More rate hikes ?

[DevilPlate]

Probability of another 25bps has just increased to 70%+ in next fomc meeting

 

[reddevil0728]

Probability of another 25bps has just increased to 70%+ in next fomc meeting

what just happened?

 

[DevilPlate]

what just happened?

Not sure it was ~55% few days ago
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

 

[fr33d0m]

inflation is very artificial now.

if there would be no war between Russia and Ukraine,relationship between US/Europe and Russia were to go back to normal, quite a big part of the inflation would be gone overnight.

Too bad that Fed has to be the one breaking the economy.

 

[reddevil0728]

inflation is very artificial now.

if there would be no war between Russia and Ukraine,relationship between US/Europe and Russia were to go back to normal, quite a big part of the inflation would be gone overnight.

Too bad that Fed has to be the one breaking the economy.

If war is considered the cause of artificial inflation.

what’s considered the cause of a natural inflation?

 

[BBCWatcher]

Probability of another 25bps has just increased to 70%+ in next fomc meeting

what just happened?

Not sure it was ~55% few days ago
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

The U.S. employment data for March was fairly strong.

 

[ahnyaahnya]

I foresee interest rates needs to hit 15% before something breaks. Once break, will need to wait 12-18 month before this collapse

Wishful thinking?

 

[andyhtc]

Interest rates in Singapore are falling while the US' are still going up

My guess is SGD is very strong and the government is very stable, and that attracts a lot of hot money.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/sin...a-rich-set-singapore-financial-sector-3182131

 

[havetheveryfun]

Probability of another 25bps has just increased to 70%+ in next fomc meeting

but like no poiint anymore cos the banks dont want to raise interest rates for deposits anymore

 

[BBCWatcher]

My guess is SGD is very strong and the government is very stable, and that attracts a lot of hot money.

I kind of doubt it, actually. Are there any data on net foreign inflows over time into Singapore dollar bank deposits and Singapore Government Securities?

One key difference is that there are roughly 10,000 deposit taking institutions in the United States with minimum US$250,000 deposit insurance. That’s a lot more competition for safer deposits, so it seems reasonable to assume interest rates paid on deposits will be more responsive in that environment. There’s also no limit to U.S. Treasury placements (no effective limits anyway), whereas here there’s an effective S$1 million limit per auction per participant. S$1 million sounds like a lot, but it’s not much at all for an organization trying to manage S$1 billion or more and their impact on interest rates. (The secondary U.S. Treasury market is hugely more liquid, too.)

And then we seem to have more than our fair share of households paying off their 2.6% HDB loans as fast as they can right now. Granted, the median household debt to income ratio is higher in Singapore compared to the U.S. Households here don’t seem too allergic to debt in the aggregate. But some of them behave very strangely even when ~3.9% T-bills exist.

The U.S. has nothing like CPF Ordinary Accounts, effectively compulsory saving for housing. (And not really SA, MA, or RA either, although those have analogs perhaps.) OAs might distort interest rates here.

It’s a bit of a puzzle, though. Fortunately if you want to grab some of the higher U.S. interest rates you can. U.S. Treasuries (for example) are rather easily available to residents of Singapore if you’d like some.

 

[DevilPlate]

UHNW PRCs fleeing over here to set up family offices and thus pushing everything up (speculative) except salary & deposit interest rate LOL

 

[aarontansp]

If war is considered the cause of artificial inflation.

what’s considered the cause of a natural inflation?

climate change? overfishing? dumping of radiated water into sea? deforestation? plastic pollution?

 

[reddevil0728]

climate change? overfishing? dumping of radiated water into sea? deforestation? plastic pollution?

But technically those are also artificial right? Since it’s initiated but human

 

[aarontansp]

But technically those are also artificial right? Since it’s initiated but human

Yes rightfully. War just alleviates it.

 

[BBCWatcher]

UHNW PRCs fleeing over here to set up family offices and thus pushing everything up (speculative) except salary & deposit interest rate LOL

Where are the data supporting this storyline?

I should point out that just because someone sets up a "family office" here doesn't mean there's much real impact on Singapore's local economy. There are potentially some wealth management, legal, and accounting labor hours associated with operating a family office based in Singapore, but that's as far as it goes really. (And it's all the government seems to argue, to its credit.) The family office manages whatever assets it has, and those assets typically have no particular connection to Singapore.

 

[touchring1]

inflation is very artificial now.

if there would be no war between Russia and Ukraine,relationship between US/Europe and Russia were to go back to normal, quite a big part of the inflation would be gone overnight.

It's artificial but doesn't mean it isn't real. The oil spike is artificial. Oil is suppose to go down due to covid and slowing economy but Russia started the war to push it up and SAudi Arabia followed by cutting output, pouring fire into water. So there are many things that can happen that can push inflation up further, such as more war. So, the Fed has to continue hiking rates until something breaks and it turns into deflation.

Too bad that Fed has to be the one breaking the economy.

The one that breaks inflation first is the one that will gain the most when the inflation bubble finally crashes...

 

[Cryophoenix]

I foresee interest rates needs to hit 15% before something breaks. Once break, will need to wait 12-18 month before this collapse

By then, SSB will offer 10% annual interest rate.

 

[reddevil0728]

By then, SSB will offer 10% annual interest rate.

heard of inverted yield curve?

 

[elvintay07]

I believe

I kind of doubt it, actually. Are there any data on net foreign inflows over time into Singapore dollar bank deposits and Singapore Government Securities?

One key difference is that there are roughly 10,000 deposit taking institutions in the United States with minimum US$250,000 deposit insurance. That’s a lot more competition for safer deposits, so it seems reasonable to assume interest rates paid on deposits will be more responsive in that environment. There’s also no limit to U.S. Treasury placements (no effective limits anyway), whereas here there’s an effective S$1 million limit per auction per participant. S$1 million sounds like a lot, but it’s not much at all for an organization trying to manage S$1 billion or more and their impact on interest rates. (The secondary U.S. Treasury market is hugely more liquid, too.)

And then we seem to have more than our fair share of households paying off their 2.6% HDB loans as fast as they can right now. Granted, the median household debt to income ratio is higher in Singapore compared to the U.S. Households here don’t seem too allergic to debt in the aggregate. But some of them behave very strangely even when ~3.9% T-bills exist.

The U.S. has nothing like CPF Ordinary Accounts, effectively compulsory saving for housing. (And not really SA, MA, or RA either, although those have analogs perhaps.) OAs might distort interest rates here.

It’s a bit of a puzzle, though. Fortunately if you want to grab some of the higher U.S. interest rates you can. U.S. Treasuries (for example) are rather easily available to residents of Singapore if you’d like some.

if you are China Chinese, I think you won’t put ur family office in US. Singapore low tax and pro foreigner. I doubt you will enjoy this kind of perks in US. Furthermore, what if 1 day US freeze/ sanction your account?

 

[BBCWatcher]

if you are China Chinese, I think you won’t put ur family office in US. Singapore low tax and pro foreigner. I doubt you will enjoy this kind of perks in US. Furthermore, what if 1 day US freeze/ sanction your account?

I'm not sure what point you're responding to, but I hope you're aware that family office locations have nothing in particular to do with where assets under management are located or taxed.