Prior to 2012, the stock was mostly an ignored, undervalued Thai company listed in
the Singapore market and was perceived as a dividend stock that attracted some
buying interest only when implied yields reached a compelling 5-6% level.
Interest in THBEV was sparked in 2012 when the company and its unlisted sister
company TCC Land engaged in a heated M&A competition for Fraser & Neave
(FNN SP), which later become THBEV’s 28% associate. THBEV’s share price rose
63% in FY12, outperforming STI by 44% and SET by 26%. The restructuring that
followed led to the spin-off of FNN’s property business as Frasers Centrepoint (FCL
SP) and helped unlock value in FNN’s property business. THBEV’s share price
rallied threefold over 2012-2014 (outperforming STI by 170% and SET by 147%),
after which it slid in 2015 on a lack of activities and weak earnings momentum.
Interest in the stock resumed in 2016 for two reasons. First was the beer business’s
turnaround, where its major rebranding exercise prompted 10pct market share gains
within one year, driving the segment’s bottom line from black to green (more details
in this note). Second was the inclusion in MSCI. THBEV was previously not eligible
to be included in MSCI calculations, despite its sizable market capitalization, due to
the difference between its listing market and functioning country. However, the
change in MSCI that allowed for THBEV to be included in MSCI Thailand in early
2016 leveled up interest in the stock
thats is scary
