WussRedXLi
Greater Supremacy Member
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- Jun 15, 2001
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I know some who dropped from 38 min level to 58+ min level within 2 years of ORD, but 2.4km nia
Wow 2 years. Think 2 years is just nice for COVID era, from beginning in Apr 2020 to Apr 2022 (i remember omicron peaking around 1st week of March).
Now i think if intensity and/or volume even reduce 50% from peak also the detraining might be quite terok esp if one is truly performance oriented.
I think the same goes for 18-19 min 5k back to 28-30 min 5k (beginner level).
AI Overview
Yes, it is entirely possible to "detrain" or slow down from a 38-minute 10k to a 58-minute 10k within two years if training is stopped or significantly reduced
. A 38-minute 10k represents a high level of fitness (roughly 3:48/km or 6:07/mile), while a 58-minute 10k represents a recreational, moderate pace (roughly 5:48/km or 9:20/mile).
Reddit +4
Here is the breakdown of how this decline can happen and the science behind it:
- Significant VO2 Max Drop: After just 11 weeks of no training, an endurance athlete can lose roughly 25% of their VO2 max. Two years without structured training is more than enough time for cardiovascular capacity to drop significantly, allowing a 38-minute runner to fall to a 50+ minute 10k pace.
- Rapid Loss of Cardiovascular Fitness: While muscular strength stays for 4–6 weeks, aerobic fitness begins to decline after 2 weeks of not training.
- Muscle Fiber Changes: Within 8 weeks of inactivity, muscle mitochondria and oxidative capacity (crucial for endurance) decrease, specifically targeting the endurance fibers that allowed for the 38-minute pace.
- Impact of Lifestyle: If the reduction in training is accompanied by a change in diet, weight gain, or loss of muscular strength, the drop in speed will be faster and more pronounced.
Wahoo Fitness +2

