% 4.12% 3.58%
84 3/8/2009 1.98% 4.92% 3.75% 3.33%
85 1/7/2009 3.21% 5.41% 4.07% 3.58%
86 1/6/2009 -1.83% 2.97% 2.45% 2.41%
87 1/5/2009 -1.71% 2.95% 2.43% 2.41%
88 1/4/2009 -9.69% -0.85% -0.08% 0.59%
89 2/3/2009 -15.14% -3.39% -1.77% -0.61%
90 2/2/2009 -18.21% -4.74% -2.69% -1.25%
91 2/1/2009 -14.17% -2.77% -1.44% -0.30%
92 1/12/2008 -13.84% -2.54% -1.34% -0.19%
93 3/11/2008 -14.60% -2.84% -1.59% -0.33%
94 1/10/2008 -13.00% -2.06% -1.12% 0.06%
95 1/9/2008 -1.18% 3.49% 2.48% 2.72%
96 1/8/2008 5.12% 6.48% 4.34% 4.11%
97 1/7/2008 8.12% 7.93% 5.16% 4.74%
98 2/6/2008 8.81% 8.21% 5.26% 4.82%
99 1/5/2008 12.33% 9.79% 6.23% 5.55%
100 1/4/2008 12.42% 9.68% 6.09% 5.47%
101 3/3/2008 11.37% 8.97% 5.59% 5.12%
102 1/2/2008 12.24% 9.16% 5.70% 5.22%
103 2/1/2008 12.30% 8.98% 5.55% 5.14%
104 3/12/2007 18.54% 11.79% 7.39% 6.51%
105 1/11/2007 19.52% 12.08% 7.56%
106 1/10/2007 22.79% 13.47% 8.49%
107 3/9/2007 22.37% 13.12% 8.25%
108 1/8/2007 19.81% 11.69% 7.30%
109 2/7/2007 21.83% 12.51% 7.86%
110 1/6/2007 22.28% 12.57% 7.91%
111 2/5/2007 22.32% 12.45% 7.83%
112 2/4/2007 21.14% 11.76% 7.38%
113 1/3/2007 20.07% 11.13% 6.97%
114 1/2/2007 18.91% 10.48% 6.56%
115 3/1/2007 19.45% 10.64% 6.68%
116 1/12/2006 18.08% 9.87% 6.19%
117 1/11/2006 16.57% 9.01% 5.63%
118 2/10/2006 15.13% 8.16% 5.09%
119 1/9/2006 13.68% 7.28% 4.52%
120 1/8/2006 12.82% 6.68% 4.15%
121 3/7/2006 12.50% 6.42% 4.00%
122 1/6/2006 12.55% 6.36% 3.98%
123 2/5/2006 11.94% 5.98% 3.75%
124 3/4/2006 15.49% 7.64% 4.88%
125 1/3/2006 14.60% 7.10% 4.55%
126 1/2/2006 14.06% 6.73% 4.33%
127 3/1/2006 13.13% 6.21% 4.02%
128 1/12/2005 12.21% 5.71% 3.73%
129 1/11/2005 11.55% 5.34% 3.53%
130 3/10/2005 10.24% 4.66% 3.13%
131 1/9/2005 11.77% 5.39% 3.67%
132 1/8/2005 11.36% 5.16% 3.56%
133 1/7/2005 12.63% 5.79% 4.01%
134 1/6/2005 10.40% 4.66% 3.28%
135 3/5/2005 9.56% 4.22% 3.02%
136 1/4/2005 9.01% 3.90% 2.82%
137 1/3/2005 9.29% 4.05% 2.95%
138 1/2/2005 8.90% 3.85% 2.84%
139 3/1/2005 8.48% 3.65% 2.72%
140 1/12/2004 7.90% 3.37% 2.56%
141 1/11/2004 7.09% 3.00% 2.34%
142 1/10/2004 6.13% 2.53% 2.07%
143 1/9/2004 6.19% 2.55% 2.13%
144 2/8/2004 4.85% 1.86% 1.72%
145 1/7/2004 4.24% 1.56% 1.56%
146 1/6/2004 3.03% 0.97% 1.21%
147 3/5/2004 1.85% 0.40% 0.88%
148 1/4/2004 2.99% 0.95% 1.29%
149 1/3/2004 3.34% 1.10% 1.44%
150 3/2/2004 4.10% 1.40% 1.68%
151 2/1/2004 3.45% 0.94% 1.45%
152 1/12/2003 1.78% -0.02% 0.89%
153 3/11/2003 0.78% -0.65% 0.55%
154 1/10/2003 1.14% -0.57% 0.67%
155 1/9/2003 -0.82% -1.74% -0.02%
156 1/8/2003 -1.12% -2.18% -0.24%
157 1/7/2003 -1.56% -2.76% -0.54%
158 2/6/2003 -4.30% -4.37% -1.53%
159 2/5/2003 -7.03% -5.97% -2.50%
160 1/4/2003 -9.20% -7.20% -3.20%
161 3/3/2003 -9.79% -7.52% -3.33%
162 4/2/2003 -9.79% -7.47% -3.22%
163 2/1/2003 -9.38% -7.22% -2.98%
164 2/12/2002 -7.72% -6.42% -2.39%
165 1/11/2002 -6.24% -5.63%
166 1/10/2002 -4.24% -4.54%
167 2/9/2002 -7.66% -6.27%
168 1/8/2002 -3.84% -4.16%
169 1/7/2002 -3.42% -3.85%
170 3/6/2002 -2.38% -3.22%
171 2/5/2002 0.48% -1.66%
172 1/4/2002 1.62% -1.00%
173 1/3/2002 3.30% -0.07%
174 1/2/2002 1.22% -1.03%
175 2/1/2002 2.72% -0.18%
176 3/12/2001 -1.28% -2.12%
177 1/11/2001 -5.38% -4.08%
178 1/10/2001 -9.00% -5.78%
179 3/9/2001 -10.90% -6.59%
180 1/8/2001 -2.49% -2.16%
181 2/7/2001 -1.49% -1.54%
182 1/6/2001 -0.18% -0.79%
183 2/5/2001 -2.04% -1.61%
184 2/4/2001 -0.65% -0.79%
185 1/3/2001 -2.02% -1.36%
186 1/2/2001 3.87% 1.70%
187 2/1/2001 4.63% 2.19%
188 1/12/2000 3.22% 1.63%
189 1/11/2000 3.65% 1.98%
190 2/10/2000 4.09% 2.34%
191 1/9/2000 4.46% 2.64%
192 1/8/2000 7.26% 4.15%
193 3/7/2000 5.47% 3.36%
194 1/6/2000 5.19% 3.28%
195 2/5/2000 0.12% 0.84%
196 3/4/2000 7.39% 4.49%
197 1/3/2000 6.85% 4.27%
198 1/2/2000 6.64% 4.21%
199 3/1/2000 8.58% 5.20%
200 1/12/1999 12.61% 7.20%
201 1/11/1999 8.79% 5.38%
202 1/10/1999 5.36% 3.78%
203 1/9/1999 4.79% 3.62%
204 2/8/1999 6.51% 4.55%
205 1/7/1999 6.98% 4.87%
206 1/6/1999 7.36% 5.13%
207 3/5/1999 2.25% 2.75%
208 1/4/1999 1.77% 2.64%
209 1/3/1999 -7.36% -1.63%
210 1/2/1999 -10.78% -3.10%
211 4/1/1999 -10.65% -2.81%
212 1/12/1998 -12.14% -3.29%
213 2/11/1998 -11.81% -2.86%
214 1/10/1998 -19.64% -6.30%
215 1/9/1998 -32.85% -12.13%
216 3/8/1998 -39.04% -14.53%
217 1/7/1998 -28.37% -9.20%
218 1/6/1998 -28.92% -9.17%
219 4/5/1998 -21.38% -5.46%
220 1/4/1998 -13.63% -1.68%
221 2/3/1998 -9.90% 0.19%
222 2/2/1998 -10.30% 0.15%
223 2/1/1998 -21.87% -4.92%
224 1/12/1997 -13.03% -0.74%
225 3/11/1997 -9.38%
226 1/10/1997 -11.29%
227 1/9/1997 -2.19%
228 1/8/1997 -5.18%
229 1/7/1997 -1.36%
230 2/6/1997 -0.68%
231 2/5/1997 1.11%
232 1/4/1997 0.12%
233 3/3/1997 1.73%
234 3/2/1997 4.31%
235 3/1/1997 4.97%
236 2/12/1996 5.23%
237 1/11/1996 5.00%
238 1/10/1996 3.36%
239 2/9/1996 5.39%
240 1/8/1996 5.30%
241 1/7/1996 4.82%
242 3/6/1996 8.31%
243 2/5/1996 9.19%
244 1/4/1996 10.76%
245 1/3/1996 10.58%
246 1/2/1996 11.66%
247 2/1/1996 12.13%
248 1/12/1995 9.64%
249 1/11/1995 7.71%
250 2/10/1995 7.82%
251 1/9/1995 8.48%
252 1/8/1995 9.43%
253 3/7/1995 9.94%
254 1/6/1995 9.00%
255 2/5/1995 10.69%
256 3/4/1995 8.98%
257 1/3/1995 9.58%
258 2/2/1995 10.35%
259 3/1/1995 9.75%
260 1/12/1994 12.64%
261 1/11/1994 12.91%
262 3/10/1994 15.35%
263 1/9/1994 14.95%
264 1/8/1994 14.93%
265 1/7/1994 13.49%
266 1/6/1994 14.06%
267 3/5/1994 15.28%
268 4/4/1994 15.83%
269 1/3/1994 12.54%
270 1/2/1994 17.21%
271 3/1/1994 17.58%
272 1/12/1993 19.28%
273 1/11/1993 14.48%
274 1/10/1993 15.04%
275 1/9/1993 13.79%
276 2/8/1993 14.19%
277 1/7/1993 10.69%
278 2/6/1993 10.84%
279 3/5/1993 13.00%
280 1/4/1993 11.14%
281 1/3/1993 9.02%
282 1/2/1993 9.33%
283 4/1/1993 8.74%
284 1/12/1992 6.80%
285 2/11/1992
286 1/10/1992
287 1/9/1992
288 3/8/1992
289 1/7/1992
290 1/6/1992
291 4/5/1992
292 1/4/1992
293 2/3/1992
294 3/2/1992
295 2/1/1992
296 2/12/1991
297 1/11/1991
298 2/10/1991
299 2/9/1991
300 1/8/1991
301 1/7/1991
302 3/6/1991
303 2/5/1991
304 2/4/1991
305 1/3/1991
306 1/2/1991
307 2/1/1991
308 3/12/1990
309 1/11/1990
310 1/10/1990
311 3/9/1990
312 1/8/1990
313 2/7/1990
314 1/6/1990
315 2/5/1990
316 2/4/1990
317 1/3/1990
318 1/2/1990
319 2/1/1990
320 1/12/1989
321 1/11/1989
322 2/10/1989
323 1/9/1989
324 1/8/1989
325 3/7/1989
326 1/6/1989
327 2/5/1989
328 3/4/1989
329 1/3/1989
330 1/2/1989
331 3/1/1989
332 1/12/1988
333 1/11/1988
334 3/10/1988
335 1/9/1988
336 1/8/1988
337 1/7/1988
338 1/6/1988
339 3/5/1988
340 5/4/1988
341 1/3/1988
342 1/2/1988
343 4/1/1988

References:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rollingreturns.asp
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/
http://www.spdrs.com.sg/etf/fund/fund_detail_STTF.html
http://www.nikkoam.com.sg/etf/sti
 
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hindsight

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Very few investments will yield 8% long run in the current macroeconomic environment. I'd be happy with 5% given the fact that govvies yield next to nothing now.
 

OngHuatHuat

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The return will be a gone case if you only take dca recent 5 years and without recent huge run up. :)

In late 90's and early 20's, Singapore experience huge economy growth and population growth, these 2 important factors help to boost stock market and property market return.

Recent years, do we really see such a strong population and economy growth? Normally these two factors also mean high inflation rate.

Last year, Singapore almost fell into deflation.
 
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T H I N K

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Returns are calculated on a rolling basis. As an example, you will achieve 0.96% pa (based on price) if you held STI for exactly 20 years and sold at the start of the year 2016 (bolded in table).

Transaction costs are not included. Returns DO NOT include dividends. You can expect an additional 3-4% returns from dividends based on historical data.

Some of the findings are:
1) Sad to say this, we should stop expecting an annualized returns of 8%. A realistic return to expect for Singapore market would be 5% pa.

1. Can u explain how u get 5% pa return? 0.96% + 3-4%?

2. Can u explain how u get 3-4% returns from dividends? Dividend/STI ETF price when declared?
 
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OngHuatHuat

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sTMnoZN.jpg


Not so sure why initial year the dividend yield can be so high and now can be so low.

Maybe you can enlighten me on this?

1. Can u explain how u get 5% pa return? 0.96% + 3-4%?

2. Can u explain how u get 3-4% returns from dividends? Dividend/STI price when declared?
 
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T H I N K

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Not so sure why initial year the dividend yield can be so high and now can be so low.

Maybe you can enlighten me on this?

There was a stock split in 2008, that's why when I calculate the returns for STI ETF with dividends reinvested, I only chose to do it from 2009 to 2016, and guess what, it is less than 2.5% on your capital invested !

U dun get 3-4% dividends on your capital invested, pls bear in mind how this is computed by the fund manager!
 
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hindsight

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The return will be a gone case if you only take dca recent 5 years and without recent huge run up. :)

In late 90's and early 20's, Singapore experience huge economy growth and population growth, these 2 important factors help to boost stock market and property market return.

Recent years, do we really see such a strong population and economy growth? Normally these two factors also mean high inflation rate.

Last year, Singapore almost fell into deflation.

Its rather silly to assume that SG companies are automatically doomed as soon as local population growth starts to taper off. Many of the index constituents on STI don't even sell their products in SG, Wilmar's major market is China, and Singtel gets a huge % of their revenue from Optus in Australia. Banks like DBS have significant business operations in Asean and China, OCBC's subsidiary, Wing Hang, is based in HK China.
 

Maeda_Toshiie

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Japan is probably even more export oriented than Singapore, but study the Nikkei or Topix.
 

OngHuatHuat

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Well, this is what we can confirm from sti etf since last few years.

And I really think you are very smart to call
Me silly. :)

Its rather silly to assume that SG companies are automatically doomed as soon as local population growth starts to taper off. Many of the index constituents on STI don't even sell their products in SG, Wilmar's major market is China, and Singtel gets a huge % of their revenue from Optus in Australia. Banks like DBS have significant business operations in Asean and China, OCBC's subsidiary, Wing Hang, is based in HK China.
 

hindsight

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Japan is probably even more export oriented than Singapore, but study the Nikkei or Topix.

No it isn't. Japan's domestic consumption is around 60% of GDP, while SG's is barely 1/3 of the economy.

Besides, Japanese stocks and real estate were at ridiculous valuations in the 90s, the crash was inevitable and it merely took the Nikkei's P/E down from a sky high 70 to 20, real estate prices also crashed nearly 80% in Tokyo but Tokyo real estate is still one of the most expensive in the world, that alone should tell you what went on in the 90s.

Unless you expect STI's P/E to halve from current levels (~13) and property prices to crash 90% here, there is no sense in trying to compare the 2.
 

OngHuatHuat

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Return for sti etf in recent 3 years after sg enters low inflation era is negative. :s22:

5GrnlnH.jpg



No it isn't. Japan's domestic consumption is around 60% of GDP, while SG's is barely 1/3 of the economy.

Besides, Japanese stocks and real estate were at ridiculous valuations in the 90s, the crash was inevitable and it merely took the Nikkei's P/E down from a sky high 70 to 20, real estate prices also crashed nearly 80% in Tokyo but Tokyo real estate is still one of the most expensive in the world, that alone should tell you what went on in the 90s.

Unless you expect STI's P/E to halve from current levels (~13) and property prices to crash 90% here, there is no sense in trying to compare the 2.
 

hindsight

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Well, this is what we can confirm from sti etf since last few years.

And I really think you are very smart to call
Me silly. :)

As if the STI is the only index to have done poorly in the last few years. Why don't you look at China (SG's largest trade partner) or the HK market?

Measured in local currency I'd say that the STI has done reasonably well considering the headwinds.
 

hindsight

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Return for sti etf in recent 3 years after sg enters low inflation era is negative. :s22:

5GrnlnH.jpg

Inflation is very low in the US as well, why is the S&P and the Dow at record highs?

But you don't even know how DCA works, what would you know about inflation? :s13:
 

OngHuatHuat

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Their performance for these 2 years are not that good too. :s22:

My argument comes with charts etc, whereas yours is just calling people silly or personal attack.

Haha....:)

Inflation is very low in the US as well, why is the S&P and the Dow at record highs?

But you don't even know how DCA works, what would you know about inflation? :s13:
 

OngHuatHuat

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Which means etf is not the low risk instrument anymore.


As if the STI is the only index to have done poorly in the last few years. Why don't you look at China (SG's largest trade partner) or the HK market?

Measured in local currency I'd say that the STI has done reasonably well considering the headwinds.
 
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