*Official* MasterLeong Thread - Part 2

[Growmymoney]

rallying for the budget day ?

 

[Takodoro]

sabana reit boat left port lol

Shifu, how far out is Sabana boat?

I think this tick all the check box for distressed investing?

 

[Growmymoney]

From daiwa capital market


What's new: StarHub’s 2017 guidance is as puzzling as it is ominous, in
our opinion, as it implies a sharp deterioration in profitability. As this is
worse than our already low expectations (our 2017E EPS was 10% below
consensus before the results), we think the shares could come under
selling pressure in the coming weeks.
What's the impact: The 4Q16 earnings missed our forecast by 15%,
mainly on account of higher-than-anticipated handset subsidies, network
repair costs and provisions. However, revenue trends surprised us
positively as fixed service and mobile service revenues recovered strongly
after being stagnant during the first three quarters of 2016.
The relatively good revenue performance was, however, eclipsed by the
company’s guidance for 2017. StarHub guides for: 1) service revenues to
remain flat YoY, and 2) a service EBITDA margin of 26-28%, a decline of
3.2-5.2pp compared to 2016. In addition, the company is cutting its 2017
dividend to SGD0.16 (vs. SGD0.20 for 2016). Both the magnitude and
timing of the cut were a surprise to us; we had earlier forecasted for DPS to
stay flat for 2017 and decline to SGD0.19 from 2018.
The EBITDA margin guidance is perplexing as it implies 4-7% YoY increase
in operational expenses for 2017, compared to less than 1% YoY increase
seen over the past five years. Management indicated that the company
plans to spend more on network repairs, staffing and customer retention
activities, but none of these factors alone appear sufficient to explain the
magnitudes involved. We think the company may have decided to lower
market expectations in one stroke instead of having to do so again in 2H17,
depending on how the competition might evolve in the lead-up to the new
entrant’s launch in early 2018. As the extent of deterioration due to
competition remains unclear for now, our forecasts are based on the topend
of the company’s EBITDA margin guidance.
We lower our 2017-18E EPS by 7.0-8.0% as we cut our EBITDA margin
forecasts by 1.3-1.6pp.
What we recommend: We have revised down our DDM-based 12-month
target price to SGD2.31 (from SGD2.56). As we anticipate 23% downside
to our target price, we lower our rating to Sell (5) from Underperform (4).
Key risk: a better-than-expected EBITDA trend.
How we differ: Our 2017-18 EPS forecasts are significantly below those of
the Bloomberg consensus as we are more bearish than the market on the
company’s EBITDA prospects.

 

[lewissac]

yeah. vested in st only

but see the result and price like very cui now even before tpg starts operation, dont have the confidence to enter haha

Same same... I will only enter then priced very low for ST and SH.

 

[akwl88]

From daiwa capital market


What's new: StarHub’s 2017 guidance is as puzzling as it is ominous, in
our opinion, as it implies a sharp deterioration in profitability. As this is
worse than our already low expectations (our 2017E EPS was 10% below
consensus before the results), we think the shares could come under
selling pressure in the coming weeks.
What's the impact: The 4Q16 earnings missed our forecast by 15%,
mainly on account of higher-than-anticipated handset subsidies, network
repair costs and provisions. However, revenue trends surprised us
positively as fixed service and mobile service revenues recovered strongly
after being stagnant during the first three quarters of 2016.
The relatively good revenue performance was, however, eclipsed by the
company’s guidance for 2017. StarHub guides for: 1) service revenues to
remain flat YoY, and 2) a service EBITDA margin of 26-28%, a decline of
3.2-5.2pp compared to 2016. In addition, the company is cutting its 2017
dividend to SGD0.16 (vs. SGD0.20 for 2016). Both the magnitude and
timing of the cut were a surprise to us; we had earlier forecasted for DPS to
stay flat for 2017 and decline to SGD0.19 from 2018.
The EBITDA margin guidance is perplexing as it implies 4-7% YoY increase
in operational expenses for 2017, compared to less than 1% YoY increase
seen over the past five years. Management indicated that the company
plans to spend more on network repairs, staffing and customer retention
activities, but none of these factors alone appear sufficient to explain the
magnitudes involved. We think the company may have decided to lower
market expectations in one stroke instead of having to do so again in 2H17,
depending on how the competition might evolve in the lead-up to the new
entrant’s launch in early 2018. As the extent of deterioration due to
competition remains unclear for now, our forecasts are based on the topend
of the company’s EBITDA margin guidance.
We lower our 2017-18E EPS by 7.0-8.0% as we cut our EBITDA margin
forecasts by 1.3-1.6pp.
What we recommend: We have revised down our DDM-based 12-month
target price to SGD2.31 (from SGD2.56). As we anticipate 23% downside
to our target price, we lower our rating to Sell (5) from Underperform (4).
Key risk: a better-than-expected EBITDA trend.
How we differ: Our 2017-18 EPS forecasts are significantly below those of
the Bloomberg consensus as we are more bearish than the market on the
company’s EBITDA prospects.

wow $2.31?

 

[MasterLeong]

Shifu, how far out is Sabana boat?

I think this tick all the check box for distressed investing?

sabana boat gone, do not chase ba

 

[MasterLeong]

ML, what will be a good price to enter FCT for now?

2.00 or less can jiak FCT or CMT

 

[Squaredot]

I thought FCT boat left already long ago.

can consider CMT?
it's now about 10c cheaper than FCT

 

[goh6570]

StarHub Eighteenth Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held at Meeting Room 331, Level 3,
Suntec Singapore Convention & Exhibition Centre, 1 Raffles Boulevard, Suntec City, Singapore 039593 on 19 April 2016 at 10.00 a.m.

For those who vested in this counter.

ML - u attending?

 

[MasterLeong]

StarHub Eighteenth Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held at Meeting Room 331, Level 3,
Suntec Singapore Convention & Exhibition Centre, 1 Raffles Boulevard, Suntec City, Singapore 039593 on 19 April 2016 at 10.00 a.m.

For those who vested in this counter.

ML - u attending?

I never miss any of my AGM one

 

[MasterLeong]

can consider CMT?
it's now about 10c cheaper than FCT

CMT is really quite cheap now, close to 1 times book

 

[lewissac]

StarHub Eighteenth Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held at Meeting Room 331, Level 3,
Suntec Singapore Convention & Exhibition Centre, 1 Raffles Boulevard, Suntec City, Singapore 039593 on 19 April 2016 at 10.00 a.m.

For those who vested in this counter.

ML - u attending?

How to attend

 

[MasterLeong]

Lower dividends should be
sustainable
We project new entrant TPG to gain 8.5% mobile revenue share by
2022. With an annual EBITDA of A$775m and net debt-to-EBITDA
of 1.6x as at end-FY16 (July year-end), TPG has enough room to roll
out a nationwide mobile network. Hence, we believe the impact on
the incumbents from TPG’s entry will be acute, and project TPG to
secure 8.5% revenue share by 2022. In our bull-case and bear case
scenarios for the existing telcos, we project TPG to secure 6% &
10% revenue share respectively.
Lower NGNBN grant income and handset subsidies hit bottom line.
4Q16 net profit of S$ 54.0m (-33% y-o-y, -37% q-o-q) was well
below our expectations due to faster than expected decline in NextGeneration
National Broadband Network (NGNBN) grant income
and higher handset subsidies. Other income decreased by S$9.2m yo-y
as grant income declined. On the other hand, handset subsidies
rose to S$ 91.4m (+26 y-o-y, +58% q-o-q) as iPhone 7 was quite
popular due to hiccups at Samsung.
Lower dividends sustainable in our view. StarHub expects service
EBITDA margins to drop to 26%-28% in FY17, due to lower grant
income and higher costs. In addition, the company has cut its
dividend to 4 Scts per quarter in FY17 from 5 Scts in FY16. The
revised dividend levels should be sustainable in our view,
considering that StarHub is likely to see cashflow improvements due
to the higher level of network sharing with M1.
Valuation:
Maintain HOLD with a revised TP of S$2.85. Our revised DCFbased
(WACC 6.5%, terminal growth 0%) TP is S$2.85, as we
factor in the contraction of earnings in the near future. The
counter offers ~5% yield currently. Our bull-case and bear case
*** for StarHub are S$3.24 and S$2.68 assuming 6% and 10%
revenue share for TPG by 2022 respectively.
Key Risks to Our View:
Limited uptake of TPG’s services could reduce the threat to mobile
market share. As an inexperienced operator, TPG could struggle to
deploy and maintain a network that could challenge the network
quality of the incumbents. In this scenario, we expect TPG to only
capture 6% of the revenue share from the incumbents. Under this
bull-case scenario, our TP is S$ 3.24 for StarHub.

 

[MasterLeong]

How to attend

bring yourself and IC

 

[MasterLeong]

Mobile business to perform better than its local peer M1.
StarHub has a lower reliance on mobile revenue (~49% in 4Q16
vs. ~70% for M1) and a stickier, less price sensitive customer
base. StarHub has also introduced more fixed-mobile bundling
offers to reduce revenue share loss to a new entrant. As a
result, we expect StarHub to be less affected by the entry of a
fourth player compared to its local peer M1. We expect
StarHub’s revenue share to drop from 30% in 2015 to 27% by
2022. As a result, we expect group earnings to drop by 25%
from 2015’s level by 2022

 

[Mancunian2]

ocbc usually gets it wrong rite? i think i should buy starhub soon

Sent from 金鸡 using GAGT

you see them no up?

I think the analeak is 1st class honours from NTU one hor

 

[[M]aiev]

U google lor

Investing note


So many of us on it, which is good
We comment and like each other posts to get points
Then we all get ntuc vouchers together hahahaha

 

[Mancunian2]

I never miss any of my AGM one

which one got the best buffet ?

 

[MasterLeong]

he only positive thing is that the 16 cents dividends will be paid and sustainable from 2017/18/19
that's all, everything else about starhub looks bad LOL

 

[MasterLeong]

which one got the best buffet ?

I aim to get many $20 vouchers nia