March BTO 2012

touchme

touchme

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all4none said:
Same here^^

I calculated the IL benefits is an opportunity cost that outweighs staying in a mature and near town estate.
Click to expand...
For new flats, no AHG no point. Resale $30k also no point for IL benefits.
 
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frozened

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jeffheng said:
May have go for this if Mar BTO fail.
Kallang/ Whampoa consider mature estate right?
any estimation price for it?
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kallang / whampoa will cost more leh cause its located within city boundaries. :D
prime land !


touchme said:
For new flats, no AHG no point. Resale $30k also no point for IL benefits.
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still any form of HG is good enough. provided you can afford it right? no point suffering if you buy a house beyond your means.
 
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Kaylin

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hi guys, i still dont know how to calculate the application rate. i applied for bukit batok skyline 3-room and i'm a second timer. out of 214 units got 459 applications, application rate for 1st vs 2nd timer is 1.1 : 8.1. i applied under priority scheme (staying near parents). would someone be kind enough to tell me how much chance i stand? thanks!! :)
 
Kevin10

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Kaylin said:
hi guys, i still dont know how to calculate the application rate. i applied for bukit batok skyline 3-room and i'm a second timer. out of 214 units got 459 applications, application rate for 1st vs 2nd timer is 1.1 : 8.1. i applied under priority scheme (staying near parents). would someone be kind enough to tell me how much chance i stand? thanks!! :)
Click to expand...

I nt sure hw also as us got priority scheme. But if nt, quite easy. Take it as 8.1 = 8.1 couple fighting for 1 flat.
 
touchme

touchme

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Kaylin said:
hi guys, i still dont know how to calculate the application rate. i applied for bukit batok skyline 3-room and i'm a second timer. out of 214 units got 459 applications, application rate for 1st vs 2nd timer is 1.1 : 8.1. i applied under priority scheme (staying near parents). would someone be kind enough to tell me how much chance i stand? thanks!! :)
Click to expand...
I dunno if this is right, but must assume some numbers too, for mcps schemes:-

5% of 214 allocated to 2nd timer means 10 units got 81 applicants. Assuming 30 staying near (x2 chance) and 10 starting with parents (x3 chance),
You have:
2 out of 41+60+30 = 1.52% chance of being in first 10 queue nos, i.e. assuming kelong/jump queue via MP, in ballot. 2/121 or slightly more chance in 2nd 10, etc..

Also take into account dropout rate of say 1 in 2, sou have 3+% off getting 1 flat.
 
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F3Rm1nat0r

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touchme said:
I dunno if this is right, but must assume some numbers too, for mcps schemes:-

5% of 214 allocated to 2nd timer means 10 units got 81 applicants. Assuming 30 staying near (x2 chance) and 10 starting with parents (x3 chance),
You have:
2 out of 41+60+30 = 1.52% chance of being in first 10 queue nos, i.e. assuming kelong/jump queue via MP, in ballot. 2/121 or slightly more chance in 2nd 10, etc..

Also take into account dropout rate of say 1 in 2, sou have 3+% off getting 1 flat.
Click to expand...
totally lost in your calculations, what do you mean by "41+60+30" ?
 
RedShoe

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touchme said:
I dunno if this is right, but must assume some numbers too, for mcps schemes:-

5% of 214 allocated to 2nd timer means 10 units got 81 applicants. Assuming 30 staying near (x2 chance) and 10 starting with parents (x3 chance),
You have:
2 out of 41+60+30 = 1.52% chance of being in first 10 queue nos, i.e. assuming kelong/jump queue via MP, in ballot. 2/121 or slightly more chance in 2nd 10, etc..

Also take into account dropout rate of say 1 in 2, sou have 3+% off getting 1 flat.
Click to expand...
Calculation doesnt seem right.
Your calculations is based on 81 applicants vying for 1 unit instead of 10 units. Probablity to be in first 10 queue nos should be around 10 times higher than 1.52%.
 
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all4none

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Kaylin said:
hi guys, i still dont know how to calculate the application rate. i applied for bukit batok skyline 3-room and i'm a second timer. out of 214 units got 459 applications, application rate for 1st vs 2nd timer is 1.1 : 8.1. i applied under priority scheme (staying near parents). would someone be kind enough to tell me how much chance i stand? thanks!! :)
Click to expand...

The way you calculate how many people applying for your flat is like this:

Take t as the allocation percentage and you get the following:
A) Mature estates
i) first timers: t = 0.95
ii) second timers: t = 0.05
B) Non-mature estates
i) first timers: t = 0.85
ii) second timers: t = 0.15

Now the formula to calculate how many applicants are fighting for the units available is:

Number of units for a specific flat type x Application rate for first/second timers x t

And the formula to calculate the number of flats available in your category (eg 3 room) is:

Number of units for a specific flat type x t

For your case the value of applications received are 214 x 8.1 x 0.15 = 260 and the number of units available are 214 x 0.15 = 32

So in conclusion there are 260 couples fighting for 32 units.

Now your question ask for number of chances and this is impossible to calculate with the info provided by hdb given the fact that you don't know how many of these couples are applying under the MCPS.

So, the best you can do is make assumptions. Assuming that 50% of the applications received fr second timers falls under the MCPS, which gives 2 chances instead of 1, then the number of balloting tickets would be (260 x 0.5 x 2) + (260 x 0.5 x 1) = 390.

You get 2 chances out of 390 to apply for one of the 32 units available.
 
touchme

touchme

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RedShoe said:
Calculation doesnt seem right.
Your calculations is based on 81 applicants vying for 1 unit instead of 10 units. Probablity to be in first 10 queue nos should be around 10 times higher than 1.52%.
Click to expand...
oh ya, shd be 15.2% then.

Dun know non-matured is 15% allocation to 2nd timers, so BB is about 45% to be first 32 units? So good?
 
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